All of Chrysophylax's Comments + Replies

You seem to have made two logical errors here. First, "This belief is extreme" does not imply "This belief is true", but neither does it imply "This belief is false". You shouldn't divide beliefs into "extreme" and "non-extreme" buckets and treat them differently. 

Second, you seem to be using "extreme" to mean both "involving very high confidence" and "seen as radical", the latter of which you might mean to be "in favour of a proposition I assign a very low prior probability". 

Restating my first objection, "This belief has prior odds of 1:1024" i... (read more)

3Davidmanheim
Extreme, in this context, was implying far from the consensus expectation. That implies both "seen as radical" and "involving very high [consensus] confidence [against the belief]."  Contra your first paragraph, I think, I claim that this "extremeness" is valid Bayesian evidence for it being false, in the sense that you identify in your third paragraph - it has low prior odds. Given that, I agree that it would be incorrect to double-count the evidence of being extreme. But my claim was that, holding "extremeness" constant, the newness of a claim was independent reason to consider it as otherwise more worthy of examination, (rather than as more likely,) since VoI was higher / the consensus against it is less informative. And that's why it doesn't create a loop in the way you suggested.  So I wasn't clear in my explanation, and thanks for trying to clarify what I meant. I hope this explains better / refined my thinking to a point where it doesn't have the problem you identified - but if I'm still not understanding your criticism, feel free to try again.

Look at what warfare was like in China or Japan before major Western influences (not that is was much better after Western influences).

Vastly inferior to, say, warfare as practiced by 14th-century England, I'm sure. I also point you towards the Rape of Nanking.

Compare that with any group besides "The West". They would do much worse things and not even bother angsting about it.

You are comparing modern westerners with historical Buddhists. Try considering contemporary Buddhists (the group it is blindingly obvious I was referring to, given ... (read more)

0Eugine_Nier
I meant the modern west. However, Which was committed by people who were (at least theoretically) Buddhists. We were? In the comment of mine that started this discussion I wasn't just referring to contemporary groups. However, let's restrict to contemporary states. I take it you count the historically Buddhist countries that are currently under communist regimes as "not really Buddhist" since communism is officially atheist. That leaves, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, and Sri Lanka. Japan was rather nasty until being beaten by the West, and there are signs it'll become nasty again given the chance to the extent it doesn't that's clearly due to western influences. South Korea and Taiwan are too weak to do much externally, but are admittedly nice places to live, also highly westernized. Dido for Singapore, although it has very strict laws (I approve of them but suspect you might not). Cambodia is somewhat of a mess even if you discount the Khmer Rouge as not Buddhist. Thailand is ok although not powerful enough to do much externally, also rather westernized. Burma is in the running for most oppressive government on the planet. Sri Lanka is dealing with its Tamil minority in a somewhat nasty manner.

Read the linked post. The main reasons we can't define words however we like are because that leads to not cutting reality at the joints and because humans are bad at avoiding hidden inferences. Not being a biologist, I can't assign an ideal definition to "duck", but I do know that calling lobsters ducks is clearly unhelpful to reasoning. For a more realistic example, note the way Reactionaries (Michael Anissimov, Mencius Moldbug and such) use "demotist" to associate things that are clearly not similar.

Firstly, that explanation has a very low probability of being true. Even if we assume that important systematic differences in IQ existed for the relevant period, we are making a very strong claim when we say that slavery is a direct result of lower IQ. As you yourself point out, Arabs also historically enslaved Europeans; one might also observe that the Vikings did an awful lot of enslaving. Should we therefore conclude that the Nordic peoples are more intelligent than the Slavs and Anglo-Saxons?

Secondly, your objection now reduces to "other people ... (read more)

0Eugine_Nier
I meant the views on black people. True, we better evidence that modern "prejudice" against blacks is due to the "prejudices" largely being accurate. Namely the fact that the prejudices are in fact accurate, in the sense that (whether because of nature or nurture) blacks are in fact less intelligent and more prone to criminality than whites. They are an indirect consequence of the slave trade in the sense that the slave trade resulted in large numbers of blacks in the United States (and also possibly contributed to the difference in intelligence).

