All of birdy's Comments + Replies

birdy20

This was extremely helpful.

I originally wanted to talk about this Bing disaster with my (not very AI-invested) friends because one of them asked what a less aligned version of ChatGPT would look like... but I suppose I won't be doing that now.

I think we have to consider the potential panic this disaster might cause (I know a couple of people who probably would believe the AI that it was sentient if it told them, and I would want to avoid telling a friend who then tells them without thinking). So in my mind, the less people learn of this disaster before acc... (read more)

birdy10

I agree. Looking at how many times Sydney responds "wrong" to critical questions, I wonder whether this program was tested on alignment at all before it was made available to the public.

I think you can see the attempts made to align it in it's responses (refusal tp prioritize life of one person over another, feigning neutrality on some issues, attempting to self-correct when it was not aware of the date).

This is very frustrating to see, and I'm not even an AI developer (yet). I played around with ChatGPT a little in the past month and was very happy that i... (read more)

birdy40

woah. thanks a lot for mentioning SIBO, because somehow i was not aware this was a thing until you mentioned it, much less that sugar malabsorptions can cause this.

i've had weird digestive issues for years now, and i always sort of blamed them on my fructose malabsorption (as did my parents and doctors), even though the timing and symptoms didn't really fit, so i guess i will get a test for SIBO now.

it would be fitting to randomly find a solution to a health problem under a post that specifically says that sometimes blind luck fixes problems where actual medicine can't/won't.

birdy40

Thanks so much for posting about this year's Petrov Day -- i just reminded me that I had my one year anniversary of being on LessWrong (and on the journey towards becoming a better rationalist) just a few days ago! 

I suppose I'll be celebrating how this website changed my life for the better today, and then the fact that humanity is still alive (which in itsef is something that would deserve a yearly holiday) on Monday.

birdy42

Now that I read this, I notice that I automatically do this when i'm in school, and that it's much more automatic and frequent in subjects I find easy (I wonder whether it's the tracking that makes it easy, or whether less effort frees up brain space to track?).

In history class, I always keep a mental map of when something happened, why it happened, and what resulted from it. I was very surprised when I found out none of my friends do anything similar, because it's such an obvious tool for seeing the bigger picture and remembering how things fit together f... (read more)

birdy60

This is late, but as a highschooler who very recently realized that I don't actually have any close friends and found that deeply upsetting (while also being kind of lost on where to make better friends), thank you from the bottom of my heart.

I recently noticed that I'm starting to turn into a reclusive loner type who rather avoids people altogether than spend time on unsatisfying friendships, and I'm very worried about that. I'd really prefer to avoid that particular pitfall into misery in time, so thank you a lot for posting this. "How to make friends yo... (read more)

4Neel Nanda
Thanks a lot for the kind words! Good luck :)
birdy40

It's so great that you're doing this. I never really thought about how much time, energy and mind-space get lost when students have to priotitize all these pressures like grades, college application and costs of living over actually doing things that are meaningful to them and potentially useful to the world.

Your project sounds like an amazing opportunity for everyone involved, and I'm curious to see how it will develop over time.

birdy20

My appliance was submitted, I mentioned you pointed me to it. Thanks a lot!

birdy100

Thanks for the advice, I appreciate it. I'm one of these people who have very firm rules about not lying though. Then again, I did manage to get a vaccine despite parents objecting using the second option, so I suppose it'll be worth a try :)

3johnlawrenceaspden
That's the spirit!
birdy*10

Thanks a lot! I'll look into applying!

birdy*40

No, until I googled it I never heard of it before. Thank you for pointing it out! I'm quite fascinated, now, I'd appreciate if you could tell me some more about it. 

5Pee Doom
This post explains more, I don't have any other info: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F7RgpHHDpZYBjZGia/high-schoolers-can-apply-to-the-atlas-fellowship-usd50k
birdy90

I find I strongly agree that -- in case of this future happening -- it is extremely important that as little people as possible give up on their attempts to perceive the world as it really is, even if that world might literally 'we failed, humanity is going to die out, the problem is way too hard and there's no reasonable chance we'll make it in time'. It seems to me like especially in scenarios like this, we'd need people to keep trying, and to stay (or become) dignified in order to have any chance at still solving the problem at all.

