All of b_sen's Comments + Replies

[Epistemic status: Unpolished conceptual exploration, possibly of concepts that are extremely obvious and/or have already been discussed.  Abandoning concerns about obviousness, previous discussion, polish, fitting the list-of-principles frame, etc. in favor of saying anything at all.]  [ETA: Written in about half an hour, with some distraction and wording struggles.]

What is the hypothetical ideal of a corrigible AI?  Without worrying about whether it can be implemented in practice or is even tractable to design, just as a theoretical refere... (read more)

I took the survey!

By "fanfic" do you mean: 1) the written content itself, 2) the model of the fictional universe (including characters) generated in the process of writing that content, 3) the model of the fictional universe (including characters) generated in the process of reading that content, or 4) something else?

The written content is unlikely to bootstrap itself on account of not being code, but its effects on the minds that read it are less clear.

In all seriousness, though, if I had a fully mapped out path for bootstrapping well beyond human intelligence I ... (read more)

Adding to my previous prediction comment:

Predictions: (I'll have to score them all after the epilogue is released, but hey, it means we get an epilogue.)

The "phoenix’s egg" password will (directly or indirectly) allow Harry to find Narcissa Malfoy. 70%

The Line of Merlin feeds information to its rightful holder when they’re holding it. 60%

At least one Legilimency conversation occurred during Chapter 119. 90%

Speculations:

What happens if Harry casts the True Patronus through the Elder Wand? Given that it’s a Deathly Hallow that raises the priors of... (read more)

I don't have a link offhand, but I recall EY stating his reasons for not boosting Hermione:

• She doesn't need the boost to compete with the other characters, including Harry
• If she was boosted, the story would be "Hermione Granger Discovers the Methods of Rationality and Becomes Omnipotent" (i.e. a thoroughly power-boosted Hermione would break the story)
• A boosted Hermione would plausibly be smarter then EY

The Author's Note mention of the delayed epilogue (combined with some of the foreshadowing in HPMOR) feels to me like an invitation to write the obvious continuation fic Harry Potter and the Methods of Self-Modification, set between the ending of HPMOR and the epilogue. Does anyone else find this the obvious continuation?

I'm also not sure if writing the fic would actually be a good idea; anyone want to help me evaluate it?

I hope Voldemort's "fallback weapon" also had sunlight-resistant skin. Otherwise Hermione might have issues with going outside...

I also take it that Harry's refusal to give Quirrell's eulogy even before he knew Q = V is because of his views on death in general.

Speaking of the eulogy, is Harry cheering at the end? And does he have any way of protecting his Transfigurations against Finite Incantatem?

Assuming it's her arm, which is plausible given that Harry noticed its thinness but isn't confirmed. In any case, I was mainly just raising the question.

I wonder if Harry can help Draco by teaching him the True Patronus (possibly to have Draco resurrect Lucius). It would be a nice callback to their early scientific discoveries and Harry teaching Draco Patronus 1.0, although Harry might have to be very careful about how he does it.

I also notice that Lesath wasn't among the kids who'd lost parents, so they didn't find Bellatrix among the Death Eaters at the graveyard. Where is Bellatrix?

Adding to my previous prediction comment:

Predictions:

Harry did at least one plot-relevant thing in the time we haven’t seen (between him time-turning back at the graveyard in Chapter 115 and returning to the Quidditch match for Chapter 116). 80%

Harry intentionally made his scar bleed in Chapter 116. 95% (Perhaps using Muggle special effects?)

Someone will see through Harry’s acting (in Chapter 116 at the Quidditch match), whether by deducing things themselves or being told some part of what really happened, by the end of the story. 90%

Draco will figure out ... (read more)

This.

Voldemort's not only being paranoid enough to strip Harry's clothes from him, he's being careful and cautious enough to remove an object Harry Transfigured without letting their magics interact. That kind of attitude is jarringly inconsistent with leaving Harry his wand for no apparent reason.

Luke_A_Somers already suggested adding a reason for Harry to have his wand. I think that adding such a reason combined with changes that increase our estimate of Voldemort's estimate of P(Time will try to thwart Voldemort's attempt to avert the prophecy through... (read more)

(EDIT: formatting)

The Obvious Solution, Continued:

"I offer you hint towardss power over life-eaterss, and alsso propossal for what to do with knowledge. Propossal is ssafe and so iss hint, no malice in either."

The snakish face now looked decidedly interested.

"Hint iss happy thought for guardian Charm. Thought of defeating death for good, in doing sso preventing eventual apocalypsse, desstruction of humanss. Including wizardkind."

He hadn’t wanted to give away any secrets, but the happy thought didn’t give away the nature of Dementors ... (read more)

(EDIT: formatting)

The Obvious Solution: Avert Destruction at Every Possible Point of Intervention

Notice that the solution classes above are not mutually exclusive at the planning stage, and can even be combined with some as backups for others. Naturally, then, part of the lesson is to do exactly that - because Harry needs this to succeed.

