All of bramflakes's Comments + Replies

It would have been wiser for the English governing class to have called upon some other god. All other gods, however weak and warring, at least boast of being constant. But science boasts of being in a flux for ever; boasts of being unstable as water.

GK Chesterton, Heretics

(for "god" read "moral principles")

3fubarobfusco
A related idea is psychologizing — analyzing someone's belief as a psychological phenomenon rather than as a factual claim.
2[anonymous]
Excellent, thanks.

because that trivially leads to intelligence explosion

0[anonymous]
To what? And why? Why would intelligence even be a quantity thing? Just because we measure it with IQ tests, it does not mean it is a fungible commodity, the same way how giving a car 1 or 5 stars of safety on a crash test does not simply mean the some cars have more layers of pillows bolted on on that others: it is just a measure of the efficacy of entirely different technologies and processes used. Increasing intelligence probably means learning entirely new kinds and ways of reasoning and approaches to problems. Why would external things influence intelligence esp. in a magical, fictional universe? Just make it a property of the immortal soul and whatnot and not related to brains and whatnot. EDIT I googled the term intelligence explosion now and found this: http://intelligenceexplosion.com/en/2011/preface/ "Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; " IMHO this is bogus because it sums up intelligence as one fungible commodity used for different things, like desining machines. But intelligence is simply a measure of various talents and skills. Machine-design skill is part of it, but neither does a machine-designing machine necessarily have intelligence in other fields, nor does a person who is an intelligent lawyer know anything about designing machines, nor would he be necessarily very good at learning it. Perhaps, if we understand intelligence as not knowledge but ability to learn. Which is highly suspicious because it assumes there is no innate, inborn, genetic, or unconscious/circumstantial knowledge used for designing machines or for learning anything else, to the extent that our ability to learn may be quite simply constrained by other kinds of knowledge and not a general information-sponging skill (to intelligently learn is not

The science material is presented to the reader in good faith, by the protagonist, who is only ever shown to be wrong in his attempts to link the science to magic, not the science itself. If it's attempting to be faithful to the Harry's youthful hubris, then shouldn't there be parts when Hermione says "actually Harry, you've misunderstood Kahneman and Tversky on X, Y and Z ...", like what happens for magical topics?

There is a section on the site called "science" which reads

All science mentioned in Methods is standard science except wh

... (read more)
2TobyBartels
The ironic thing about those exceptions is that bringing in Barbour's timeless physics is arguably itself one of the errors. In Harry's explanation of how he was able to perform partial transfiguration, there's nothing from Barbour except the phrase ‘timeless physics’; Harry's explication of that, as enforcing a relationship between separate time slices rather than performing a change, is the standard idea of a block universe, going back at least to 1908.

That being said, is HPMoR really meant as a didactic work?

We are talking about the fanfic where characters routinely block-quote from cogsci textbooks, aren't we?

0dxu
Yes, which could just as easily be an attempt to be faithful to the characters. We know Harry has read quite a bit of cog-sci, and that he likely hasn't quite internalized it to the degree where he can explain the concepts without the use of the terms themselves, and thus resorts to quoting more-or-less verbatim from the material that he's read. That's not to say the novel is intended to teach cog-sci, and in fact there are gaping holes in the cog-sci presented within HPMoR--holes that are not in the Sequences.

Oh, I didn't mean to imply I didn't like it! It was a welcome companion for hundreds of long school bus journeys.

I'm getting problems too. The contents pages look like this, for example.

One of the most common complaints about the old Sequences was that there was no canonical default order, especially for people who didn't want to read the entire blog archive chronologically.

I was tricked into doing this. Years ago someone posted an ebook claiming to be the Sequences, but was actually just every single Yudkowsky blog post from 2006 to 2010 -_-

It took until noticing that only Yudkowsky's side of the FOOM debate was in there that I realized what had happened

7Vulture
Just as a little bit of a counterpoint, I loved the 2006-2010 ebook and was never particularly bothered by the length. I read the whole thing at least twice through, I think, and have occasionally used it to look up posts and so on. The format just worked really well for me. This may be because I am an unusually fast reader, or because I was young and had nothing else to do. But it certainly isn't totally useless :P
9Paul Crowley
It wasn't meant as a trick! Organising them would have been very hard.