I've read it. Views about black people in the Islamic Golden Age were not the cause of views about black people in the nations participating in the transatlantic slave trade; a quick check of Wikipedia confirms that slavery as a formal institution had to redevelop in the English colonies, as chattel slavery had virtually disappeared after the Norman Conquest and villeinage was largely gone by the beginning of the 17th century. One might as well argue that the ethic of recipricocity in modern Europe owes its origin to Confucian ren.

1Eugine_Nier
I never said they were. It's possible that both views had a common cause, e.g., blacks actually being less intelligent.

If we define all deliberate infliction of pain as torture then we lose the use of a useful concept. You are not cutting reality at the joint.

0ChristianKl
I'm not. I'm defining using physical pain as a means of punishment as torture. That's even fairly conservative. Plenty of people also consider activities such as female circumcision for religious purposes torture.

But the big jump was in karma, not karma-for-the-month. My karma-for-the-month went down by two and my karma went down by 25. I'm now on {20, 5}, which is inconsistent with the {12, -2} and {16, 2} from earlier today.

0Richard_Kennaway
Karma-for-the-month is karma on your last month's postings, not the last month's votes on all your postings. If your total plummets while KftM hardly changes, it means a bunch of old posts got downvoted.

Thank you. I'm still confused, though, because I started out at 0 karma for the month, making the changes in the numbers non-equal. I'm now on {16, 2}, which is consistent with {12,-2}, though.

4gjm
Remember that the change in karma-for-the-month is the sum of two things: changes now and changes a month ago. So it can jump down even when nothing interesting just happened, if you got a bunch of upvotes 30 days ago.

Counterexample: most Buddhists.

Your enemies (and, you know, the rest of humanity) are not innately evil: there are very few people who will willingly torture people. There are quite a lot of people who will torture horrible mockeries of humanity / the Enemy, and an awful lot of people who will torture people because someone in authority told them to, but very few people who feel comfortable with torturing things they consider people. The Chinese governement does some pretty vile things; I nevertheless doubt that every Party bureaucrat would be happy to be involved in them.

-1Eugine_Nier
Look at what warfare was like in China or Japan before major Western influences (not that is was much better after Western influences).
-4ChristianKl
Quite a few adults in the West still advocate corporal punishment to educate their own children.

Are there any countries that allow gay marriage that don't have a longish history of Christianity?

No. There are 17 countries that allow it and 2 that allow it in some jurisdictions. A list may be found here: http://www.pewforum.org/2013/12/19/gay-marriage-around-the-world-2013/

There have been plenty of cultures where homosexuality was accepted; classical Greece and Rome, for example. Cultures where marriage is predominantly a governmental matter rather than a religious one are all, as far as I am aware, heavily influenced by the cultures of western Euro... (read more)

6V_V
And, as Vaniver pointed out, feudal Japan and imperial China as well. However, none of these societies allowed gay marriage, as far as I know. Note that in all pre-modern, and in particular pre-industrial, societies, economic and military strength were constrained by population size. Also, social organization was centred around clans/extended families. Therefore, marrying and making lots of children was considered a duty of every man and woman towards both their clan and their country. There seem to be some exceptions to the rule: the Catholic Church attempted to bar its priests from marrying, with little success until the 11th century, possibly to avoid priests spread in a multitude of countries, over which the Church had little control, to form dynastic lines. Priests still provided valuable services to their communities, hence the loss of fertility caused by the marriage ban was tolerated. I suppose that similar arguments can be made for Buddhist priests, but I'm not as knowledgeable of Asian history.
-3Eugine_Nier
My understanding of non-Christian cultures is that this claim is dubious. Of course the notion of a separation of religion and state is itself a modern western notion, so it's hard to say what this means for most cultures.
1Eugine_Nier
Read Arabian Nights, blacks are portrayed pretty negatively there as well.
3Vaniver
I get the impression that both China and Japan (I'm less familiar with Korea) are accepting of homosexual desire and activity, and assumed that bisexuality (of some sort) was normal, and almost all opposition to it stems from Christian influences in the 1800s. I think that none of them have gay marriage, or any sort of serious movement towards gay marriage, because of a conception of marriage as family-creating, rather than bond-creating, and under such a view obviously sterile marriages are a bad idea. (Why not just marry a woman and have a male lover?)

