All of Christian Z R's Comments + Replies
Wow, I think got more luckier than I deserved to.
This was really interesting, I could see that there must be something complicated going on, but I never got close to guessing the actual system. Encounters alerting other encounters is both simple and feels intuitively right once you see it.
After stealing most of my ideas from abstractapplic (thanks) I spent most time trying to figure out which order to put the C-W-B-H. I found that having the toughest encounters later worked best, which must be an effect that is actually caused by the random players putting...
1Some more insights:
I assume that Adventurers can't walk diagonally. In that case we can try to look at dungeons where the same encounter is present in room 2 and 4 (or in room 6 and 8), so the adventurers must pass through that exact challeng. I then make a linear model on this encounter + include room 1 and 9 in order to control for the fact that dungeons with strong encounters in one room is more likely to also have them in others.
Looking at both the case where Enc2==Enc4 and the case where Enc6==Enc8 I got an agreement between the difficulties of the en
A few notes about strange phenomenons in the scores:
1) As already pointed out there is a clear jump in scores by around one point around tournament 3400 (the jump is too small for me to be quite certain when it happened). This might be because of a small change in the rules. So conclusions drawn by data from before this point might be flawed.
2) The scores are either whole numbers, or fractions ending in halfs, thirds or quarters. So they might be from taking the mean of either 1, 2, 3 or 4 whole numbers. It is inherently tricky to find ou
Yup, that sounds about right. In Denmark, which have a proportional representative parliament, there recently was a party that tried to combine (kinda-) libertarianism, including support for a UBI with anti-immigration policies. It fell apart after a few years, since that quadrant of the political phase space did not have enough voters for even a small party.
Also, there are parties who goes for the middle of the road. They just cater to the segment of the population who like to see themselves as moderates.
Just putting a guess in here, before I go check if it is true:
Actually the 'Houses' have no effect, they are just the names of the different groups. In order to get a good rating, the members of each house should be as close as possible in Stat-space, or perhaps all be high in one stat (still experimenting with this). Since the early students were all placed by a functioning hat, each house had a well defining place in Stat space that it would carry on with. But since all current students have been randomly selected, we don't have to worry about this
A thanks a lot. I was actually working through the earlier scenarios, I just missed that I new one had popped up. Subscribed now, then I will hopefully notice the next one.
Also, my approach didn't work this time, I ended up trying with a way too complicated model. I really like how the actual answer to this one worked.
Ah, late to the party, didn't see this one coming up. Pity.
Anyway, before I check my result I will just try to preregister a few insights and see if they are carried out.
There might probably be some effects in the dataset that are only relevant at lower levels, and so exist mainly as a red herring, since all our fights are between people of at least level 5. I therefore doublechecked everything looking at only the subset of data with all fighters in high level.
The classes seem to work in a such of Rock/Scissor/Paper way, some being much stronge
I really do think this term would be very useful if it could be brought into common usage. Here is two examples I met from just the last 12 hours:
Yesterday I was eating tabletop raclette (kind of like mixed grill) with my family, and my wife tried to tell my son that he shouldn't try to just fry a lot of mushrooms together, that wouldn't be delicious. He got so sad because his shifgrethor was violated while he was having fun trying to cook real food for the first time.
A few hours ago, my wife told me about an article about proffesional test takers in China...
Short and very interesting scenario! The fact that the most useful subset of the data was so small (929 people like us getting truly random skills) made me rater afraid that I was fooling myself with random fluctuations. With some very dirty probability I reasoned that the p value for our results for Anomalous Agility + Temporal Distortion was a bit less than 1%, so I went for it.
'I simply believe that assigning truth values to moral sentences such as "killing is wrong" is pointless, and they are better parsed as prescriptive sentences such as "don't kill" or "boo on killing". '
Going to bring in a point I stole from David Friedmann: If I see that an apple is red, and almost everybody else agree that the apple is red, and the only person who disagrees also tend to disagree with most people about all colors and so is probably color blind, then it makes sense to say that it is true that the apple is red.