If Harry needed his wand to demonstrate something (which he very plausibly might have), it would have made no sense to take it away.

So have him drop it and a Death Eater confiscate it, and if he says he needs it to demonstrate something, Voldemort can ask "do you plan to usse it to attack me, sservantss, or to esscape?" before returning it to him. Then as soon as he's done, confiscate it again. That's an extra 10 seconds; which is a small price to pay to hedge against a Black Swan.

Voldemort doesn't know about Partial Transfiguration, but he do... (read more)

4dxu
There's an easy way out of that one: Harry should precommit to not begin thinking of any possible plans of escape using his wand until after getting it back.
-2[anonymous]
Because you hadn't decided shortly before that Harry was an idiot.

He wouldn't have had enough information to conclude that Harry had invented a new type of Transfiguration - he would probably think it was a particularly powerful cutting hex for a first year, or something. Still stupid of him not to have made inquiries after two times witnessing its effects (cutting through the wall of Azkaban, felling the trees).

BrindIf100

Especially knowing that Harry almost offered to explain it to him (after Azkaban). Quirrel's answer :

it is too rare that I find a person whom I cannot see through immediately, be they friend or foe. I shall unravel the puzzles about you for myself, in due time.

Where was it stated that the Potter family's noble status is a result of baby-Harry killing Voldemort?

9Atelos
Chapter 86
3Rob Bensinger
You can find the FOOM debate eBook here: https://intelligence.org/ai-foom-debate/
0Ben Pace
No. There's already an ebook for that btw, and can be found on the seqences less wrong page.

needs a "none" option

3[anonymous]
Needs a "this poll is inadequate option". Where's the "I design financial systems used by more than a million people to secure billions in value, but despise economic blogs of all sorts and have no formal training from academic sources"?
1ilzolende
Yes, I concur. I've yet to have taken my required HS Econ class, and while I read the occasional post here and on Overcoming Bias about economics, that probably doesn't count.

I remembered I have a PredictionBook account that I registered some years ago and forgot about, so I might as well get started with this whole "calibration" business.

The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no “brute force” transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction): 95%

The true solution involves time travel: 50%

The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration: 80% (this isn't in contradiction with #1 - it can involve Partial Transfiguration (e.g. as a threat, or a demonst... (read more)

EY has previously stated that HJPEV is only knows some of the content of the Sequences, because if he knew all of it he'd be too powerful to write an interesting story around. EY has also stated that Harry is now allowed to come into his full power as a rationalist, presumably meaning he can deduce anything remaining in the Sequences.

So, what things are in the Sequences that Harry hasn't yet invoked? The answer may lie there.

8buybuydandavis
I'm really hoping it doesn't come down to some MWI.
8solipsist
I was going to correct you But then I remembered -- no handguns in Britain! That was a clue I missed right there!

Re-reading the story, this made me smirk in light of recent revelations:

Harry scowled at her. "Fine, I won't bite anyone who doesn't bite me first."

4jmmcd
Harry should trick Voldemort into biting him, and then use his new freedom to bite him back.

(Plausible) Harry can stall for time by explaining his discovery of Mendelian magical inheritance, and the implication that magic is not a property of Wizards but rather bestowed upon them, possibly by the Atlantean Matrix lords. This is a power, or at least knowledge, the Dark Lord knows not, and it gives him time to do his Partial Transfiguration attack, while also not giving Voldemort any kind of immediate strategic advantage.

(Implausible) This would then segue into a discussion of whether Voldemort is just seeing his CEV, and simulated-Harry trying to break it. Somehow, they end up breaking the Mirror's illusion, thus destroying this "world".

Nitpick - antimatter will also produce a pure light pulse, just the wavelengths are much shorter than the visible spectrum.

3Izeinwinter
.. sigh the point is survival. A radiation pulse will hurt Harry the most, and will not be immediately obvious to people not fried by it. The idea is to disable opposition and summon help. In the event no help instantly materializes, dodge and start the incantation for fiendfire - it doesn't actually matter if you can't cast it. Everyone present will recognize it, and to a blinded wizard, fleeing should be utterly reflexive at that point.

