All of Craig_Heldreth's Comments + Replies

What would make you personally use the new LessWrong?

Quality content. Quality content. And quality content.

Is there any specific feature that would make you want to use it?

The features which I would most like to see:

Wiki containing all or at least most of the jargon.

Rationality quotations all in one file alphabetically ordered by author of the quote.

Book reviews and topical reading lists.

Pie in the sky: the Yudkowsky sequences edited, condensed, and put into an Aristotelian/Thomsian/Scholastic order. (Not that Aristotle or Thomas Aquinas eve... (read more)

3DragonGod
Doesn't Rationality: From AI to Zombies achieve this already?

Who is your favorite philosopher?

Do you have a favorite atheist philosopher?

If not the same guy as for question number one, who is your favorite philosopher that 95% of the philosophy academy never reads?

I was sitting in the audience as they got into the part where Bottom acts like an ass and this is supposed to be funny. I was just waiting for them to get it over with, and then remembered that there was nothing after it in the play that I looked forward to anyway.

Your unease may be from the audience reaction, not the action on stage. The action on stage is black magic, in which the King of the Fairies can get away with it because he is powerful enough to escape the consequences of black magic dabbling. This is pretty damn terrifying and not funny at a... (read more)

0NancyLebovitz
Getting the right empathic distance for humor is a subtle question. As far as I can tell, the idea that love potions are a horrible invasion of individual autonomy is only a few decades old.

Are there good reasons why when I do a google search on (Leary site:lesswrong.com) it comes up nearly empty? His ethos consisted of S.M.I**2.L.E, i.e. Space Migration + Intelligence Increase + Life Extension which seems like it should be right up your alley to me. His books are not well-organized; his live presentations and tapes had some wide appeal.

2KrisC
Leary won me over with those goals. I have adopted them as my own. It's the 8 circuits and the rest of the mysticism I reject. Some of it rings true, some of it seems sloppy, but I doubt any of it is useful for this audience.
0timtyler
Probably an attempt to avoid association with druggie disreputables.

I am generally surprised when people say things like "I am surprised that topic X has not come up in forum / thread Y yet." The set of all possible things forum / thread Y could be talking about is extremely large. It is not in fact surprising that at least one such topic X exists.

Write up a discussion post with an overview of what you think we'd find novel :)

Very nice.

I was reminded of this golden oldie from the '90's:

"Bill Clinton is an extraordinarily good liar." --Larry Nichols

I found another physician online endorsing a mg or two daily lithium supplement:

Lithium and Inflammation

Lithium and Longevity

(found the blog on the paleo sub-reddit). I was going to the herb and vitamin store this afternoon anyway to get some ginseng and I am going to see if they have those 1mg lithium pills and if they have them and they aren't 25$ a hundred or anything ridiculous I am thinking I am going to take the plunge and do at least one short experiment.

When I took Edward Tufte's graphics class one of the questions was about website design. He said the gold standard is the Google News website. Almost all signal and almost no noise. This design is not bad at all but it might work better as an "About" page than as the main page. The main page should be precisely what you were looking for when you entered whatever you put into the search engine when it referred you to the LessWrong main page.

David Pearce was still taking questions as of an hour ago. He gave me a much more thorough answer to my question than I have gotten in the two other AMA's I submitted questions to. Neil Strauss and the Atlantic writer whose name slips me at the moment both gave me terrible drive by answers with about two seconds of thought behind them.

This article showed up on the front page of HackerNews and on the front page of metafilter today.

Do you know anyone who might fall into this category, i.e. someone who was exposed to Less Wrong but failed to become an enthusiast, potentially due to atmosphere issues?

Yes. I know a couple of people with whom I share interest in Artificial Intelligence (this is my primary focus in loading Less Wrong web pages) who communicated to me that they did not like the site's atmosphere. Atmosphere is not exactly the word they used. One person thought the cryonics was a deal breaker. (If you read the piece in the New York Times Sunday Magazine about Robin Hanso... (read more)

This is all good information. One thing missing in the seat belt part. Everybody in the car needs to be buckled down and heavy cargo like your laptop should be stowed in the trunk. There is a great video they showed in my defensive driving class which was an Irish television public service advertisement with four people in a car and three of them were wearing their seat belts and they were in an accident and everybody got killed with the unbuckled passenger flopping around the inside of the passenger compartment like a billiard ball.

