All of Bob_Unwin5's Comments + Replies

Even if you do want to integrate contrary evidence, it can be hard to do so quickly enough to continue a normal conversation, especially if the evidence is quite unexpected.

For example, suppose I have come to believe that in war X, the victory of the Reds against the Greens was always likely to happen. That is, from the first skirmish between the two sides, one could (with only the information about the two sides available at that point in time) confidently bet on the Reds winning. And the Reds did actually win.

If I know nothing of heuristics and biases, a... (read more)