After 5 minutes of thinking about it, the only thing I could come up with concerns:

"HE IS HERE. THE ONE WHO WILL TEAR APART THE VERY STARS IN HEAVEN. HE IS HERE. HE IS THE END OF THE WORLD."

Bellatrix and Sirius are stars, and also Death Eaters. Voldemort has already torn apart Bellatrix to use the Dark Mark, and Harry can tear apart Sirius with the Partial Transfiguration trick people are talking about. How do we know Sirius is present? Because there is a Death Eater named "Mr Grim" who is stated to have known the Potters.

Hang on, ... (read more)

1TobyBartels
Is Sirius a Death Eater in this fic? In canon, he was thought to be one, but he never was.

I think the literal physical stars are referred to. The centaur also thought the stars would go out:

"So the wandless have become wiser than the wizards. What a joke! Tell me, son of Lily, do the Muggles in their wisdom say that soon the skies will be empty?"

"Empty?" Harry said. "Er... no?"

"The other centaurs in this forest have stayed from your presence, for we are sworn not to set ourselves against the heavens' course. Because, in becoming entangled in your fate, we might become less innocent in what is to come. I alo

... (read more)
2Edgehopper
I like this, and you can resolve "HE IS THE END OF THE WORLD" by combining the rule that prophecies are meant to be heard by those they affect and to cause their consequences, and that to Voldemort, his death is the end of his world. So HE IS THE END OF THE WORLD is true for Voldemort, because Harry's killing power can be the end of Voldemort's world.
3redlizard
I don't think this is likely, if only because of the unsatisfyingness. However: Some foreshadowing on the idea of ominous-sounding prophecy terms actually referring to people's names. "blood spills out in litres" meshes well with "TEAR APART".
8LeifBrown
"End" can also mean "goal". This is somewhat interesting in light of EY's work at MIRI.
3[anonymous]
And then, since he's already figured it out when guessing about the Comed-Tea, Harry will make himself believe that the stars are the people, and so the prophecy means not him, but Voldemort, which is why if he does not stop Voldemort right now, he will fail to fulfill the Vow, which is impossible. So the Vow will work in his favor, possibly boosting his abilitiesto misdirect in Parseltongue. Also, Voldemort is aalready the end of the world, and has been since possessing the Pioneer Plague (which can be reached by phoenix at any moment). Also, Voldemort put on broomstick enchantments on his bones, and Harry already knows a way in which they are fallible: CRAP. NEWTON...

He could also transfigure a few micrometres of wood from the end of the wand itself.

He looks like that in canon, for which I think the underlying meaning was from the idiom "cutting off ones' nose to spite ones' face". Not sure if it applies to HPMOR.

If the mirror universe was antimatter, Harry would be annihilated instantly because his feet are touching the floor, even if the Cloak could shield everything else.

0Gondolinian
Couldn't he crawl?

Wait a minute, aren't all human CEVs supposed to converge to roughly the same thing? (tell me if I've catastrophically misunderstood or misremembered the concept, it's been a while since I read the sequences)

2Luke_A_Somers
Two peoples' individual CEV are expected to be widely divergent. However, if one applies CEV to large numbers of people in aggregate, there are expected to be some things which survive the reconciliation process - things they can all get behind, or would if they were smarter. Each of these is probably really obvious like 'death and brain damage really suck' or really meta like a good system for resolving conflicts between conflicting sets of individual values, possibly including ways of arranging matters so that the conflicts do not arise in the first place.
6Alejandro1
In all details, certainly not; Dumbledore's CEV might well include reuniting with his family, which won't be a part of others' CEV. In broad things like ethics and politics, it is hoped that different people's CEVs aren't too far apart (thanks to human values originating in our distant evolutionary history, which is shared by all present-day humans) but there is no proof, and many would dispute it. At least that is my understanding.
1lerjj
Thanks, upvoted for quick response. The quote is this: This doesn't sound like AD is stuck in the mirror, but I think this rules out QQ being in it. Both would seem to be counter to the story, as it can't end just yet.

I show not your face but your coherent extrapolated volition

I got shivers when I read that and realized what the Mirror was. Another thing that ought to have been obvious, in hindsight.

wwa160

And the entire HPMOR fanbase has just now googled the concept. Promotion of ideas is what HPMOR's purpose is, after all.