4wedrifid
I hadn't realized that other people not wearing a seatbelt could kill me. That makes a certain amount of sense. Mind you I'd speculate that the chance of three buckled people dying due to one ricochetting fourth passenger where those three would not have died anyway is approximately a gazzilion to one and has never ever happened.

Anthropologist John Hawks (quoted in the Discover article) in this video (at the 9:23 mark) shows data on the shrinking human brain over 16000 years. On his display it looks to me like the scatter extrema for today are over twice as large as the decline in the linear regression line. The number of data points from 16000 years ago is not large.

From the article:

Some 30 animals have been domesticated, he notes, and in the process every one of them has lost brain volume—typically a 10 to 15 percent reduction compared with their wild progenitors.

A strong claim if true.

I found this book on google scholar and the parts of it I read supported this claim more than refuted it but were not so definitive and absolute.

Here's what it says on the label of mine:

Manganese 2.3 Mg 115%

Anybody want to plug a one pill supplement a middle class American could find easy?

8Scott Alexander
Have you considered not taking anything? Most studies show multivitamins have somewhere between no effect and a slight negative effect except in groups with special nutritional issues. It might be possible to optimize further with the right combination (if the lack of effect from multivitamins is because they include both beneficial and harmful chemicals with a net zero effect) but I don't really think we know enough to do that right now.
0Jonathan_Graehl
Every multivitamin I've had is at least 2mg Manganese/pill. Cut the pill in half and it's half as bad for you?

The government security clearance manuals have documented what can be reduced to procedures and rules and whatnot. I know a guy who worked for the CIA a few years ago and he tells me the most trusted positions are the guys who do the security clearance evaluations. He said over half of them were Mormons. (Friend of a friend information is inherently untrustworthy.) One of the greatest spies in American history, James Angleton, was apparently paranoid to the brink of mental illness. It is generally a very difficult problem.

2rysade
Upvoted for bringing up the intelligence community's viewpoint on trust. I would say we could find some very interesting research on trust from that area. I think that because the intelligence community seems to be adversarial to a large degree. The problem of the double agent or mole, for example, would very likely lead intelligence agencies to invest heavily in metrics of trust. The last job fair I went to I looked into a career with the CIA. I found they have extremely strict rules on who they hire, up to and including personality traits like patriotism.

The gold standard of such institutions is The Royal Philosophical Society.

Perhaps some form of The __ Philosophical Society.

What goes in the blank I am drawing a blank on. The California or Silicon Valley P.S. would be fine. The opposite of Royal is Commoner so the Common P. S. might be OK. Or Common Sense P.S. Or Real or Reality P. S. I would not use Bayes as a bunch of physical scientists whose attention you might want to attract are nigh-dogmatic frequentists right now but could presumably be weaned from their dogma.

8beoShaffer
Not sure if the're good ideas, but the following appear to be free. The Practical Philosophical Society The Modern Philosophical Society The Empirical Philosophical Society. If anyone on LW happens to be surprisingly well connected "The Royal Rationality Society" would be great.

This is not likely to be implemented easily here. When I looked at the poll it was around 20 for and 20 against having a politics open thread.

What could be done easily is start a subreddit lesswrongpoliticsbeta and if there did happen to be a great discussion on some topic ongoing there then put a pointer to it in the discussion sections here.

This is a series of posts by a fellow who volunteered on a suicide hotline for a number of years which I found informative. It provides the straightest answers I have seen to the question: how do you talk a stranger off the ledge?

This is an aggregation of resources on another website which has discussed the issue in detail.

Yeah I remember that and it was certainly a megalomaniacal slip.

But I do not agree that arrogant is the correct term. I suspect "arrogant" may be a brief and inaccurate substitute for: "unappealing, but I cannot be bothered to come up with anything specific". In my dictionaries (I checked Merriam-Webster and American Heritage), arrogant is necessarily overbearing. If you are clicking on their website or reading their literature or attending their public function there isn't any easy way for them to overbear upon you.