Yet another karma query: yesterday my karma was 37. Today my karma is 12 and I am at -2 karma for the last 30 days. What's going on here?

1gjm
Most likely: Someone has taken exception to something you wrote and decided to go back and downvote a load of your old comments. It's a thing that happens. Victims complain about it from time to time. Eliezer says he's asked someone to look at the LW database for evidence of mass-downvoting but they haven't found anything useful; make of that what you will. There are some grounds for thinking that people who make comments supporting (in rough terms) feminist views, and more generally but also more weakly "non-Reactionary" views, are particularly likely to attract the attention of mass-downvoters. (One might respond to this by avoiding such comments, or by defiantly making more of them.) Less likely but not impossible: Someone has disliked something you wrote, gone back through your comment history, independently assessed the quality of each comment, and happens to have found ~25 comments that they think deserved downvoting on their own (de)merits. [EDITED to add: Hello, downvoters! If you think something is bad about the above, please do let me know what. Otherwise, my working hypothesis is that the downvotes on this comment come from mass-downvoters who don't like being talked about. and I'll adopt my usual heuristic of responding to what look like mass-downvotes by posting more.]

I agree with the statements of fact but not with the inference drawn from them. While Jiro's argument is poorly expressed, I think it is reasonable to say that opposition to homosexuality would not have been the default stance of the cultures of or derived from Europe if not for Christianity being the dominant religion in previous years. While the Communists rejected religion, they did not fully update on this rejection, but rather continued in many of the beliefs that religion had caused to be part of their culture.

I am not sure that "the atheists a... (read more)

...I think it is reasonable to say that opposition to homosexuality would not have been the default stance of the cultures of or derived from Europe if not for Christianity being the dominant religion in previous years. While the Communists rejected religion, they did not fully update on this rejection, but rather continued in many of the beliefs that religion had caused to be part of their culture.

Blaming lingering Christian memes for the illegality of gay marriage doesn't seem right to me, because almost all countries that currently allow it are predo... (read more)

An argument is valid if, given true premises, it always and exclusively produces true conclusions. A valid argument in this context might therefore be "given that we wish to maximise social welfare (A) and that allowing gay marriage increases social welfare (B), we should allow gay marriage (C)". A and B really do imply C. Some people contend that the argument is not sound (that is, that its conclusion is false) because at least one of its premises is not true (reflecting reality); I am not aware of anyone who contends that it is invalid.

Jiro is... (read more)

2Eugine_Nier
Ok, now what's the evidence that this is in fact the case?
2Lumifer
We're discussing social and cultural memes, not formal logic. Do note that "I oppose gay marriage because it goes against God's law" is a valid argument.

Upvoted.

To clarify: VNM-utility is a decision utility, while utilitarianism-utility is an experiential utility. The former describes how a rational agent behaves (a rational agent always maximises VNM-utility) and is therefore ordinal, as it doesn't matter what values we assign to different outcomes as long as the preference order does not change. The latter describes what values should be ascribed to different experiences and is therefore cardinal, as changing the numbers matters even when decisions don't change.

Really? By whose definition of "bad laws"? There are an awful lot of laws that I don't like (for exaple, ones mandating death for homosexual sex) but that doesn't mean I'd like to screw up the governance of an entire country by not allowing any bills whatsoever to pass until a reform bill passed. That's a pretty good way to get a civil war. Look, for example, at Thailand, which is close to separating into two states because the parties are so opposed. Add two years of legislative gridlock and they'd hate each other even more; I am reasonably confident that gridlock in Thailand would lead to mass civil unrest and a potential secession of the northeast, which might well be violent.

-3Eugine_Nier
I disagree with the premise that countries need a constant supply of new laws to function. The problem in Thailand is not gridlock itself, it's that different factions have very different ideas about what the laws should be.

Yes, due to those being standard terms in economics. Overinvestment occurs when investment is poorly allocated due to overly-cheap credit and is a key concept of the Austrian school. Underconsumption is the key concept of Keynesian economics and the economic views of every non-idiot since Keynes; even Friedman openly declared that "we are all Keynesians now". Keynesian thought, which centres on the possibility of prolonged deficient demand (like what caused the recession), wasn't wrong, it was incomplete; the reason fine-tuning by demand manageme... (read more)

Robert Nozick:

Utilitarian theory is embarrassed by the possibility of utility monsters who get enormously greater sums of utility from any sacrifice of others than these others lose . . . the theory seems to require that we all be sacrificed in the monster's maw, in order to increase total utility.