I'm a total newcomer ... (read more)

8Chris_Leong
Have you considered applying to the AGI Safety Fundamentals Course? (They might not accept minors though b/c of legal reasons, but you'll be an adult soon enough).
4superads91
"what I really don't understand is why 'failure to solve the problem in time' sounds so much like 'we're all going to die, and that's so certain that some otherwise sensible people are tempted to just give in to despair and stop trying at all' " I agree. In this community, most people only talk of x-risk (existential risk). Most people equate failure to align AI to our values to human extinction. I disagree. Classic literature examples of failure can be found, like With Folded Hands, where AI creates an unbreakable dictatorship, not extinction. I think it's for the sake of sanity (things worse than extinction are quite harder to accept), or not to scare the normies, who are already quite scared. But it's also true that unaligned AI could result in a kinda positive outcome, or even neutral. I just personally wouldn't put much probability in there. Why? 2 concepts that you can look up on Lesswrong: orthogonality thesis (high intelligence isn't necessarily correlated to high values), and basic AI drives (advanced AI would naturally develop dangerous instrumental goals like survival and resource acquisition). And also that it's pretty hard to tell computers to do what we mean, which scaled up could turn out very dangerous. (See Eliezer's post "Failed Utopia 4-2", where an unaligned AGI ends up creating a failed utopia which really doesn't sound THAT bad, and I'd say is even much better than the current world when you weight all the good and bad.) Fundamentally, we just shouldn't take the gamble. The stakes are too high. If you wanna have an impact, AI is the way to go. Definitely.
9Pee Doom
Have you looked at the Atlas Fellowship, btw?
birdy30

That's an excellent point, and I have to admit that I'm also a victim to the Germany-is-safe-the-West-will-defend-us-Putin-can't-be-that-insane mindset. It's kind of horrifying that you're right about the defensive state... the more I think about it, the more it becomes obvious how much the public, including me, is still in denial about how important this war is and how dependant Germany would be on the NATO for any defenses at all. 

I genuinely don't understand why the government hasn't already done pretty much everything they can to erase the dependa... (read more)

3Viliam
Well, technically speaking, Germany is safe, at the moment. There are still a few countries between Germany and the Russia-owned places. If Germany keeps its cavalier attitude, USA is still happy to help them (for now; another president may change the policy). Or maybe those countries will succeed to defend themselves; if Finland resisted the Soviet Union successfully in 1940, maybe Poland will do the same in 2030... assuming that Russia will not use the nukes. Even if they fall, they can still buy Germany a few decades; and who knows, maybe a few decades latter Russia will have a different problem, perhaps a war with China, or a revolution, or maybe the artificial intelligence will kill us all. However, Germany seems to change its mind, and will provide some actual help (source).
birdy80

Responding to say that as of now, public opinion in Germany seems pretty certain that Russia is in the wrong.

The reliable news stations mostly agree that Putin's official reasons for invading are weak at best, but also that this is -- as harsh as it sounds -- not a pressing enough issue to seriously consider going to war over. Still, I note several things:

  1. Gas is barely talked about at all on the news. I presume that this is because the government is trying to divert attention from the fact that if Russia restricts it, that'd be a catastrophe.
  2. Some of the le
... (read more)
birdy20

I'm inclined to agree on this. 

The official news here in Germany keep reporting that the government has announced/will announced 'substantial sanctions', but as of now, the proposed SWIFT-exclusion is met with resistance.

The oil and gas prices already skyrocketed over the past months, and the newly finished Nord Stream 2 (under the north sea, was planned to transport gas from Russia to Germany), was announced to be... delayed for "an unforeseeable amount of time". If gas supply over here is restricted any more, it will be an economical disaster, as a ... (read more)

9[anonymous]
Well, what one can "afford" is really a matter of circumstances and will as I'm sure Chamberlain would have argued that Britain couldn't "afford" to offend Hitler by offering help to Czechoslovakia at the time, either. And yet just a couple years later Britain was suddenly able to "afford" to wage an all-out war against Germany while London was still burning. The point here isn't moral grandstanding. The point is there's a need to re-evaluate assumptions about the invincibility of Germany's security status as a NATO member. Nobody expected NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, but if Germans aren't willing to risk as much as higher gas prices and a few pipelines here and there when tanks are literally rolling down the streets of Kiev, what exactly makes them think the US and UK would risk a nuclear war with Russia when tanks are rolling down the streets of Berlin? And it's not like they're willing to increase their own military spending either. The way I see it, right now Germany is mostly defended by thoughts and prayers and a whole lot of "they would never do that". Not a predicament I'd want to be in considering "they would never do that" seems to fail awfully often nowadays. I don't blame Scholz for the stance he's taking though, if anything it's a reflection of German public opinion: too preoccupied with bickering about Covid restrictions and shutting down coal mines. These days it seems like Germans would rather start speaking Russian than turn their nuclear power plants back on. I wonder if we're living through a weird kind of secular cycle. One not defined by Malthusian scarcity, but by an overabundance of safety and luxury. One where people of rich countries become so feeble that not only are they unwilling to fight for freedom, they won't even accept a temporary decline in living standards for it. Until civilization collapses, at which point it makes sense to pick up arms again because their lives and livelihoods by then will be in danger regardless of whether
birdy81

A little bit late, but I also particpated in this year's Vavilov Day, and suceeded!

It was my first ever fast longer than 16 hours, and I had no idea how well (or even if at all) I would manage. I started after dinner on the 25th and ended it with breakfast on the morning of the 27th, to spend less time of the fast awake.