When Terrel Owens d... (read more)

Fair question, but not an easy one to answer.

I signed up for the reading group along with the 2600 Redditors. It was previously posted about here. The book is an entry point to issues of Artificial Intelligence, consciousness, cognitive biases and other subjects which interest me. I enjoy the book every time I read from it, but I believe I am missing something which could be provided in a group reading or a group study. As I stated in the previous thread, I am challenged by the musical references. The last time I read music notation routinely was when I s... (read more)

0multifoliaterose
I know Bach's music quite well from a listener's perspective though not from a theoretician's perspective. I'd be happy to share some pieces recordings that I've enjoyed / have found accessible. Your last paragraph is obscure to me and I share your impression that you started to ramble :-).

It would be easier to discuss the merits (or lack) of the book if you specify something about the book you believe lacks merit. The opinion that the book is overly hyped is a common criticism, but is too vague to be refuted.

It was a bestseller. Of course many of those people who bought it are silly.

1multifoliaterose
I wasn't opening up discussion of the book so much as inquiring why you find the fact that you cite interesting.
0Grognor
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5015
5multifoliaterose
Why do you bring this up? For what it's worth my impression is that while there exist people who have genuinely benefited from the book; a very large majority of the interest expressed in the book is almost purely signaling.

Here is another snip from the text. It is from lecture # 3 The great conservation principles.

"For those who want some proof that physicists are human, the proof is in the idiocy of all the different units they use for measuring energy." (p 75 of the 1967 MIT press edition)

This is a question where fiction might give us more insight than fact. If you read realistic novels from the 19th century you will find right away that many of the characters are atheists or agnostics. The gold standard novel is War and Peace which contains only one overtly religious character (Maria Bolkonskaya) if I recall correctly. More than one of the characters is overtly atheist. Tolstoy could put this into fiction when his counterparts in the Physics department and the Philosophy department and the Political Science department would not dare to say it.

0MugaSofer
Seems legit.

Do you have html for those documents? PDF is OK for me, but my guess is html is more openly accessible.

4Emile
Seconded, I find pdf annoying, especially on my home computer where they don't open in a browser tab, but in a separate application. I don't see any benefit at all to pdf, except for stuff that needs to be printed out so you can write on it or something.

More references to Cannabis research.

Hard to come by because of the legal restrictions. The best sources I have seen:

Altered States of Consciousness edited by Charles Tart, 1969, Wiley.

Pharmako/Poeia by Dale Pendell, 1995, Mercury House.

They include pros and cons although it is obvious both guys are at least a little more pro than con. From Pendell's book: "Smoking it occasionally makes you wise; smoking it a lot turns you into a donkey." (p.199)

neural irregularities as pink noise, which is also called 1/f noise

A few minutes of fooling around with a color tool will show you that the spectrum of pink is flat (white) with a notch at the green and the 1/f spectrum is brown, nothing at all resembling pink. The misnomer of pink to label 1/f seems to come from a misconception that flat + a pole at red is pink (it's not--it's red) and 1/f (it's not--it's flat with a pole at red).

It is a pity this idea has gotten so much traction into the English language as it is so horribly wrong. It's like one of those things that Pauli would describe as "not even wrong."

Thank you for the link to Silver's piece. I followed 538 in 2008 but I had not looked at it in awhile. Obviously .9 is far too high.

9[anonymous]
Upvoted for updating.

The Super Bowl will not be Packers over Patriots in February 2012.

P=~.8 (80%)

Obama will win in November 2012.

P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)

6taw
Intrade gives him barely above 50% chance, so you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.
2wedrifid
I want to make a bet at those odds. Mostly based on gwern's reply.

90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver. (Also, existing prediction.)

I am reminded of an essay by the Anthropologist Edmund Leach, 'Once a Knight is Quite Enough' (p. 194ff in The Essential Edmund Leach Volume I 2000 Yale U. Press) where he details the parallels between his initiation into British knighthood by Q. Elizabeth II and a Borneo headhunter ceremony which he saw at the end of WWII. Headhunting was illegal at that time in Sarawak, but they got special permission as the two victims were Japanese soldiers. Anyway the idea was if you watched a silent movie of the two ceremonies and ignored the costumes, the two ritual... (read more)

I signed up.