To show that I can figure out exactly how to combine them and the details of how Harry should talk his way out of the box, I’m going to write out the combination as a hypothetical Chapter 114. Doing so requires me to pic... (read more)

Solution Class 3: "You Are Not My True Enemy", aka Talking his Way Out of the Box

The Dark Lord's utility function isn't changeable by talking, but that doesn't prevent Harry from convincing him that his current utility function would be better served by leaving Harry alive, or possibly even helping with Harry's plans. I propose a step-by-step method for doing so below.

Step 1: Explain in Parseltongue that while his power over Dementors must be understood for oneself, as a hint towards this power he will share what his happy thought is for the Pat... (read more)

My apologies if I'm repeating anything that's already been said; I've been isolating myself from the online discussion to attempt the Final Exam by myself. So here's what I've got:

I'm pleased with myself for coming up with the first two solution classes I've listed (and vague ideas about the third, which I later separated into its own class) within 60 seconds, but I didn’t come up with the full Obvious Solution in that time. More work to do...

Solution Class 1: Transfiguration

We know that Harry can Transfigure acids nasty enough to instakill when used to r... (read more)

Just thought of another speculation:

If the unicorn’s blood belonging in Hermione (Chapter 111) will keep her alive, does that mean she could sustain a True Patronus indefinitely (with the unicorn’s blood replenishing her life)?

Adding to my previous prediction comment:

Predictions:

The Transfiguration shaping exercise Harry was doing at the Quidditch match (Chapter 104) will become plot-relevant. 75%

Conditional on Harry "tear[ing] apart the very stars in heaven", him doing so will be a good thing rather than the disaster Voldemort thinks it will be. 80%

Speculations:

Lucius is in a tight spot here. He pledged the House of Malfoy against Hermione’s killer... who turns out to be Voldemort, who has now summoned him and is giving him orders. Perhaps Lucius will help Harry out... (read more)

I get the feeling that splitting it up like that was intended to be a test of if we could figure out the flaw in Harry's plan quickly, much like Harry himself needing (and failing) to figure it out fast.

He did tell Fred and George that their contact might have to go outside Britain for some of the items, so...

I see. Point taken, then.

Before that meeting Harry fiddled briefly under his sheets. Maybe he took the Transfigured ring off and put the real one on at that time?

Alternatively, he might have used a different hiding-place for Hermione back then and only Transfigured her into the toe-ring later.

Where's he getting the spirit?

Harry's Patronus appears to have solved that problem, although we don't know how. "Not another Tom Riddle" suggests that it worked.

How does the Stone help?

Hermione's body needs significant repair, and the only way we know of for the repairs in question (once the person is dead) is permanent Transfiguration.

I think it's more plausible that the mirror acts like it does in canon; that is, you see the room you're in, plus some features that you deeply desire; you don't see yourself leave the room unless you actually leave the room.

They did leave the room and go to a graveyard before Hermione was resurrected.

Voldemort would not have given the properties to his body before now, because he had not had the Stone, and without its permanence effect, after a few hours the transferred properties would wear off.

Voldemort also says that the subject sometimes dies when the properties wear off, so he has very good reason not to give them to his body earlier.

True, but then Voldemort performed magical rituals on Hermione. I imagine that ritual magic would also count as magic interacting, although it's possible that it doesn't.

It's also possible that the Patronus is somehow protective from whatever Dark magic Voldemort just attempted (and needed to kill Quirrell for). Good point, in any case.

Some quick predictions before the next chapter, adding to my previous prediction comment:

Conditional on the Mirror being involved in a test meant to distinguish some subset of rationalists (not necessarily a proper subset) from other people, Harry will pass its test by the end of the story. 95% (See my previous prediction comment for why I think this is a sufficiently plausible hypothesis to condition on.)

Conditional on the Mirror being involved in a test meant to distinguish Light Rationalists from other people, Voldemort will not pass its test without s... (read more)

So it looks like some of Harry's magic is on the diary for whatever reason, because Voldemort casting a spell on the diary sets off the resonance hard. Did Harry cast a spell on it earlier?

Grab the Elder Wand, Harry!

...

Is Dumbledore also passing the Line of Merlin to Harry? We don't know what's required to pass the Line between holders.

My previous prediction comment is here.

Also, the subtle hints at reflective consistency are both funny and hints to Harry about the Mirror's nature.

Observe that the writing on the back of the Mirror is in runes, not any particular alphabet. The fact that Harry can read anything out of them at all suggests that there is an effect meant to make them 'readable' regardless of what languages / alphabets the reader knows. This effect was presumably placed by someone who knew what the Mirror does and wanted to make sure that knowledge was preserved even if languages changed and the history of the Mirror was lost.

But then why would someone want to obscure the answer by making those runes the Words of False ... (read more)

I think you're right; on reflection, that's exactly the sort of thing I would expect rational!Peverells to do, plus the stone appears about the right age to be set up by the Peverells. Based on the same reflection, I agree with your predictions and the probabilities you've given them. Quoting for posterity:

Harry is the Master of Death, in the sense of being the primary magical owner of all three Hallows - 75%.

HJPEV counts as Tom Riddle, to the point that on death, the Horcrux network will attempt to update based on him. - 60%.