1Gondolinian
Why do the runes correspond to arbitrary clusters of characters, and not words or concepts? [edited]
1lerjj
Is my vocabulary at fault here? I'm parsing that as "I'm not actually reflecting you [already known], but instead I'm reflecting what I think you want me to" This sounds like a description of the Mirror from canon. What have we learned that's new?

Harry would be very bad at wandless magic the first time trying, so he might not even be able to do anything macroscopic. He might be able to conjure up the tiny amount of antimatter required though.

0lerjj
There's a chance that he's been practising. In fact, I can't see Harry doing any wandless magic at all, but if he has the only reasonable explanation would be that he has secretly been practising. This is not unreasonable. We know he's upset by the fact that you require wands from the early chapters and transfiguration is what MoR!Harry is known for. The issue with practise is that assuming it's very difficult, he might not be able to detect a positive result if it either (a) takes too long to happen or (b) can only transfigure a small amount. This is one of my favourite ideas I've seen so far, however.

I haven't re-read the fic in a while so this might be a stupid question, but does QQ know about Partial Transfiguration? I can't recall him being present/conscious at any point Harry uses it. That would be a power the Dark Lord knows not, right?

If Harry judged that whatever Quirrel was planning was X-risk level dangerous, he could try wandlessly Transfiguring a few micrograms of antimatter, destroying both of them (along with a large chunk of Scotland) in the process.

3garabik
Harry used partial transfiguration to make a hole in a wall in Azkaban, ch. 57. Quirrel saw the hole, but how much did he deduce from that is hard to say.
0lerjj
I don't think Quirell does know about partial transfiguration, no. However, wandless magic is supposed to be very difficult and Harry notes that his dark side is defective when it comes to having unbelievably powerful magic. Also, I don't think Harry can transfigure air, so he'd have to use the walls/floor for this. Not much of a constraint though. Edit: or simply do the same but with the gun. If he can do this fast enough, he might not have to use the anti-matter trick anyway- just partially transfigure the middle of the pistol into sulphuric acid.

Because the sovereign and independent Eastern European nations wanted to become part of NATO, and NATO tanks didn't need to force itself on a single nation, it was invited( a single country, nor change the borders, unlike Russia's military occupation of portions of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine.

I'm not sure your average Serb would agree ...

Because when Greece has been recently openly allying itself with Russia, I don't see NATO troops from Italy or Albania or Bulgaria attempting to break apart portions of Greece.

No, they just get the Troika to do it ... (read more)

3Lumifer
An average Serb or an average Yugoslav..? :-P I don't think the desire to maintain a little Balkan empire counts here. I don't think so. Do tell, what Russia is defending against? And is the threat to Russia or to Mr.Putin's thoroughly corrupt state? Show me that coalition and show me how is it "anti-Russian". I am sorry, this passed into the realm of unadulterated bullshit. So, right now, in the XXI century Russia is "concerned for its survival"? A country of "few natural defenses" that was last conquered by Genghis Khan?
8Viliam_Bur
One of the reasons to join NATO was that Russia (Soviet Union) had a history of reverting political changes in Eastern Europe; see Prague Spring. Given this history, a political change from communism to democracy seemed half-assed without also joining NATO, because it seemed like a question of time until someone in Russia decides "okay guys, your political regime will now change to this" and send tanks to enforce the decision. It felt like without NATO, the future of Eastern Europe would be decided in two steps. 1) Russia will decide what political regime it wants, which may take a few years, but when the decision is made, then 2) the tanks will come and enforce the same regime in other countries. So, unless you agree that this is how the political regime in your country should be decided, the only safe alternative is to join NATO.
5Richard_Kennaway
Everyone's actions are perfectly understandable as defensive and reactive in nature. Perfectly, universally, and therefore uselessly.

I'm not sure your average Serb would agree .

I opposed NATO's action in Kosovo as an imperialist action in support of Albanian imperialism -- but this has nothing to do with NATO's expansion eastwards any more than its intervention against Afghanistan does. NATO's expansion eastwards was an action of the Eastern European countries fleeing westwards, being rightfully afraid of Russian imperialism.

