This isn't quite right as an exposition of Lewis's argument – it elides the distinction between the irrationality of "managing the news" and the way that (according to Lewis) the scenario pre-rewards an irrational choice. Evidential agents don't just "seem" to win – they really do win, because the scenario is set up to arbitrarily pre-reward them for being the kind of agents who one-box. Furthermore, it's claimed that the behaviour which is thereby arbitrarily pre-rewarded is irrational, because it amounts to managing the news.
This isn't quite right as an exposition of Lewis's argument – it elides the distinction between the irrationality of "managing the news" and the way that (according to Lewis) the scenario pre-rewards an irrational choice. Evidential agents don't just "seem" to win – they really do win, because the scenario is set up to arbitrarily pre-reward them for being the kind of agents who one-box. Furthermore, it's claimed that the behaviour which is thereby arbitrarily pre-rewarded is irrational, because it amounts to managing the news.
The sense in which two-... (read more)