All of Collisteru's Comments + Replies

If you will keep consuming a non-expirable household item forever, and if you have plenty of free space, why don't you have a lifetime supply?

This may apply to soap, shampoo, toilet paper, detergent, paper towels, sponges, aluminum foil, trash bags, sandwich bags, most household cleaners, q-tips, rubber gloves, nails, screws, paper, matches, band-aids, light bulbs and (if these never expire) toothpaste, batteries, markers and pens, and many over-the-counter pharmaceuticals.

There are legitimate arguments against stockpiling, like ease of moving and expecting technology to improve. If you weigh these explicitly rather than just following the crowd, you're much more likely to find the optimal supply.

1JBlack
There are serious problems even stockpiling a decade worth of most of these items. Most of the items in your list do actually expire. Many household cleaners degrade over time, rubber gloves perish, band-aids develop adhesive problems (such as becoming unrecoverably bonded to their packaging), and all of the things you listed in "if these never expire" do actually expire, except some pharmaceuticals. It is not easy to find out which ones, and if your findings are incorrect you could die. Bar soap isn't too bad, but some varieties can either deliquesce from humidity or crack and powder. Liquid soaps and shampoos can degrade in as little as a year. Toilet paper is bulky. For things like screws and nails, you can keep quite a stockpile but you will definitely not know how many of which types you're going to need 50 years in advance. These are just some of the things I've noticed so far in my life without even trying to stockpile. I expect there are websites devoted to things like long-term fallout shelters and such that will have a lot more detail on the things that can go wrong with maintaining 20+ year supplies of everyday things.
5Dagon
You won't keep consuming the exact thing forever, you don't have plenty of space, even non-perishables can be damaged or degrade in long-term storage, and you don't want to expend organizational and indexing capacity on something you can just buy later. For personal-use commodities, the optimal amount is generally whatever unit Costco offers, or the duration of your cost/convenience indifference point for thinking about it.  I know of zero cases where that's more than a year for me, and of zero where it's more than 3 years for anyone I talk with. Actually, I may have over a years' worth of some light bulbs and some battery sizes.  It's insane to propose "lifetime", though - these things will get somewhat better or cheaper (relative to my income) over time, and I can't really predict any changes in size or preference changes over more than a few years. I'd love to see the calculation / estimate of savings for some things you prefer to pre-pay and then store at your cost and risk for more than a few years, rather than waiting to buy closer to when needed.  
4Gunnar_Zarncke
Things that I buy in bulk once I have settled on a satisfactory option: * pens, whiteboard marker  * writing pads * sticky tape and poster strips (I love these) * tooth paste * soap, shower gel, shampoo * socks, underwear But typically not more than a year's worth or 100€ per bulk.
2Richard_Kennaway
In my experience the reasons you give against stockpiling, and several others, are invariably overwhelming. You mention lack of space, change of technology, shelf life, and difficulty of moving. To these I add change of taste, discovery of new things that I like better than what I have, the mental burden of having so much stuff, the futile attempt to stop time instead of flexibly responding to whatever life brings, and that a lifetime supply could be very much larger than you're thinking given radical life extension or the singularity. Instead my rule is: one in use and one spare. When the spare comes into use, I replace it at my next convenience. The numbers can vary (I have several pens in every room, a box of spares, and two in my pocket whenever I go out), but that is the general principle.
4Pattern
That is a great point. I would like to add: 'The optimal' X is not static. (Even if there's only one.) The optimal supply of some items - including toilet paper, and probably water - has changed in my lifetime.

Exactly. Horses are intelligent enough to understand involuntary body language, but they still can't create societies. Harari argues that this is a point in favor of the idea that communication alone is not sufficient for mass cooperation.

What about the shame that comes with missing an opportunity?

Who has been hurt: yourself, because you can't benefit from that opportunity anymore, and possibly others who also would have benefited.

What must be made right: this is where I get stuck. No future opportunity can replace the one you missed; that cost will never come back. You can you possibly repay it?

2Phoenix Eliot
Perhaps the thing to make right is to make yourself better able to take advantage of that kind of thing in the future when something similar comes up down the line? You can always only ever change the future, so mostly I find "what must be made right" is my future behavior around some situation that I've not been acting my best in. I find that really freeing, myself, since it explicitly maps to how there is no sense in beating yourself up about the past as long as you've adjusted your behavior to be better for the future. If you've acted sufficiently on your shame in that kind of way, that's enough to let yourself release your shame because you've done all you can do to make it right. For social situations where someone specific was wronged, stuff like apologies can help repair past damage, but I think that mostly just applies to social things. Maybe with yourself if you find that helpful to apologize to yourself about things (some might, some won't).

Predicting on an individual basis would be more accurate, since it's much more likely to catch edge cases and follow preference changes over time. At the same time, it's more expensive and the price scales with the size of your customer base, unlike categorization. That's probably why most businesses don't practice it. Social media algorithms use both, maybe because technologies like neural networks push the price down.

I enjoyed and agreed with the first part of this article: I think the analogy of the random walk is an interesting way to think about progress in ethics. The section addressing moral relativism does raise a few questions, though.

Ethics is fundamentally subjective, but not relative.

Could you clarify what you meant by this? What is the difference between the terms, in context?

The Snowmass example has a few problems. To begin, religion =/= ethics. None of the Points of Agreement involve ethics in a meaningful way and they're all vague, involving meani... (read more)

3lsusr
By "subjective" I mean that ethics is not meaningful without an observer. There can be no meaningful ethics in a lifeless, brain-less world without actors. By "relative" I mean taking the measure of an ethical system relative to another ethical system. "Differences in degrees Celsius" is a relative measure but "degrees Kelvin" is an absolute measure. As someone with experience meditating, I don't think these are religious Barnum statements at all. But this is not obvious if you have not had certain experiences for yourself. It isn't. But we are all the same species and tend to be similar to each other in the most fundamental ways. Study one mouse thoroughly enough and you will learn a lot about mice in general. I would love to see a wealth of scientific data on the effect of mystical practice on happiness and other metrics like default mode activation, but such data does not exist right now.

Also, in the case you gave, safety isn't being destroyed by the truth, it's being destroyed by the general public's reaction to the truth. It is pointless to give threats to anybody for a past action, so this is just another case of an irrational emotional response by the collective.

But this is an interesting case of how the pure practice of rationality can be dangerous in an irrational world: is it truly moral to pursue (and in this case, expose) the truth when you can't expect everyone else to handle or react to it properly? One poss... (read more)