The post originally had several positive karma then got downvoted. The need for "epistemic legibility" is noted.
you haven't spoken with XX who have trouble finding a desireable partner
Haven't spoken with? Who said I'm not in this category lol
More plausible model for why in present day so many are overweight:
--cheap calories that taste good widely available with very low effort to obtain
--tasty food is, other things equal, an easy exploit to reward / motivation loops, so it tends to get used in exactly this way which results in excess calorie consumption and of course this is habit forming. there is probably also a lower threshold to "get into" food vs something else in this class like drugs since eating is already universal and not taboo or otherwise particularly regulated.
--fewer obliga...
First bullet, those are good points. It is an interesting question how one would good data on this sort of thing and how accurate that data would be.
Second, this isn't the intention, it's to show that the story sounds bizarre. It's not a political comment.
What am I supposed to do now? Chargeback?
If you want your money back, sure. The alternative is to fight a company experienced at not giving refunds.
As for warning the community, this kind of thing happens all over the place all the time in all kinds of industries. Complaints to BBB and Yelp tend to be famously ineffective although possibly will demonstrate good citizenship to those who don't know better. Overall, this post is a bit confusing--it's like someone from a completely different society was suddenly transported to modern USA. What are you asking / telling us?
This is fundamentally misframed. For example, there's no reason not to support--in some cases--mandatory abortion if you support mandatory vaccination. The main benefits of abortion aren't to the user, they're to the potential conscious entity who mercifully wasn't forced to endure a predictably sub-par life and to society. Abortion isn't really about personal (bodily) autonomy, that's just a useful political expedient.
edit: is this being downvoted because people think it's anti-abortion? To put this comment in more context, it's assumed that a...
once the cat is out of the bag it's out
Since this was not clear, that's correct. The intention is not to encourage non-contribution to the open internet, including open source projects.
It is a problem in 2022 when someone seriously proposes opt-out as a solution to anything. Our world does not "do" opt-out. Our concept of "opting out" of the big-data world is some inconsequential cookie selection with a "yes" and a buried "no" to make the user feel good. We are far past the point of starting conversations. It's not productive, or useful, when it's predicta...
Productive for what, exactly? There's a lot of assumed context missing from the post, including your gender, and the gender you're targeting. It's also not completely clear what kind of relationship you want, but we'll assume it's serious and long-term.
First: you're XY, looking for XX. In this case, @swarriner's post is applicable to most of the distribution. But since you're here, we'll assume the girl you're looking for is intellectually gifted, data oriented, and may or may not be slightly on the spectrum. Even in this case, pictures are still worth 100...
Disagree. Data public (and private) will be used by all kinds of actors under various jurisdictions to train AI models and only a fraction of these predictably will pay any heed to an opt-out (and only a fraction of those who do may actually implement it correctly). So an opt-out is not only a relatively worthless token gesture, the premise of any useful upside appears to be based on the assumption that one can control what happens to information one has publicly shared on the internet. It's well evidenced that this doesn't work very well.
Here's another approach: if you're worried about what will happen to your data, then maybe do something more effective, like not put it out in public.
If your response to that idea is ‘what, what, that sounds horrible and terrifying and we should absolutely positively not do that’ then you seem like a normal human to me.
Or maybe it's dull, boring and dumb like most other things in school. How you perceive the threat of mass shootings, or anything else, is not one-size-fits-all. School tends to be a ways down on the list of one's influences at any age and if one's dearer influences consider shootings to be a very unlikely cause of problems to one's health, as is objectively the case, one might simply thin...
Destructive alignment issues in our species are more mundane. Several leaders in the 20th century killed outright very large numbers of people for completely banal reasons like political ambition. Actually, your intuition that 9/11 events happen "all the time" is only off in a temporal sense; the number of humans unambiguously killed by the coordinated actions of relatively few other unaligned humans in the last 100 years is so great that it is probably enough to have at least one 9/11 a day during that time. Humans are generally unaligned on several level...
and have the best forecasters
With forecasters from both sides given equal amounts of information, these institutions might not even reliably beat the Metaculus community. If one is such a great forecaster then they can forecast that jobs like this might not be, among other things, that fulfilling.