I am mostly interested in this part: links to recordings and analysis of the relevant Bach pieces.

(My music skills are poor and that part of the book was a little over my head.)

Here is the link to the freakonomics post for those interested. I thought it was OK. You might also be interested in the works of Bill James. Bill James was doing freakonomics and cognitive bias analysis back in the early 1980's, selling his Bill James Baseball Abstract self-published to a list of subscribers gathered by word-of-mouth. He is the man most responsible for the state of modern Major League Baseball statistical analysis--the emphasis of On Base Percentage, the de-emphasis of pitchers' Won-Loss totals and a number of other changes and innovation... (read more)

0Vaniver
If you like movies, Moneyball is recent and about sabermetrics.

The bio guys I know thought doing and publishing this research was important because it underscores the hazard of factory pig and cattle farms. This experiment (they tell me) is ongoing without controls all over the globe. (I am not a biologist.)

Inside your google doc is a link to another google doc with "Strengths Finder" as the label which is restricted access. Is that from a publicly accessible aptitude test?

0curiousepic
StrengthsFinder is a commercial "strength assessment" test we did at my workplace. I was skeptical at first, anticipating horoscope-like results, and indeed it wasn't too insightful for myself, as each of the five areas it identified I was strong in were pretty obvious to myself and anyone else who knew me. What was more helpful was some associated communal discussion about them and learning what my co-workers thought about me. It could more more useful to others in seeking their comparative advantage in areas they may not have considered. But I have a feeling most LWers would probably get at least 3 of the 5 strengths it identified for me. I have made that doc public for anyone curious - it's straight copy and paste from the assessment test text. The action items are pared down and personally focused from the full list though. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ao3WdbvXTdcxCNJSkG_lU0ArVfx-PmAkzDh6b2EAzkI/edit

Did a physician inform you about the sleeping-on-side hack?

I personally know of an instance where a person had gastric reflux, went to the doctor, was prescribed a proton pump inhibitor as the sole treatment (Nexum), didn't get any better, went poking around the internet with google, and got non-medicine lifestyle adjustments (elevated bed head, fasting for five hours before bedtime) to fix their reflux problem. Then, later they told the doctor, who said nothing but "oh yeah".

We had no google in 1988 although surely some futurist genius somewhere foresaw it.

3NancyLebovitz
I got the sleeping on the left side hack from the wikipedia article. Seth Roberts posts articles now and then about physicians not being interested in patients who find (cheap/simple) cures for themselves.

Very nicely done.

For emphasis I cut and paste the following:

as an economist, I'm thinking about life on the margin. The extra decision: should we think more in terms of stories, or less in terms of stories? When we hear stories, should we be more suspicious? and what kind of stories should we be suspicious of?

This repetition of "at the margin" or "on the margin" and even calling his blog Marginal Revolution may be the biggest thing about Cowen's writing which really hooks me.

And now some narrative. In the beginning the story was a m... (read more)

1MixedNuts
That probably produces a lot of false positives!

challenge someone to put up or shut up.

That is exactly right. Challenging someone to put up or shut up is a confrontation and an escalation. That is how fistfights begin. The challenge is construed as being to their honor.

A well-written analysis of the dynamic is given by a lawyer, William Ian Miller, in Humiliation. Among the other interesting tales he tells is how a medieval Icelandic noble family feud began with a too extravagant gift.

9Emile
Does the fact that it's an escalation mean it's bad? Some bad things (fistfights) are escalations, but that doesn't magically make escalation bad. Instead of analogies to other bad things, we should analyze what makes things bad. A norm of responding to challenges to honor by (threats of) violence would mostly result in social status depending on capacity to inflict "acceptable" forms of violence (with a probable side effect of a lot of violence). Since that is not particularly correlated with "social usefulness" (except in case of war with all neighbours), that sounds pretty sucky to society compared to other ways of attributing status. A norm of responding to disagreements of fact by bets ("put up or shut up"), however, will make people less likely to publicly say provably untrue things, and gives an advantage to those who know what's true and what isn't - seems like a social good!