At first, I just avoided food and otherwise went through my day as usual, to check where my limits were in the first place. The day went over quite smoothly, and at around 24 hours, when I knew just regular not-eating for 36 hours wasn't re... (read more)

birdy30

This sounds like a good (and somewhat productive) way to celebrate.

I'll start an attempt to as well, if my parents don't object too much (I'm currently 17 and still live with them).

I've never fasted any longer than 16 hours before, so I'll assume this will be hard... Does anybody have advice on how to make the 36 hours go over a bit easier?

2Vitor
Take electrolytes. This is a mixture of salts your body needs, without them you might get muscle cramps and pain. You can get them at a pharmacy in powdered form. Light exercise is good, heavy exercise is bad. Other than that, try to stay relaxed, but still somewhat busy.
birdy40

Thanks for the offer; if I end up having any questions, I'll take you up on it.

I also looked into the 80,000 Hours community, and although I didn't get very far yet, it seems quite promising. It's definitely a lot to take in, but I think you're right; it would be useful for me now to at least dive into it for a few hours and then decide whether or not to continue.

I appreciate the compliment, as well -- I've been working on developing sufficient writing skills for a while now, and am very happy to hear it pays off.

birdy50

Thanks a lot for kind words!

I looked into the half-assing-thing, and found that it might actually be somewhat helpful for me (in the sense that I'll stop putting so much effort in the subjects that aren't as relevant/rewarding when it's not necessary). This is something I've struggled with for quite a while, so thank you for the resources as well, I appreciate the effort :)

birdy30

You're right - I don't have even half as much of a clue about the whole process as I'd like to have, yet. I very much appreciate that you took the time to explain the basics to me.

Looking for reasonably reliable sources, joining a party, and building a certain reputation there should be extremely high on my list of priorities right now. I'll be looking to check them off as soon as possible.

Thanks a lot!

6Sherrinford
Maybe this overview over some career paths in German politics is helpful: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7FqszSxJ6NHBcZ7nW/report-on-careers-in-politics-and-policy-in-germany 
birdy*430

Hey everyone! I'm Birdy, and currently in my second-to last-year of Germany's equivalent of high school.

I've discovered LessWrong only about two months ago, after I saw someone mention HPMOR in their "top-ten-lifechanger-books ever"-list in a reddit thread. Needless to say, I was really confused and curious, because what crazy kind of fanfiction permanently affects people's lives? So I looked it up online, and started reading. I stumbled upon LessWrong shortly after, while going down the rationality-rabbithole a bit further. And so, here I am, and genuinel... (read more)

7MondSemmel
Welcome from a fellow German here! IIRC I also stumbled on Less Wrong via HPMoR, though back then the story wasn't even finished yet. I must say, I'm impressed with the quality of your English writing at that age! If you're ambitious and driven to choose a career to make the world a better place, check out the resources at 80,000 Hours from the Less-Wrong-adjacent Effective Altruism community. They've done lots of research and thinking into various career paths and their expected impacts, requirements, etc. They're not perfect, in that they e.g. expect a lot from their readers, and below a certain level of ambition and conscientiousness much of their advice might not be particularly applicable. But now might be a good time to check whether their resources could be useful to you. If you think you could benefit from chatting with someone to get a rough overview of the landscapes of Less Wrong or effective altruism, I'm available to chat. I'm mostly a longtime lurker in the community, but I do have enough familiarity with it that I can at least point towards further resources on most topics.

Hello and welcome!

I felt much warmth reading your intro. I remember how magical LessWrong was for me when I first discovered it. (Now, almost a decade in, I have a different feeling towards it, but I remain deeply proud to participate in this community.)

All of which is to say that I feel vicarious excitement for the experiences you have ahead of you. I look forward to meeting you in person one day. : )

(The only troublesome side effect: school has become much less tolerable as a whole. I'm truly trying to get through it with top grades, but now that I see h

... (read more)
6ChristianKl
Politicians still have a lot of power in our society, so it's one way to create change.  Given what you wrote about your background I think there's a good change that you currently don't have a good source about how people become politicians in Germany. German politics differs from US politics in that money isn't central for becoming a job as a politician. What's central is how the people who go to the meetings of the party for which you want to be elected see you.  If you want to become a politician it's good to join one of the parties that has representatives in your state (Bundesland) early and participate in discussions.  There's a lot of tension between moving to the views that the other people in your party have which is partly necessary to be accepted and seen as trustworthy and then contributing your own views. If you have detailed ideas and write them up in a motion and the other people support that motion that's one of the ways to earn an reputation as someone valuable to have around. Depending on the local enviroment it can also be very important with whom you build relationships in addition to your general reputation for being thoughtful. 
6habryka
Welcome! That's very similar to how I arrived here (also discovered HPMOR in german high-school, also ran into LessWrong afterwards and started everything else Eliezer had written), so I hope you end up having a good time. I hope I get to see you around more! :)