I don't know if we've gotten to the point where they can fool the professionals at not getting fooled
Quite a few professionals (not at not getting fooled) still believe in a roughly 0% probability of a certain bio-related accident a couple three years ago thanks i...
Well, there's a significant probability COVID isn't a "natural" pandemic, although the story behind that is too complicated without an unambiguous single point of failure which hinders uptake among would-be activists.
If there's an AI failure will things be any different? There may be numerous framings of what went wrong or what might be addressed to fix it, details sufficient to give real predictive power will probably be complicate and it's a good bet that however interested "the powers that be" are in GOF, they're probably much MUCH more interested in AI...
Anyone can try, this seems way out in a practically invisible part of the tail of obstacles to not being destroyed by AGI, if it's even an obstacle at all.
Most probably just haven't identified it as salient / don't understand it / don't take it seriously, and besides there tend to be severely negative social / audience ramifications associated with doomsday forecasting.
One way to maybe shed some light on this is to sort the latest Top500 results by location (maybe with extra work to get the specific locations inside the country, if required). There is a very long tail but most of it should correlate with investment in top infrastructure. Of course certain countries (US, China) might have undeclared computing assets of significant power (including various private datacenters), but this probably doesn't change the big picture much.
A stupid AI that can generate from thin air things that have both useful predictive power and can't be thought of by humans, AND that can reliably employ the fruits of these ideas without humans being suspicious or having a defense...isn't that stupid. This AI is now a genius.
What might an irate e-chimp do if their human handler denied it a banana?
Who cares? For one, if we're talking about an AI and not a chimp em this is an obvious engineering failure to create something with all the flaws of an evolved entity with motivational pressures extraneous and harmful to users. Or in other words this is a (very) light alignment problem that can be foreseen and fixed.
How much real power does the AI have access to, and what can humans do about it?
To reframe your question, even relatively small differences in human intelligence appear to be associated with extraordinary performance differences in war: consider the Rhodesian Bush War, or the Arab-Israeli conflict. Both sides of each conflict are relatively well-supplied and ideologically motivated to fight. In both cases there is also a serious intellectual giftedness gap (among other things) between the competing populations and the more intelligent side is shown to win ...
So, to be clear, you don't think confidently naming people by first name as destroying the world can be parsed emotionally by them?
Mentions of AI companies / AI personalities on LW will intrinsically tend to be adversarial, even if the author spares a polemic or use of terms like "so and so is working to destroy the world" because misaligned AI destroying the world is clearly THE focus of this community. So it can be argued that to be meaningful, a policy of no names would need to be applied to practically any discussion of AI as even if some AI content is...
This seems like a case of making a rule to fix a problem that doesn't exist.
Are people harassing individual AI labs or researchers? The tendency for reasonable people who are worried about AI safety should be to not do so, since it predictably won't help the cause and can hurt. So far there does not seem to be any such problem of harassment discernible from background noise.
Naming individual labs and / or researchers is interesting, useful, and keeps things "real."
A conventional approach might lead one to consider that inside the LW / AI safety bubble it borders on taboo to discount the existential threat posed by unaligned AI, but this is almost an inversion of the outside world, even if limited to to 25/75 of what LW users might consider "really impressive people."
This is one gateway to one collection of problems associated with spreading awareness of AI alignment, but let's go in a different direction: somewhere more personal.
Fundamentally, it seems a mistake to frame alignment as an AI issue. While unaligned AGI...
"human-level AI" is a confusing term for at least a couple reasons: first, there is a gigantic performance range even if you consider only the top 1% of humanity and second it's not clear that human-level general learning systems won't be intrinsically superhuman because of things like scalable substrate and extraordinarily high bandwidth access (compared to eyes, ears, and mouths) to lossless information. That these apparent issues are not more frequently enumerated in the context of early AGI is confusing.
As far as I'm aware all serious attempts to...
There seems to be a deep problem underlying these claims: even if humans have loosely aligned intuition about what's right and wrong, which isn't at all clear, why would we trust something just because it feels obvious? We make mistakes on this basis all the time and there are plenty of contradictory notions of what is obviously correct--religion, anyone?