Can you imagine Angela Merkel or Margaret Thatcher or even Sarah Palin doing that? Offering to bet a lot of money on the issue in the middle of a debate is hyper-masculine, aggressive, and low class. It is not all that different from asking the guy if he wants to step outside.

Prediction markets where the other side of the bet is a faceless horde are completely different. There is no humiliation inflicted.

4Emile
That would seem totally in character for Sarah Palin to me (and even more so for Ann Coulter), but then I'm French, so my mental model of Palin may be a bit off. I don't see it as low class, and I consider "solving" disagreements by betting better than appeals to authority or agreeing to disagree. However it would seem a bit unseemly for someone already in a position of authority (like Thatcher or Merkel), I'm not totally sure why ... maybe because we want to know what they do, not what they think and say, and once they're in power they shouldn't have anything to prove any more. Offering to bet is a way to prove your thinking is correct, which is important for pundits and candidates, but not for those in power.
2buybuydandavis
I don't think it's low class. It's a rhetorical way to challenge someone to put up or shut up. It would have been smarter to bet $1. That makes it clear it's challenging the point. The dollar is a token of the challenge. And I think Thatcher would have done it, and she would have done it right with a single pound. As far as hyper aggressive, she had bigger stones than all our current candidates combined. Watch some youtubes of her at Question Time.

Intriguingly, even though the sample size increased by more than 6 times, most of these results are within one to two percent of the numbers on the 2009 survey, so this supports taking them as a direct line to prevailing rationalist opinion rather than the contingent opinions of one random group.

This is not just intriguing. To me this is the single most significant finding in the survey.

4endoself
It just means that we're at a specific point in memespace. The hypothesis that we are all rational enough to identify the right answers to all of these questions wouldn't explain the observed degree of variance.

It's also worrying, because it means we're not getting better on average.

Eagerly anticipating your analysis and the subsequent discussion.

Thanks again!

Kahneman gave a talk at Google about how and why intuition works well for us on 10 November. I am about halfway through it and so far it is marvelous.

Link.

edit The same talk (very close) at Edge transcribed plus discussion after with Cosmides and Tooby and Pinker. Link to transcript.

The last time I looked at prediction book the allowed values were integers 0 - 100 which makes it impossible to really use it for this. Here the meaningful values are is it .00001 or is it .0000000001?

I liked this fellow's take.

0Douglas_Knight
Miley Cyrus is claiming > 1%, so your objection to PB does not apply. MC might like to distinguish between 1.1% and 1.0%, but this is minor. If you're recording claims, not betting at odds, then rounding to zero is not a big deal. No one is going to make a million predictions at 1 in a million odds. One can enter it as 0 on PB and add a comment of precise probability. It is plausible that people want to make thousands of predictions at 1 in 1000, but this is an unimportant complaint until lots of people are making thousands of predictions at percent granularity. An advantage of PB over bilateral bets is that it encourages people to state their true probabilities and avoid the zero-sum game of setting odds. A well-populated market does this, too.

I concur that the Ann/Bob/Carol question is more taxing than the Cognitive Reflection Test.

In fact I can prove for my own case sample size N = 1. I scored 3/3 on the CRT and I missed Ann/Bob/Carol as I did not look at Bob as being unambiguously either married or unmarried and shot myself in my own damn foot on the sucker.

Also, that Ann/Bob/Carol question snagged a bunch of people. We have a lot of work to do.

0arundelo
Agreed. I wonder how many people got it wrong because they thought "married" and "unmarried" were not jointly exhaustive.

5 tabs. Three of them are related to the Akrasia poll and I will be closing them within 5 minutes. I do not like large numbers of open tabs.

This quotation from a failed Nature collaborative project from Nielsen's website leaped out to me:

"A small majority of those authors who did participate received comments, but typically very few, despite significant web traffic. Most comments were not technically substantive. Feedback suggests that there is a marked reluctance among researchers to offer open comments. "

Many of the folks here have pet projects where they imagine easy pickings out there and they wonder why nobody is much interested in pursuing them and free software and open so... (read more)

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