And I'll just make this my... (read more)

B. Harry himself is absorbed into the network. I'm not sure about all the implications of this. Obviously, he could attempt possessing someone, but this seems mostly against his moral code (unless he thought he could prevent more suffering by doing so.) Or he could potentially mess with the Horcux network internally.

I recall Quirrell saying that his spirit could fly free and choose a consenting person to possess if he so desired. Perhaps Lesath would let Harry borrow his body for a while?

Snape may also have an unknown game plan.

You could have a account for every prediction technique.

That seems like an excessive amount of work, especially once overlapping categories and domains come into play.

Ooooh. That may well be a challenge that behaves differently around people who were or weren't supposed to be there.

Perhaps solving the logic puzzle is sufficient to gain entry, and most students will either not think to flip the parchment over or get bored before they finish brewing the potion it describes. But Snape expects Voldemort to notice the lack of wards and decide to brew the potion, and accordingly has booby-trapped the potion in some manner that triggers upon its completion or after some time sufficient that he expects students to get bored first.

The duration may well also be significant for Time-Turning.

Adding to my previous prediction comment:

Predictions:

Harry attempted to obtain a useful object (such as Snape’s wand) when he knocked Snape over in Chapter 106. 75%

The ritual which promises to summon Death itself (Chapter 74) summons a Dementor. 80%

The lost counterspell to dismiss whatever is summoned by the ritual involving "a rope which has hanged a man and a sword which has slain a woman" (Chapter 74) is the True Patronus Charm. 80%

Harry’s mental development has been significantly influenced by his body’s descent from the Potter line. This in... (read more)

How is PredictionBook for sharing evidence for one's predictions, back-and-forth discussion, logging 'categories' of predictions, detailed statistics (such as calibration changes over time, more granularity than 10% increments, etc.) and so on? Are there any specific features of PredictionBook you would recommend to me?

I ask because:

• I want to participate in readable discussion as well as log my predictions; browsing as a not-logged-in user, PredictionBook appears to have a much less readable presentation for discussions.
• I often have domain-specific pred

True, but that doesn't mean it won't help him eventually, and he may be able to hold out for those five hours.

Or Draco might have ordered Crabbe and Goyle to come find him if he doesn't return, or set other backup plans in motion.

Hmm. Point taken. (Although the point that potion != transfiguration still holds.)

What could Harry use to get out of this pickle?

• His mind, obviously, especially since negotiation is a possible action.
• Wandless magic? (Presumably learned from Bacon's diary.) Probably not anything requiring lots of magical power, but recall from the Azkaban arc that he could dispel his own magic almost effortlessly even back then. Now that he finds second-year spells easy, he just might be able to wandlessly manage that or other spells requiring very little magical power, such as Somnium, Innervate, and the TPC. Or possibly very small transfigurations (

Is there a consensus on when to post new threads (and conversely, when to keep using the old thread for new chapters) that I should be aware of? If so, please let me know.

For comparison, the thread before last is at 172 comments, although that's from late January.

Not necessarily. Dumbledore implies that Lily used a potion, and potions may not need the Philosopher's Stone for their effects to be permanent. (Harry thinks it's the Thestral blood, and guesses that Thestral blood is also responsible for the permanency of his Cloak's magic.)

I have to pass on betting, unfortunately.

Adding to my previous prediction comment:

Predictions:

Harry can resist the Imperius (if it were to be cast on him). 90%

Quirrell enchanted Harry's pouch so that Quirrell can enter and leave on his own in his Animagus form, and there is no mention of those enchantments being removed after leaving Azkaban. This fact will become plot-relevant at some point in the final arc. 75%

Some magical effect was previously preventing / discouraging Harry from figuring out that Quirrell is Voldemort. 65%

Speculations:

The True Patronus appears to have more intelligence than P... (read more)

Point taken. (The quote is from the start of Chapter 89, in case anyone was wondering.)

Registering some predictions and observations before the next chapter comes out:

Predictions:

The snippet at the start of Chapter 1 is from somewhere in the final chapter. 40%

Lily wasn’t making up the "excuses" Petunia mentioned in Chapter 1; she was indeed warned through some form of Divination that the world would end if she made Petunia pretty, and a centaur did actually tell her not to do so. 95%

Magic’s full power allows the user to rewrite reality. 99% (Look at Harry’s reaction to McGonagall’s Animagus transformation: "Magic isn't enough... (read more)

I know, I'm just explaining Quirrell's reasoning in a world where death has not yet been defeated.

I realized why Quirrell gave Hermione a Dreadful grade, rather than just failing her. Recall from canon that there are three failing grades:

[passing grades]

Poor

Dreadful

[redacted for explaining a joke]

But a Poor grade indicates that the student can repeat the course. Death is final, there are no do-overs.

Quirrell could have decided that their overall grades should reflect only their ability to defend themselves, and so chosen to adjust the non-exam grades such that each student's overall grade (with the final included) matches his assessment of that student's defensive ability.

(This is really a more detailed version of your second guess.)

Nthed. I had to scroll using only the mouse.