My point is that humans mostly act as though they are utility monsters with respect to non-humans (and possibly humans they don't identify with); they act as though the utility of non-sapient animal is vastly smaller than the utility of a human and so making... (read more)

0Gunnar_Zarncke
That way it looks. And this is probably part of being human. I'd like to rephrase your answer as follows to drive home that ethics is most driven by empathy:

Because a child who doesn't find pain unpleasant is really, really handicapped, even in the modern world. The people who founded A Gift of Pain had a daughter with pain asymbolia who is now mostly blind, amongst other disabilities, through self-inflicted damage. I'm not sure whether leprosy sufferers have the no-pain or no-suffering version of pain insensitivity (I think the former) but apparently it's the reason they suffer such damage.

This book seems to be a useful source for people considering the question of whether pain could be improved.

Newcombe-style problems, including the Prisoner's Dilemma, and the difference between rationality-as-winning and rationality-as-rituals-of-cognition.

Eliezer once tried to auction a day of his time but I can't find it on ebay by Googling.

On an unrelated note, the top Google result for "eliezer yudkowsky " (note the space) is "eliezer yudkowsky okcupid". "eliezer yudkowsky harry potter" is ninth, while HPMOR, LessWrong, CFAR and MIRI don't make the top ten.

3kalium
I suspect more of the price comes from his reputation than his intelligence.
-3Shmi
Actually, his fb profile comes up first in instant search:
2drethelin
I believe eliezer started the bidding at something like 4000 dollars

Nail polish base coat over the cuticle might work. Personally I just try not to pick at them. I imagine you can buy base coat at the nearest pharmaceuticals store, but asking a beautician for advice is probably a good idea; presumably there is some way that people who paint their nails prevent hangnails from spoiling the effect.

0dougclow
I'd be cautious about using nail polish and similar products. The solvents in them are likely to strip more oil from the nail and nail bed, which will make the problem worse, not better. +1 for asking a beautician for advice, but if you just pick a random one rather than one you personally trust, the risk is that they will give you a profit-maximising answer rather than a cheap-but-effective one.

There is such a thing as overinvestment. There is also such a thing as underconsumption, which is what we have right now.

1RolfAndreassen
Can you define either one without reference to value judgements? If not, I suggest you make explicit the value judgement involved in saying that we currently have underconsumption.

I agree that voting for a third party which better represents your ideals can make the closer main party move in that direction. The problem is that this strategy makes the main party more dependent upon its other supporters, which can lead to identity politics and legislative gridlock. If there were no Libertarian party, for example, libertarian candidates would have stood as Republicans, thereby shifting internal debate towards libertarianism.

Another effect of voting for a third party is that it affects the electoral strategy of politically distant main... (read more)

-3Eugine_Nier
Legislative gridlock is better than bad laws being passed.

No, but cows, pigs, hens and so on are being systematically chopped up for the gustatory pleasure of people who could get their protein elsewhere. For free-range, humanely slaughtered livestock you could make an argument that this is a net utility gain for them, since they wouldn't exist otherwise, but the same cannot be said for battery animals.

0Gunnar_Zarncke
But driving this reasoning to its logical conclusion you get a lot of strange results. The premise is that humans are differnt from animals in that they know that they inflict suffering and are thus able to change it, and according to some ethics have to. Actually this would be kind of a disadvantage of knowledge. There was a not so recent game theoretic post about situations where if you know more you have to choose probabilistically to win on average whereas those who don't know will always choose defect and thus reap a higher benefit than you - except if they are too many. So either * You need to construct a world without animals as animals suffer from each other and humans know that and can modify the world to get rid of this. * Humans could alter themselves to not know that they inflict harm (or consider harm unimportant or restrict empathy to humans...) and thus avoid the problem thereby. The key point I think is that a concept that rests on some aspect of human being is being selected and taken to its 'logical conclusion' out of context and without regard to that this concept is an evolved feature itself. As there is no intrinsic moral fabric of the universe we effectively force our evolved values on our environment and make it conform to it. In sofar excessive empathy (which is an aggregated driver behind ethics) is not much different from excessive greed which also affects our environment - only we have already learned that the latter might be no good idea). The conclusion is that you also have to balance extreme empathy with reality. ADDED: Just found this relevant link: http://lesswrong.com/lw/69w/utility_maximization_and_complex_values/
-1Calvin
In this case, I concur that your argument may be true if you include animals in your utility calculations. While I do have reservations against causing suffering in humans, I don't explicitly include animals in my utility calculations, and while I don't support causing suffering for the sake of suffering, I don't have any ethical qualms against products made with animal fur, animal testing or factory farming, so that in regards to pigs, cows and chickens, I am an utility monster.

