brendanhalstead

We want to get this post out quickly given the urgency of the topic. It’s possible that there are some errors in the modeling, but we think it’s very unlikely that they undermine the high level conclusions. We would love to be corrected on any mistakes we made. METR recently...

Tl;dr: Our timelines haven’t changed much (they got slightly shorter) but our modeling and evidence base have noticeably improved, so we feel somewhat more confident. Summary We intend to regularly update our AI timelines forecasts as new evidence comes in and new analyses are done. Today’s “Q2” update was delayed...

Introduction Last week, the Pacing the Frontier open letter, signed by over 1,000 frontier AI employees, requested “the U.S. government support an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools needed to deliberately pace the frontier of automated AI development.” We take “pacing the frontier” to mean moderating the...

For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done! It’s called AI 2040: Plan A. It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what we think should happen, not what...

About 6x slower in the median case, with an 80% CI of 3.5x to 8x. Setup Define the "R&D compute" (in, say, H100-equivalents) of an AGI company at a given time to be the total compute in use across the following categories: 1. Compute used to run experiments, which are...

We’re mostly focused on research and writing for our next big scenario, but we’re also continuing to think about AI timelines and takeoff speeds, monitoring the evidence as it comes in, and adjusting our expectations accordingly. We’re tentatively planning on making quarterly updates to our timelines and takeoff forecasts. Since...