-Jesus, Muhamm...
I think you accidentally pointed the link about geeks, mops, and sociopaths to this article. I googled the term instead.
It does a really good work of explaining what happened in most religions in late antiquity, for evidence about Christianity actually being a better subculture than paganism back then you just have to look at how envious the last pagan emperor, Julian the Apostate, was of their spontaneous altruism.
Thanks for the great work. Found out that a simple Random Forest model combined with avoiding everything Crumbly bagged me 20 snarks with a 72.5% survival chance. So expected number of snarks would be 14.5. Looking at it afterwards this seems like actually the worst and most suicidal way to attack the problem. But, hey, at least I got made Boatmaster.
My guesses after some pretty dirty analysis:
By looking at the data, squinting at some sumcurves, fitting some very speculative lines and sacrificing a pidgeon to the diviners I guess that of the 2300 ships that were lost were caused by:
1000 were due to Crab people (whose damage distribution doesn't look like any of the others', so I am guessing 50% of their attacks do more than 100%)
700 were due to Demon Whales (Looks like at least 2/3 of their attacks do more than 100% damage)
300 were due to merpeople (their damage might have 10% above 100)
200 were
Thanks for a good one, where I finally could use a bunch of linear regressions. Steamrolling! (I was sure there would be some devious trap, but I guess sometimes the basics actually do work, which is how they became the basics)
One thing that perhaps would make it easier was if the web interactive could tell whether or not your selection was the optimal one directly, and possibly how higher your expected price was than the optimal price (I first plugged mine in, then had to double check with your table out here)
Anyway, greetings, and looking forward to seeing the next one. Will train on the older ones until then
Okay, I might be late, but to test myself I will post my solution here before checking the right answer:
First I find the subset of recipes that produce a Barkskin potion. By examining this I find that they all need Crushed Onyx and Ground Bone. I make a subset of recipes with only the ingredients at hand AND using both Crushed Onyx and Ground Bone.
We now have two very manageable dataframes, 42 succesful and 152 unsuccessful recipes based on C.O and G.B. Looking at them I quickly realize that all the recipes have some chance of failure. Make a simple script
Sometimes changing such spaghetti towers can become a beautiful art all in itself. Like a combination of Jenga, Mikado and those mind boggling topology riddles.
Take for example the rules of D&D. They started simple, then new rules was added in the most spaghetti like way imaginable (Okay, you can play a wizard. But then you are not allowed to wear any armor! You can still wear a backpack because otherwise it is inconvenient. And no Backstabbing with a longsword!) The problem is that for every arbitrary spaghetti rule, somebody will have build a beloved...
This sounds really interesting! Generally it seems that most people either believe AI will get power by directly being ordered to organize the entire world, or it will be some kind of paper-clip factory robot going rogue and hacking other computers. I am starting to think it will more likely be: Companies switch to AI middle managers to save $$$, then things just happen from there.
Now one way this could go really mazy is like this: All AI-models, even unique ones custom made for a particular company are based on some earlier model. Let's say Wallmart buys ...
Going off on a tangent here about the 'religion of peace.'
When discussing migration to Europe the relative crime rates of muslim immigrants often pop up, so once I decided to sit down and look them over. In Denmark, which keep pretty meticulous statistics, migrants from muslim countries have a roughly 2.5x higher violent crime rate than the mean. This might sound like a lot but then I started comparing it with other countries:
If we just look at homicides (the crime statistic that most people care about and which is hardest to fake), Denmark has a very low ...
I did the same during my last year of high school and first year in university! I even got a second hand trouser press so I could make sure the creases were sharp.
However, I stopped it in the end. I think most observers thought I was either some sort of neoreactionary or just a plain weirdo. Almost nobody asked me why I was wearing it (this was Scandinavia, so pretty normal to not ask other people why they are doing weird things. We are a bunch of quiet, private people). At some point I realized I was using mental energy by the entire thing, being le... (read more)