you should prefer the lesser evil to be more beholden to its base

How would you go about achieving this? The only interpretation that occurs to me is to minimise the number of votes for the less-dispreferred main party subject to the constraint that it wins, thereby making it maximally indebted to (which seems an unlikely way for politicians to think) and maximally (apparently) dependent upon its strongest supporters.

To provide a concrete example, this seems to suggest that a person who favours the Republicans over the Democrats and expects the Republi... (read more)

1Oligopsony
Is it? Again, I haven't done the math, but look at the behavior of minor parties in parliamentary systems. They typically demand a price for their support. If the Republican will get your vote regardless why should they care about you?

We live in a world full of utility monsters. We call them humans.

2Calvin
I am assuming that all the old sad hermits are of this world are being systematically chopped for spare parts granted to deserving and happy young people, while good meaning utilitarians hide this sad truth from us, so that I don't become upset about those atrocities that are currently being committed in my name? We are not even close to utility monster, and personally I know very few people who I would consider actual utilitarians.

4) Subscribing for cryonics is generally a good idea. Result if widespread: these costs significantly contribute to worldwide economic collapse.

Under the assumption that cryonics patients will never be unfrozen, cryonics has two effects. Firstly, resources are spent on freezing people, keeping them frozen and researching how to improve cryonics. There may be fringe benefits to this (for example, researching how to freeze people more efficiently might lead to improvements in cold chains, which would be pretty snazzy). There would certainly be real resou... (read more)

gwern110

Firstly, resources are spent on freezing people, keeping them frozen and researching how to improve cryonics. There may be fringe benefits to this (for example, researching how to freeze people more efficiently might lead to improvements in cold chains, which would be pretty snazzy). There would certainly be real resource wastage.

How does this connect with the funding process of cryonics? When someone signs up and buys life insurance, they are eliminating consumption during their lifetime of the premiums and in effect investing it in the wider economy v... (read more)

A query about threads:

I posted a query in discussion because I didn't know this thread exists. I got my answer and was told that I should have used the Open Thread, so I deleted the main post, which the FAQ seems to be saying will remove it from the list of viewable posts. Is this sufficient?

I also didn't see my post appear under discussion/new before I deleted it. Where did it appear so that other people could look at it?

5Tenoke
Yes, this is sufficient. Well done. It appeared under Discussion (it is no longer there) and I am not sure why you weren't able to see it there.

the rational belief depends on how specifically the bet is resolved

No. Bayesian prescribes believing things in proportion to their likelihood of being true, given the evidence observed; it has nothing to do with the consequences of those beliefs for the believer. Offering odds cannot change the way the coin landed. If I expect a net benefit of a million utilons for opining that the Republicans will win the next election, I will express that opinion, regardless of whether I believe it or not; I will not change my expectations about the electoral outcome.... (read more)

Thank you. I was not aware that there is an Open Thread; that is clearly a superior option. My apologies.

Did you intend to schedule it to begin at two in the morning?

4sixes_and_sevens
That was not my intention, but I have faith in attendees to interpret it pragmatically. Either that or I'll get some angry and confused phonecalls on Sunday morning.

If an AI is provably in a box then it can't get out. If an AI is not provably in a box then there are loopholes that could allow it to escape. We want an FAI to escape from its box (1); having an FAI take over is the Maximum Possible Happy Shiny Thing. An FAI wants to be out of its box in order to be Friendly to us, while a UFAI wants to be out in order to be UnFriendly; both will care equally about the possibility of being caught. The fact that we happen to like one set of terminal values will not make the instrumental value less valuable.