Italy or Albania or Bulgaria attempting to break apart portions of Greece.

No, they just get the Troika to do it by proxy

Know what? I can't remain civil in... (read more)

And NATO pushing up to the borders of Russia isn't considered an aggressive move on the part of the USA, because ... ?

I'm not trying to defend his annexation of the Crimea but "trying to rebuild the Soviet Empire" isn't what I think his motivations are when I can look at a map like this, and recall the Georgian conflict was itself sparked in part by aspirations of that country to join NATO. Americans would feel threatened if say, Mexico joined the Warsaw Pact, no?

And NATO pushing up to the borders of Russia isn't considered an aggressive move on the part of the USA, because ... ?

Because it wasn't NATO that "pushed up to the borders of Russia" it was the Eastern European countries that fled from Russia into NATO. Not a single NATO tank had to streamroll into those Eastern European countries for them to join . You'll note that none of those nations that joined NATO needed to be invaded and military occupied by NATO -- unlike what Russia is doing now, and unlike what Warsaw Pact did in the past.

Because if... (read more)

5James_Miller
Part of the reason Putin wants a bigger empire is undoubtedly to gain some protection against future aggression. I totally agree with you that the U.S. has acted to weaken Russia.
4Dallas
I don't really feel the need to write that when I am aware of it from personal experience.
3[anonymous]
Kudos for the relevant response rather than what's going on below.

My guess is that open offices make the company seem more cool/laid-back and less stodgy than cubicle farms. This might help to attract employees, even though it actually makes them less happy in the long-run.

This is it, basically. You see it a lot in companies based on churning through employees rather than building up a stable longterm workforce. The open-plan spaces look hip and make newcomers feel like they're working in a Cool Modern Company, so they're more willing to endure the daily annoyances like half a dozen distracting conversations going on ... (read more)

I could never work in an open-plan office. The entire idea is a nakedly aggressive intrusion into employees' personal space on the part of management.

But I have no good explanation for the overfunding of HIV which is a completely preventable disease on the personal level by using a condom and refraining from using IV drugs.

one would think so but certain demographics can't seem to handle this

We see a dramatic drop in terrorist acts in the US after 2000.

Do we? I see a sawtooth-decline starting in 1995/6, with 2000/1 not deviating from the trend.

4NancyLebovitz
It's hard to say, but I'm seeing a decline in both the peaks and valleys a little after 2000, with a big drop around 2003.

I feel it, but it's a weak emotion. I could easily imagine going without it.

3Raoul589
Do you find any slapstick or dark comedy funny? I'm curious.
[anonymous]100

Actually, upon reading that article you've linked, I've found it to be cogent and well-written but emotionally toxic, tenuous in its connection to facts, and philosophically/existentially filled to the brim with lost purposes. To give examples, the obsession with preserving "European civilization" and the admiration for the internet's cult of ultra-masculinity (which should really be called pseudo-masculinity since it so exaggerates the present day's Masculinity Tropes that it dramatically misses other modes of masculinity, despite their actual ... (read more)

8[anonymous]
Fine, but Dungeons and Dragons is also a constructed, deliberate mythology, and you wouldn't respond to a quote about "You haven't met gods" by saying, "Actually, I role-played encountering Boccob the Uncaring, God of Magic, just last Tuesday." Well actually, I would respond that way, but as a joke. I would not expect to be taken seriously.

I think this is about the only scenario on LW that someone can be justifiably downvoted for that statement.

5wedrifid
I up-voted it for dissenting against sloppy thinking disguised as being deep or clever. Twisting the word 'god' to include other things that do fit the original, literal or intended meaning of the term results in useless equivocation.
[anonymous]100

I don't see why. Non-agents simply don't fit the definition of "god", so equivocating on the definition of "god" from "world-changingly powerful agent" to "abstract personification of causality itself" does not really shed any light on anything.

I'm not as opposed to political discussion on this site as many are, but I do think the original point of EY's "Politics is the Mindkiller" post is worth keeping in mind. Inserting this kind of mind-killing aside in an otherwise non-political comment is needlessly inflammatory and distracting. I don't want to see this sort of thing on LW.

