Something that occured to me while reading this post:
In a given situation, some people who are not at the bleeding edge of finance in general will be well placed to beat the market in a way we would tend to think of as due to skill rather than luck.
In the coinflip example, the people who correctly predict the sequence do so through luck. We call the sequence random because we are unable to model the process which generates it, and we call it luck when they are able to predict it because they don't know how to model it either. In the case of detecting... (read more)
In general if someone used a weird voodoo ritual it would be natural to liken that to a coinflip. If the voodoo ritual starts to be consistently profitable then it can be likened to a deliberate technique. It might not be that markets are especiallly skillfull or wise but they get to define what counts as success so automatically win in that dimension.
Something that occured to me while reading this post:
In a given situation, some people who are not at the bleeding edge of finance in general will be well placed to beat the market in a way we would tend to think of as due to skill rather than luck.
In the coinflip example, the people who correctly predict the sequence do so through luck. We call the sequence random because we are unable to model the process which generates it, and we call it luck when they are able to predict it because they don't know how to model it either. In the case of detecting... (read more)