Further, if grandma is in such a poor state that simply nudging her would kill her AND the perpetrator is such a divergent individual that they would then use the recovered funds to improve others' lives (...
Writing about politics isn't discouraged because of sensitivity, but because political positions tend to be adopted for bad epistemological reasons, have poor predictive power and little to do with rationality. Correspondingly, framing a topic politically is a good indicator that the author has resorted to poor argumentation and is very unlikely to update their views based on superior argument or evidence, which is a little annoying and not less wrong. These are general problems not limited to discussing politics but for politics it's especially bad.
I'm far more skeptical of the "governments have this covered" position than I was in 2015. Some of this is for theoretical reasons (ex: preventing catastrophe benefits people beyond your country) and some of it is from observing governments more (ex: pandemic response).
This is an interesting response to the perceived folly of trusting that our authorities can handle a cosmic body appearing on track to collide with the planet as there would seem to be more fundamental issues at play: that many such bodies may be unidentified, including due to long period or...
Random person most likely has an IQ of 100 which is a standard deviation or two below a random president. Random person most likely has less talent and experience at politics, promotion and attack than a politician. Random person is most likely less physically attractive, less charismatic, and less wealthy than a politician. Random person doesn't have a gigantic support apparatus behind them (although even if they do they're probably still screwed because it's not enough to make up for the rest of the deficiencies). As others say it won't even be close. Random person will predictably be slaughtered.
What is the question? It seems to have something to do with AGI intervening in personality disorders, but why? AGI aside, considering the modification of humans to remove functionality that's undesirable to oneself it's not at all clear where one would stop. Some would consider human existence (and propagation) to be undesirable functionality that the user is poorly equipped to recognize or confront. Meddling in personality disorders doesn't seem relevant at this stage.
A few reflections on a tragically wrong comment:
Probability is high that all nations with strong AI research are keeping secrets, since some AI research will naturally go into projects with high secrecy. A better question is what the proportion of published to secret research is in USA, China, etc. It might actually be similar, which could suggest that China is pretty far behind.
You can't account for AGI because nobody has any idea at all what a post-AGI world will look like, except maybe that it could be destroyed to make paperclips. So if starting a business is a real calling, go for it. Or not. Don't expect the business to survive AGI even if thrives pre-arrival. Don't underestimate that your world may change so much that scenarios like you (or an agent somewhat associated with the entity formerly known as you, or even anyone else at all) running a business might not make sense--the concept of business is a reflection of how ou...
Which category does this story fit into?
losing all the friends it has left with the possible exception of Iran
To be pedantic, they also wouldn't very likely wouldn't lose Syria or North Korea.
In any moment, you have literally millions of options.
Has anyone actually made an attempt to calculate possible degrees of freedom for a human being at any instant? There are >millions of websites that could be brought up in those tabs alone.
If you're into information then learning to code can help you acquire more information more easily and process that information in beautiful ways that could be laborious or impractical otherwise. That's probably the simplest explanation with the broadest appeal. At the risk of downvotes (maybe there are a lot of professional coders here), I'm not sure why anyone would want a job coding because then you risk the fun aspect for someone else's purposes in exchange for some tokens and quite a lot of your time.
Taking for granted that AGI will kill everybody, and taking for granted that this is bad, it's confusing why we would want to mount costly, yet quite weak, and (poorly) symbolic measures to merely (possibly) slow down research.
Israel's efforts against Iran are a state effort and are not accountable to the law. What is proposed is a ragtag amateur effort against a state orders of magnitude more powerful than Iran. And make no mistake, AGI research is a national interest. It's hard to overstate the width of the chasm.
Even gaining a few hours is pretty ...
It's hard to overstate the width of the chasm.
I think you're overstating the width of the chasm. Where are you getting the impression that congress or the state department is so committed to AGI in a non-symbolic way? Most of the research towards AGI capabilities is done at the moment by private actors, staffed almost entirely by the kind of systematizing nerd most often concerned by existential risk. What exactly is the grand difficulty you expect scaling up the kind of outreach I outlined in the post to a slightly more hostile environment?
How are we to know that we aren't making similar errors today?