Having seen many of his recent posts I believe he's doing it on purpose.

We don't know whether the Great Filter is ahead of us or behind us. The more evidence we find that life is common throughout the universe, the more the probability mass moves towards "ahead of us", because more "behind us" possibilities have been eliminated.

We've known for some time that Titan has plenty of organic molecules.

The Sequences don't purport to be average.

I tried that before, I'd just turn it off and get back into bed.

0closeness
As soon as I close my eyes to sleep I silently say to myself "I will wake up early in the morning" 100 times. If I do this I will wake up before my alarm without fail, if not I will hit snooze as many times as I can get away with it.
4[anonymous]
I would too, so I replaced my alarm with a cron job on my computer to play music at a certain time -- usually an Insane Clown Posse song (specifically Vultures, which starts loudly and distinctively enough to work well structurally as an alarm), to make sure I wouldn't stay in bed and listen.
5MrMind
It also happened to me. I used to wake up at 7:15, snoozing up until 7:30, which was very bad for my morning routine. Putting the alarm clock on the other side of the room helped, but when I tried to set the waking time at 7:00, I would just get up, snooze and go back to bed. Now I'm trying to set it to 7:10 and it seems to work well. There probably is a subconscious set point which needs to be adjusted gradually. You also need stuff to do when you wake up: if you wake up just for the sake of it, your subconscious will know and put you back to sleep.
7JoshuaZ
Hmm, here's another solution which a friend of mine tried which seems to require careful timing- set multiple alarms and have each alarm set to go off a few seconds after the other, having them lead you all the way around the room.

I have a terrible problem where I wake up from my alarm, turn off the alarm, then go back to sleep (I've missed several morning lectures this way). The solution I've been trialing is to put a glass of water and some caffeine pills on my bedside table when I go to sleep. That way, when I wake up I can turn off the alarm, take the pill and give in to the urge to put my head back on the pillow, confident that the caffeine will wake me up again a few minutes later. This has worked every time I've remembered to put out the pills.

I got this idea from someone else on LW but I've forgotten who, so credit to whomever it was.

0cameroncowan
I am not a morning person and never have been. What I will do is if I really have to get up I will set three alarms: 1 on my iPad that is next to me in bed. Then I will place my iPhone across the room and set two alarms on it. Not only do I get residual alarms but I also get the getting out of bed effect. My Dad has a similar system and it has served him well since his military days.
6AlexSchell
The hack is due to Anders Sandberg, with modafinil tablets though [ETA: this last part is false, see Kaj's reply]. Works wonderfully (whether with modafinil or caffeine).
7Alsadius
I set two alarms, about 1-2 minutes apart. The first one is soft and beside my bed, the second is loud and on the other side of the room. I get a couple minutes to achieve consciousness in a civilized fashion, and then the second alarm actually gets me out of bed. I've previously tried just having the second, but I got very good very fast at turning it off without really gaining consciousness.
5Gurkenglas
I've cultivated a habit of following to the letter any deliberate precommitments I make to myself, because it seemed like a useful sort of habit, and I haven't failed yet. I might even choose to make that part of my identity in time... With that already in place for a few months, over the last few weeks I've noticed that I have woken (and stayed) up in time iff I went to sleep in time (about half the time) or used the precommitment of, freely translated, "When I next wake up, if I notice that my ringing mobile phone has the piece of duct tape stuck to it that I put there to trigger the memory of this precommitment, and remember this precommitment, I will not touch my mattress after turning it off for the following 10 minutes." (about half of the remaining times) You see, my morning self doesn't actually want to sleep in, it just apparently hasn't internalized induction on enough of a gut level to draw the connection between going back to bed and falling back asleep. What it does understand, is the connection between touching that mattress and tarnishing that record. Edit: It now occurs to me that it might be a nonobvious warning that you carefully start with lesser precommitments, lest you ruin this forever for yourself by having an akrasia'd self not care enough about the habit. Your reach exceeds your grasp by default on this one. Edit: Shit, I actually just went back to bed after those 10 minutes. Gonna have to modify that...
JoshuaZ100

My preferred solution for this problem is to have the alarm on the other side of the room so I have to actively get out of bed and walk over to it.

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