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All of Charles Dalton's Comments + Replies

On Overconfidence
Charles Dalton10
  1. What is your probability that there is a god? (Svir creprag)

20%

  1. What is your probability that psychic powers exist? (Bar va bar gubhfnaq)

25%

  1. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050? (Avargl creprag)

75%

  1. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? (Svsgrra creprag)

50%

  1. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? (Rvtugl creprag)

30%

  1. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almos
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