I wonder if one reason SMTM might be advocating improbable theories, and not accepting bets, is because they are intentionally persuing improbable theories. Their post on scurvy seems to make the point that you need to check things even if they seem improbable, as the truth sometimes turns out to be something that seemed improbable.
I (perhaps charitably) assumed they did not believe the lithium theory per se, but thought it was worth a more detailed look - having previously argued that the bar for that should be lower than others think.
I thought the lithium theory and the potato diet were just two of many possible things they might be looking into, with the idea being that they advocate a broader search generally.
It's very clear to me that it's fine (and often great!) to investigate implausible theories. It just seems to me that the SMTM authors are doing a very bad job at actually pursuing the truth, as demonstrated by the facts that, e.g.
they wrote a "literature review" that only includes studies that are outliers, refused to address the fact that they are outliers, and are actively trying to prevent their readers from knowing that (by refusing to approve my comment on their post despite having had the time to approve several comments that were made afterward)
I agree. Their 'candidate explanations' felt unsatisfying when I got to them, because they spend so much time building up what a good explanation would necessarily feel like. Maybe that was the goal, but if it was, they didn't make it explicit.
I wonder if one reason SMTM might be advocating improbable theories, and not accepting bets, is because they are intentionally persuing improbable theories. Their post on scurvy seems to make the point that you need to check things even if they seem improbable, as the truth sometimes turns out to be something that seemed improbable.
I (perhaps charitably) assumed they did not believe the lithium theory per se, but thought it was worth a more detailed look - having previously argued that the bar for that should be lower than others think.
I thought the lithium theory and the potato diet were just two of many possible things they might be looking into, with the idea being that they advocate a broader search generally.
It's very clear to me that it's fine (and often great!) to investigate implausible theories. It just seems to me that the SMTM authors are doing a very bad job at actually pursuing the truth, as demonstrated by the facts that, e.g.
- they wrote a "literature review" that only includes studies that are outliers, refused to address the fact that they are outliers, and are actively trying to prevent their readers from knowing that (by refusing to approve my comment on their post despite having had the time to approve several comments that were made afterward)
- the
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