Hey, I actually had to Google the 80/20 rule because it wasn't too familiar to me.

80% of the output comes from 20% of the input.

I like applying this idea to my example a lot. Doing a job 20% of the way will have high yield results, after that... the effort to result tradeoff begins to fall off and you get less for your effort.

Thanks for the insight

Self-Handicapping isn't just for high-priority tasks, it effects the entire prioritization decision

CrimsonChin

5mo

I figured self-handicapping was reserved for heavy, load-bearing decisions. I assumed if I kept track of major goals and my actions, I could avoid this. This is a quick story of how I learned that self-handicapping seems to effect how I even prioritize things and how, keeping track of major goals might not suffice.

Self-Handicapping Goes Deeper Than I Thought

I've had a wobbly step at the bottom of my deck stairs that's been unsafe for about three months. I kept telling myself I'd get around to replacing the entire staircase—if the bottom step is rotted out, the rest will likely follow, right? Part of me wanted to just fix the single step, but... (read 505 more words →)

Replying toDo What the Mammals Do

CrimsonChin11mo

Do What the Mammals Do

I appreciate this. My phrasing of these is unnecessarily negative.

I was trying to exemplify patterns that human shouldn't push towards. To backup my claim that "biological does not mean good"

"Animals live outside" is the pattern. If I had one button that keeps everything the same and another that made all people live outside, I wouldn't push the button. Lots of people would die from exposure.

As you point out, the fact that animals live outside does contain some biological truth. Outside is healthy in a lot of ways. But living outside isn't "good" for humans because it's what our biological similars do.

Replying toDo What the Mammals Do

CrimsonChin11mo

Do What the Mammals Do

Thanks you prodded at a real issue I failed to notice in my post.

I claim the article is about: "natural does not mean good" Then I go off and seem to try to make a sneaky second claim: "Natural processes can't be proven/verified easily and should hold no weight"

With the second claim being a lot weaker. But I still stand by it.

If I could try to succinctly rephrase it in the context of your response here:

"Patterns are statistically significant and improbable without some outside force. So if we recognize a pattern, it's LIKELY that there is some attractor or gravity creating this pattern. BUT, the fact that something is naturally occuring or biological... (read more)

Do What the Mammals Do

CrimsonChin

11mo

In an interview, Erica Komisar discusses parenting extensively. I appreciate anyone who thinks deeply about parenting, so I mostly value Erica's contributions. However, I believe she is mistaken on many points.

One claim she makes follows a broader pattern that I find troubling. To paraphrase:

"Fathers can take on the primary caregiver role, but they would be fighting biology. It goes against what all mammals do."

I see this kind of reasoning frequently-arguments that begin with "From an evolutionary standpoint..." or "For mammals..." But this argument is nonsense. Not only is it incorrect, but I suspect that most people, when pressed, would find it indefensible. It often functions as a stand-in for more rigorous reasoning.

Disclaimer:

... (read 1036 more words →)

Replying toKnitting a Sweater in a Burning House

CrimsonChin1y

Knitting a Sweater in a Burning House

That's precisely the same thing. Thank you, that phrase somehow had never stuck in my mind

Knitting a Sweater in a Burning House

CrimsonChin

There's a phrase my wife and I use: "knitting a sweater in a burning house." It describes those moments when we find ourselves absorbed in trivial tasks while seemingly more important matters loom. The night before my wedding, I caught myself trying to reactivate an old Twitter profile for our handmade photobooth—a perfect example of this phenomenon.

At first glance, this might seem like a criticism of misplaced priorities. But I've come to believe there's a deeper complexity worth exploring.

Consider Jonas Salk in 1947. The world had just witnessed the devastating power of atomic weapons, and humanity faced what might have been its closest brush with extinction. The Cold War was beginning, and... (read 512 more words →)

Replying toSherlockian Abduction Master List

CrimsonChin2y

Sherlockian Abduction Master List

Dansko! Thats the clog!

Replying toSherlockian Abduction Master List

CrimsonChin2y

Sherlockian Abduction Master List

Personally I would lower the Claddagh rings to :low. At Least in the northeast US every Irish girl I know wears one regardless of relationship status and doesn't pay attention to the direction of it.

To add to it. Next time you are at a big clothing store check out the styles of pregnancy clothing. They have elastics around the tummy and often layers for nursing. They are pretty recognizable and a tell-tale sign someone is pregnant or postpartum. It's not uncommon for women To wear pregnancy clothes for a while after the pregnancy as their body is still changing and it's hard to change your wardrobe with a little one.

New parents are... (read more)

Replying toSherlockian Abduction Master List

CrimsonChin2y

Sherlockian Abduction Master List

Wanted to confirm. The map doesn't show it well but Boston folks primarily call it a bubbler. Source: from Boston and it's on this list of things people ask you to say

Replying toDoomsday Argument and the False Dilemma of Anthropic Reasoning

CrimsonChin2y

Doomsday Argument and the False Dilemma of Anthropic Reasoning

Eh I didn't think you can just ignore facts like the components of the bag. You could actually do this experiment, and the probability won't be 50%.

Replying toHow I Think, Part Two: Distrusting Individuals

CrimsonChin2y

How I Think, Part Two: Distrusting Individuals

That's fair. I guess if you will allow me to re-state my idea with your ideas in mind:

Aggregate rating systems are best. But occasionally they are wrong. Sometimes I will see a movie has a high rotten tomatoes score but I still hated it. I don't watch a lot of movies so this happens often actually. Having someone similar to me, who is watching highly rated movies can usually save me time by predicting whether I will like something or not.

You are right aggregate is best. But I think having an aligned friend who knows your preferences can help build on top of that. Or rather help me filter.