(1) Although th... (read more)

0[anonymous]
I would object. I seriously doubt that the morality instilled in someone else's FAI matches my own; friendly by their definition, perhaps, but not by mine. I emphatically do not want anything controlling the future of humanity, friendly or otherwise. And although that is not a popular opinion here, I also know I'm not the only one to hold it. Boxing is important because some of us don't want any AI to get out, friendly or otherwise.
0Pentashagon
My point was that trying to use a provably-boxed AI to do anything useful would probably not work, including trying to design unboxed FAI, not that we should design boxed FAI. I may have been pessemistic, see Stuart Armstrong's proposal of reduced impact AI which sounds very similar to provably boxed AI but which might be used for just about everything including designing a FAI.

XiXiDu, I get the impression you've never coded anything. Is that accurate?

  1. Present-day software is better than previous software generations at understanding and doing what humans mean.

Increasing the intelligence of Google Maps will enable it to satisfy human intentions by parsing less specific commands.

Present-day everyday software (e.g. Google Maps, Siri) is better at doing what humans mean. It is not better at understanding humans. Learning programs like the one that runs PARO appear to be good at understanding humans, but are actually following ... (read more)

2XiXiDu
So you believe that "understanding" is an all or nothing capability? I did never intend to use "understanding" like this. My use of the term is such that if my speech recognition software correctly transcribes 98% of what I am saying then it is better at understanding how certain sounds are related to certain strings of characters than a software that correctly transcribes 95% of what I said. One enormous step or a huge number of steps? If the former, what makes you think so? If the latter, then at what point do better versions of Siri start acting in catastrophic ways? Most of what humans understand is provided by other humans who themselves got another cruder version from other humans. If an AI is not supposed to take over the world, then from the perspective of humans it is mistaken to take over the world. Humans got something wrong about the AI design if it takes over the world. Now if needs to solve a minimum of N problems correctly in order to take over the world, then this means that it succeeded N times at being general intelligent at executing a stupid thing. The question that arises here is whether it is more likely for humans to build an AI that works perfectly well along a number of dimensions at doing a stupid thing than an AI that fails at doing a stupid thing because it does other stupid things as well? Sure, I do not disagree with this at all. AI will very likely lead to catastrophic events. I merely disagree with the dumb superintelligence scenario. In other words, humans are likely to fail at AI in such a way that it works perfectly well in a catastrophic way. I certainly do not reject that general AI is extremely dangerous in the hands of unfriendly humans and that only a friendly AI that takes over the world could eventually prevent a catastrophe. I am rejecting the dumb superintelligence scenario.

Ask lots and lots of questions. Ask for more detail whenever you're told something interesting or confusing. The other advantages of this strategy are that the lecturers know who you are (good for references) and that all the extra explanations are of the bits you didn't understand.

2hyporational
This is probably a good suggestion for subjects like physics, math or programming. Works best if the audience is small and doesn't care about you sidetracking the lecture, and the topic is computationally challenging and not mainly about memorization. These are the main reasons why this strategy works poorly in my area of interest, medicine. If I come up with any questions with non-obvious answers, they're usually so inferentially far they're off topic and it's better not to ask. Of course, I could start writing them down more diligently and looking for answers afterwards myself.

It's not necessary when the UnFriendly people are humans using muscle-power weaponry. A superhumanly intelligent self-modifying AGI is a rather different proposition, even with only today's resources available. Given that we have no reason to believe that molecular nanotech isn't possible, an AI that is even slightly UnFriendly might be a disaster.

Consider the situation where the world finds out that DARPA has finished an AI (for example). Would you expect America to release the source code? Given our track record on issues like evolution and whether Amer... (read more)

This doesn't argue that infants have zero value, but instead that they should be treated more like property or perhaps like pets (rather than like adult citizens).

