All of Blake's Comments + Replies

Answer by Blake
30

FWIW, here is the best survey of ideas on sample size I found: https://cadcommunity.pbworks.com/f/what%20sample%20size.pdf

Blake
1-1
  • I believe that because over 200 people RSVPed for the event, unlike anything else we’ve done. This even eclipses our AI event.

  • We’re going to focus on action and reasons for backing Harris vs “rah rah” hype making.

  • The open conversation is how to get a candidate elected.

  • Most people back a candidate like they back a sports team. They don’t have reasons. We’ll work toward reasons.

Blake
32

I hope you can get political with EU rats.

Blake
10

The idea is that we don’t need to say “Harris is great” because everyone already thinks that if they’re coming. We are only focusing on motivating metrically-defined outcome oriented actions. It’s a game. “Who can get the most votes for Harris?” Different teams will focus on different actions. Post card writing. Fundraising. Voter registration. We’ll optimize and learn.

Blake
10

My life is rooted in a desire to optimize. That’s what I get out of rationalism. Optimization strategies. Politics is new for me. I’m curious to see how the rationalist lens that I’ve used to optimize most aspects of my life (who I married, the job I’ve chosen, ..) can be applied in the political sphere. This is my naive attempt. I will optimize.

Blake
10

Why isn’t it? Our people form tribes over shared intellectual interests like others form tribes over shared affinity for a sports team.

Blake
10

Ah, yes. I meant I am not publicly tying a Rat brand to our event. There is no mention of rationality on the DNC event page.

Blake
10

Most people who attend our meetings just want to find folks who share their interests. That is the tribalistic impulse I'm referencing.

1Czynski
That's not what tribalism means.
Blake
-3-4

Agreed. I don’t think I’m tying our event with the LW or Rat brand. I am simply saying more rats need to support a candidate.

This is a local event in which I will push my anti-tribalism agenda. My bet is many who attend are not interested in being tribalistic. Myself and those I know who are behind Kamala are largely behind her because we appreciate evidence-based thinking, which Donald Trump has worked against.

3Caric
The first paragraph of the post is an explicit tie between the "Rat brand" and your event. You did not say that you were hosting an unaffiliated event, and you think Rats should join in - you said "My rationalist group is hosting the event". By doing it under the aegis of your rationalist group, you are creating the tie.
Blake
20

Are you saying we shouldn’t even attempt to turn tribalistic thinkers into evidence based thinkers? My own experience at that has been rather successful.

Our New Orleans Rat group grows on tribalistic calls to action. “Donate to Global Health Initiatives,” “Do Art,” “Learn About AI.” At the events we tend to question the foundation of having those interests, working to better stances on the interests we keep or reject.

Example: We led a multipart series on EA for people who were already interested in EA. The series was led by someone who was very much an EA.... (read more)

1Czynski
If you consider those tribalistic calls to action, I'm not sure any of you are doing evidence-based thinking in the first place. I suppose if the damage is already done, it will not make anything worse if your specific group engages in politics.
Blake
9-14

I am sad this idea is getting so many down votes. More smart people need to engage with politics and you cannot engage in any better way than by backing a candidate.

3niplav
I live in Europe.
6Zero Contradictions
Why do you believe that? How does it do that? Especially if it involves backing a mainstream candidate? I don't need to back a candidate to change political rhetoric. A more effective way to change political rhetoric is figure out ways to change the current culture. I doubt it. I don't think you're interested in having an open-minded conversation. I suspect that you're only interested in supporting Kamala Harris. You haven't explained why you support Harris, and you obviously need to do that if you want to start a conversation. How does backing a candidate "bring more people out of tribalism"? You haven't given any explanation for this.
4Czynski
There is basically no method of engaging with politics worse than backing a national candidate. It has tiny impact even if successful, is the most aggressively tribalism-infected, and is incredibly hard to say anything novel. If you must get involved in politics, it should be local, issue-based, and unaffiliated with LW or rationalism. It is far more effective to lobby on issues than for candidates, it is far more effective to support local candidates than national, and there is minimal upside and enormous downside to having any of your political efforts tied with the 'brand' of rationalism or LW.
Blake
-31

Your issue seems to be with tribalism, not politics.

Blake
10

Those are all great questions. I’m going to start by asking the case worker those questions. I imagine they will buy items like diabetes medication, baby formula, and diapers. There my intervention frees up cash for the family to buy other items. Maybe I’ll direct the case worker to ask what they bought with the extra cash they have? I imagine the quality of life increase will come in the items they chose to buy with cash they didn’t have to spend on the necessities I bought.

Blake
10

I have never met the family and don’t plan on meeting them in person. A case worker will be in contact with them. I aim to maintain that distance, merely asking the case worker for data to plug into my spread sheet. The problem is that I do not know what data I should be plugging in.

If at all possible, I think it should really be recommended for you to meet them in person. Helps reduce problem due to Not Measuring What You Think You Are Measuring.