Based only on priors, the probability we aren't is very low indeed. A better question is, given an identified issue, how can change happen? One main problem is that contra-orthodox information on moral issues tends not to travel easily.
This isn't really much different from life outside the club. Social forces are often not aligned with majority personal preference and can even be in conflict. For example, people want to make friends or hook up but seeking those goals explicitly tends to be perceived as low-class and / or strange.
I think there is a social equivalent of "(not) hiring the top 1%".
(In the linked article, the author questions what really happens when you invite 100 people for an interview and only hire the best 1. Naively, it seems like you are hiring the top 1%. But actually, some kinds of people are overrepresented at job interviews, namely those who can't get a job, and those are exactly the ones you want to avoid. And okay, most likely the 1 best out of 100 is not like this, but because the sample is skewed, they are neither the top 1%. Maybe top 10%, or top 50%, o...
I'm not sure considering how to restrict interaction with super-AI is an effective way to address its potential risks, even if some restrictions might work (and it is not at all clear that such restrictions are possible). Humans tend not to leave capability on the table where there's competitive advantage to be had so it's predictable that even in a world that starts with AIs in secure boxes there will be a race toward less security to extract more value.
If the US knew of a way to locate subs, then it would worry that Russia or China would figure it out, too
There are many conceivable ways to track subs and this is only part of the problem because subs still need to be destroyed after being located. Russia and China combined don't have enough nuclear attack subs to credibly do this to the US. The US does have enough nuclear attack subs to credibly destroy Russia's deterrent fleet, if they can be tracked, with attack subs left over to defend our own ballistic missile subs. A primary mission for nuclear attac...
at what point would you expect the average (non-rationalist) AI researcher to accept that they’ve created an AGI?
Easy answers first: the average AI researcher will accept it when others do.
at what point would you be convinced that human-level AGI has been achieved?
When the preponderance of evidence is heavily weighted in this direction. In one simple class of scenario this would involve unprecedented progress in areas limited by things like human attention, memory, io bandwidth, etc. Some of these would likely not escape public attention. But there are a lot of directions AGI can go.
To the extent that there are believers, you won't change their mind with reason, because their beliefs are governed, guarded and moderated by more basic aspects of the brain--the limbic system is a convenient placeholder for this.
So a problem you are focused on is that minority (or majority) of individual opinions are prevented from being honestly expressed. Flipping a small number of individual opinions, as is your motivation, does not address this problem.
Because the benefits of quantum computing were so massive
Please elaborate. I'm aware of Grover's algorithm, Shore's algorithm, and quantum communication, and it's not clear that any of these pose a significant threat to even current means of military information security / penetration.
I'm interested if there were any attempts at formal rules of transforming media feed into world model. Preferably with Bayesian interference and cool math. So I can try to discuss these with my friends and maybe even update my own model.
So you are interested in changing other people's minds on a complicated issue that has more to do with the limbic system than rational hardware by using reason. This distribution of influence is one reason why their intelligence isn't really important here, and it is also why your strategy won't work.
More generally, you are in a trap. Be skeptical of your own motivations. The least worst course of action available is probably to disengage.
Realistically, a complexity limit on practical work may not be imposed if the AI is considered reliable enough and creating proofs too complex to otherwise verify is useful, and it's very difficult to see a complexity limit imposed for theoretical exploration that may end up in practical use.
Still in your scenario the same end can be met with a volume problem where the ratio of new AI-generated proofs with important uses is greater than external capability of humans to verify, even in the case that individual AI proofs are in principle verifiable by humans...
AI becomes trusted and eventually makes proofs that can't otherwise be verified, makes one or more bad proofs that aren't caught, results used for something important, important thing breaks unexpectedly.
I do not feel entirely comfortable talking the whole thing over with my profs.
If you're going to take a 3 month internship they will all know about anyway, it can't hurt to talk about it, right? Cryonics isn't really that taboo, especially if, as it appears, you will take the position that you don't expect current methods to work (but you would like to see about creating ones that might).
You know, one can find a desirable partner after having had trouble finding one. Just finding a parter is not very hard as XX. Please think more carefully about what has (and hasn't) been said before strawmanning.