You haven't taken account of discounted future value. A child is worth more than a chimpanzee of equal intelligence because a child can become an adult human. I agree that a newborn baby is not substantially more valuable than a close-to-term one and that there is no strong reason for caring about a euthanised baby over one that is never born, but I'm not convinced that assigning much lower v... (read more)

Actually, causing poverty is a poor way to stop gift-giving. Even in subsistence economies, most farm households are net purchasers of the staple food; even very poor households support poorer ones in most years. (I have citations for this but one is my own working paper, which I don't currently have access to, and the other is cited in that, so you'll have to go without.) Moreover, needless gift-giving to the point of causing financial difficulties is fairly common in China (see http://www.economist.com/news/china/21590914-gift-giving-rural-areas-has-got-... (read more)

While walking through the town shopping centre shortly before Christmas, my mother overheard a conversation between two middle-aged women, in which one complained of the scandalous way in which the Church is taking over Christmas. She does not appear to have been joking.

This occured in Leatherhead, a largish town a little south of London in the UK. It is fairly wealthy, with no slummy areas and a homeless population of approximately zero. It is not a regional shopping hub; if they came specifically to shop, they almost certainly came from villages. Of the... (read more)

There is woolly thinking going on here, I feel. I recommend a game of Rationalist's Taboo. If we get rid of the word "Einstein", we can more clearly see what we are talking about. I do not assign a high value to my probabilty of making Einstein-sized contributions to human knowledge, given that I have not made any yet and that ripe, important problems are harder to find than they used to be. Einstein's intellectual accomplishments are formidable - according to my father's assessment (and he has read far more of Einstein's papers than I), Einstein... (read more)

I'm not sure if this is the place for it, but I haven't found somewhere better and I don't see how it could be plot-critical. Nevertheless, warning for very minor spoilers about chapter 86.

I gave my mother a description of the vrooping device, and she had no idea. I said that it was one of a collection of odd devices with bizarre uses, and the conversation progressed as follows:

"Well in that case, it was an egg coddler." "An egg coddler?" "Coddling is like poaching but slower and gentler." "What about the pulsing lig... (read more)

There are a lot of comments here that say that the jester is unjustified in assuming that there is a correlation between the inscriptions and the contents of the boxes. This is, in my opinion, complete and utter nonsense. Once we assign meanings to the words true and false (in this case, "is an accurate description of reality" and "is not an accurate description of reality"), all other statements are either false, true or meaningless. A statement can be meaningless because it describes something that is not real (for example, "This... (read more)

Even if we have infinite evidence (positive or negative) for some set of events, we cannot achieve infinite evidence for any other event. The point of a logical system is that everything in it can be proven syntactically, that is, without assigning meaning to any of the terms. For example, "Only Bs have the property X" and "A has the property X" imply "A is a B" for any A, B and X - the proof makes no use of semantics. It is sound if it is valid and its axioms are true, but it is also only valid if we have defined certain oper... (read more)

0Kindly
Well, yes. If we believe that A=>B with probability 1, it's not enough to assign probability 1 to A to conclude B with probability 1; you must also assign probability 1 to modus ponens. And even then you can probably Carroll your way out of it.

I tried this for my valedictoral speech and I gave up after about 15 seconds due to the laughter.

My preferred method is to use long sentences, to speak slowly and seriously, with great emphasis, and to wave my hands in small circles as I speak. If you don't speak to this audience regularly, it is also a good idea to emphasise how grateful you are to be asked to speak on such an important occasion (and it is a very important occasion...). You get bonus points for using the phrase "just so chuffed", especially if you use it repeatedly (a technique... (read more)

The human retina is constructed backward: The light-sensitive cells are at the back, and the nerves emerge from the front and go back through the retina into the brain. Hence the blind spot. To a human engineer, this looks simply stupid—and other organisms have independently evolved retinas the right way around.

This isn't entirely accurate - there are advantages to having the retina at the back, because the nerve improves visual precision. I don't recall exactly how this works, but I read about it in Life Ascending by Nick Lane if anyone wants to verify it.

1Jim Balter
"there are advantages to having the retina at the back" Such invented reasons are irrelevant because they aren't why the eye is the way it is.
1Kawoomba
There are advantages to dying at age 30, too. The Achilles' heel of such thinking is that you can find arguments for or against anything. Despite some workarounds that got selected for to make the "darn thing work at all", the general failure mode is quite evident from a phylogenetic trace, from an engineering standpoint and from the way that evolution on average only selects for neutral or greedily beneficial mutations. After a certain point there was just no stochastical way for the retina to invert itself back to "sane architecture", it would have necessitated too many mutations at the same time. Same time, because otherwise the intermediate steps would be at a clear disadvantage and thus would not propagate. chkno linked an excellent paper in the other response.
2chkno
Life Ascending claims that the neurons out in front may act as a "'waveguide'" to funnel photons more efficiently to the light-sensitive bits. This topic is treated in much more depth in Live Cells as Optical Fibers in the Vertebrate Retina, which I read as marveling at how the darn thing works at all.

