True. It is not logically implied from him being right that he had good reason to believe he was right. However, I think it is very strong evidence. Fair warning: I am very new to using Bayes' Theorem, so please make sure to be highly critical of my math, and tell me what, if anything, I'm doing wrong.
First, we must assess the prior probability of Einstein having sufficient evidence, given that he thought he was correct. How often do modern scientists come up with theories that are quickly falsified? Let's be pessimistic and assign 0.001 prior probability ...
When you get down to it, all politics is about conflict resolution. That's not particular to democracy.
Democracy can be viewed as a government in which policy decisions are intended to reflect the will of the people, as opposed to, for example, the will of the nobility, or a single ruler. When people say that a set of decisions should be made democratically, they mean that the conflict resolution mechanism should be such that the decisions made are reflective of the will of the people.
I think the speaker advocating for a democratic, multinational push for ...
Is that true? Does the discovery of a non-mysterious explanation serve as negative evidence of a mysterious one? If by "mysterious" we mean "not strongly predicting any outcomes" then when a theory that is strongly predictive is discovered, the available evidence will shift probability from the mysterious explanation to the predictive one. And I do th... (read more)