I'm my original post... (read more)

Replying toFailures in Kindness

CrimsonChin2y

Failures in Kindness

Forget where I read it, but this Idea seems similar. When responding to a request, being upfront about your boundaries or constraints feels intense but can be helpful for both parties. If Bob asks Alice to help him move, and Alice responds "sure thing" that leaves the interaction open to miscommunication. But if instead Alice says, " yeah! I am available 1pm to 5pm and my neck has been bothering me so no heavy lifting for me!" Although that's seems like less of a kind response Bob now doesn't have to guess at Alice's constraints and can comfortably move forward without feeling the need to tiptoe around how long and to what degree Alice can help.

Utility is relative

CrimsonChin

This is something that probably feels obvious, but has a big impact on my thought process.

Calculating a utility function

It's often helpful to calculate whether something has more benefits that costs. Call it a utility function, cost-benefit analysis, or whatever you want. A guy offers me ten dollars for my umbrella that I'm currently using to stay dry. I ask myself, how valuable is ten dollars, and how valuable is it to be dry right now? If my utility function comes out positive; if the benefits outweigh the costs... I take that deal, right?

The flaw in that logic

The issue is that "net positive utility" is rarely anyone's goal. Game theory is constantly trying to... (read 367 more words →)

Averaging samples from a population with log-normal distribution

CrimsonChin

This was originally a comment on this post by mruwnik regarding averaging various distributions with different distributions. I made it a post to include pictures.

The Central Limit Theorem, henceforth CLT, states (in my own words) that regardless of the distribution of a population, sample averages from that population should be normally distributed.

In theory it should hold for log-normal distributions but that doesn't feel intuitive to me so I tested it.

A silly example of CLT

An example I made up in my head to make sense of it:

Imagine a population comprised of all the people who nap 2 times in a day. Lets plot the ages of this population:

Mostly infants and elderly people nap,... (read 239 more words →)

Work culture creep

CrimsonChin

epistemic status: This is not my field of study. I am working through some ideas here that I think might resonate with the community.

I am a fun, happy, goofy dad. I can play music and perform magic tricks. I sing silly songs and make stupid jokes.

However, for 8 out of the 16 hours that I am awake, I sit at a desk, type, occasionally take phone calls, and talk about workflow. That's what I do 50% of my weekdays.

I am on a journey, trying to figure out what can be done to prevent these work habits from leaking into my personal life.

this post will be three major sections:

First, I'll argue that work

... (read 2224 more words →)

Unabridged History of Global Parenting

CrimsonChin

Epistemic status: I am not a historian or a psychologist. I am just a parent who read a few books. This is less formal than most lesswrong posts.

Disclaimer

From the beginning of time, parents have loved their children. I am in no way making fun of any parenting technique here. I believe all parents are just doing the best they can with the information they have.

The Chart

Before delving into my unabridged history of global parenting, I want to discuss a chart that you will come across everywhere. On one axis is the level of responsiveness a parent shows towards their child's wants and needs, while on the other axis is the level of... (read 1804 more words →)

The Importance of Judging: A Reflection on Rational Thought

CrimsonChin

Epistemic status: Mostly sorting out my own thoughts here. Feel free to try to convince me I am wrong.

In earlier drafts of this post, I held the belief that "judging people is bad." I even went to great lengths to avoid passing judgment and occasionally adjusted my moral framework accordingly. However, I have recently come to realize that my previous stance was mistaken. In this post, I will explain how I reached this conclusion, although I won't provide extensive evidence. While not a groundbreaking idea, this shift in my long-held belief holds personal significance to me.

Is Judging Beneficial?

Defining Judgment

For the purpose of this discussion, I will define judgment as follows:

Judgment is the... (read 962 more words →)

Conflict Resolution: the Game

CrimsonChin

epistemic status: very low. I am not a domain expert here. This was supposed to be a book review of Non-Violent communication by Marshall Rosenberg, but I got carried away. I welcome criticism and feedback.

Intro

Congratulations on purchasing the popular board game, "Conflict Resolution"! You may have heard of it or even played it before, but it's important to read the rules thoroughly to fully understand the game. Most importantly, have fun!

Goal

The goal of the game is to resolve a conflict between two parties under guidelines that protect both parties from mistreatment, abuse, or further hurt feelings. In an ideal world, we would resolve conflict by plugging our brains into each other, living... (read 2425 more words →)

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

CrimsonChin

Work culture creep

Knitting a Sweater in a Burning House

Self-Handicapping isn't just for high-priority tasks, it effects the entire prioritization decision

Averaging samples from a population with log-normal distribution

CrimsonChin

Self-Handicapping isn't just for high-priority tasks, it effects the entire prioritization decision

Do What the Mammals Do

Knitting a Sweater in a Burning House

Utility is relative

Averaging samples from a population with log-normal distribution

Work culture creep

Unabridged History of Global Parenting

CrimsonChin

Work culture creep

Knitting a Sweater in a Burning House

Self-Handicapping isn't just for high-priority tasks, it effects the entire prioritization decision

Averaging samples from a population with log-normal distribution

CrimsonChin

Self-Handicapping isn't just for high-priority tasks, it effects the entire prioritization decision

Do What the Mammals Do

Knitting a Sweater in a Burning House

Utility is relative

Averaging samples from a population with log-normal distribution

Work culture creep

Unabridged History of Global Parenting

Self-Handicapping Goes Deeper Than I Thought

Calculating a utility function

The flaw in that logic

A silly example of CLT

Epistemic status: I am not a historian or a psychologist. I am just a parent who read a few books. This is less formal than most lesswrong posts.

Disclaimer

The Chart

Is Judging Beneficial?

Defining Judgment

Intro

Goal