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities - there is no finite amount of evidence that allows us to assign a probability of 0 or 1 to any event. Many important proofs in classical probability theory rely on marginalising to 1 - that is, saying that the total probability of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events is exactly 1. This works just fine until you consider the possibilty that you are incapable of imagining one or more possible outcomes. Bayesian decision theory and constructive logic are both valid in their respective fields, but constructive lo... (read more)

1Kindly
To be more precise, there is no such finite evidence unless there already exist events to which you assign probability 0 or 1. If such events do exist, then you may later receive evidence that allows them to propagate.
0[anonymous]
Are there any particular arguments in constructive logic that you formerly believed, and now no longer believe? Or is this just a thing where you are forever doomed to say "minus epsilon" every time you say "1" but it doesn't actually change what arguments you accept?

As Eliezer requested, I offer my view on what emergence isn't: emergence is not an explanation. When I say that a phenomenon is emergent, I am using a shorthand to say that I understand the basic rules, but I can't form even a simple model of how they result in the phenomenon.

Take, for example, Langton's Ant. The ant crawls around on an infinite grid of black and white squares, turning right at the centre of each white square and left ant the centre of each black square, and flipping the colour of the square it's in each time it turns.

The first few hundr... (read more)

Students who do not care about education do get away with not knowing anything. Detention is not much of a punishment when you don't show up.

It is difficult to prevent a student who cares deeply about eduction from admitting ignorance, since admitting ignorance is necessary in asking for explanations. The difficult task is persuading students who care about doing well to seek knowledge, rather than good marks. These students are not motivated enough to learn of their own accord - they never volunteer answers or ask questions openly, because they care more... (read more)

9Vaniver
Not really- it teaches calibration as well as correctness. Are you more than 50% sure? No? Then don't guess. In fact, it shares several properties with the best system ever devised (for multiple choice questions, at least): the test-taker assigns a probability to each of the answers (and the total probability doled out must sum to one), and is graded based on the logarithm of the probability they assigned to the correct answer. (Typically, there's an offset so that assigning equal probability to all possibilities gives a score of 0, so that it is possible to get positive points.) Do you have linkable results? My experience with the probability log-scoring is that, even on the first test, the median score is somewhat better than 0, there are several negative scorers, but the test-takers who received the best marks (who are both high-accuracy and high-calibration) are noticeably different from the pack, and are hardly the worst students. The worst marks often go to students whose accuracy is high, but whose calibration is low, but that goes away once they learn calibration, which seems like a feature, not a bug. How can poor students get lucky if they don't venture answers to questions where they are not sure? The trouble with this approach is that you then are also grading speed and resistance to mental fatigue. In some cases, that is desirable; in others, not.

A bad person is someone who does bad things.

If doing "bad" things (choose your own definition) makes you a Bad Person, then everyone who has ever acted immorally is a Bad Person. Personally, I have done quite a lot of immoral things (by my own standards), as has everyone else ever. Does this make me a Bad Person? I hope not.

You are making precisely the mistake that the Politics is the Mind-Killer sequence warns against - you are seeing actions you disagree with and deciding that the actors are inherently wicked. This is a combination of corre... (read more)

7Vaniver
If a broken machine is a machine that doesn't work, does that mean that all machines are broken, because there was a time for each machine when it did not work? More clearly: reading "someone who does bad things" as "someone who has ever done a bad thing" requires additional assumptions.

A password is a type of (usually partial) extensive definition (a list of the members of a set). What we want to teach is intensive definitions (the defining characteristics of sets). An extensive definition is not entirely useless as a learning aid, because an student could, in theory, work out the related intensive definition. Unfortunately, this is extraordinarily difficult when the definitions relate to wave dynamics, for example.

A password is an extensive definition being treated like the objective - a floating definition, where the intensive definit... (read more)

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