All of Darkar Dengeno's Comments + Replies

Devising means of measurement will be left as an exercise to the reader, however I recommend that serious thought and effort be given to such testing.

I expect this is where much of the challenge and nuance of this technique lies. A few questions come to mind when I try this. How do you handle terminal vs instrumental value? How do you handle various kinds of uncertainty? (expected value calculations can require your whole world-model if you don't limit scope!)

Do you have any specific examples of how you perform this measurement on a real decision?

2SilverFlame
I assign weights to terminal and instrumental value differently, with instrumental value growing higher for steps that are less removed from producing terminal value and/or for steps that won't easily backslide/revert without maintenance. As far as uncertainty goes, my general formula is to focus upon keeping plans composed of "sure bet" steps if the risk of failure is high, but I'll allow less surefire steps to be attempted if there is more wiggle room in play. This sometimes results in plans that are overly circuitous, but resistant to common points of failure. The success rate of a step is calculated from my relevant experience and practice levels, as well as awareness of any relevant environmental factors. The actual weights were developed through iteration, and are likely specific to my framework. Here's a real example of a decision calculation, as requested: Scenario: I'm driving home from work, and need to pick which restaurant to get dinner from. Value Categories (a sampling): * Existing Desires: Is there anything I'm already in the mood for, or conversely something I'm not in the mood for? * Diminishing Returns: Have I chosen one or more of the options too recently, or has it been a while since I chose one of the options? * Travel Distance: Is it a short or long diversion from my route home to reach the restaurant(s)? * Price Tag: How pricey or cheap are the food options? I don't enjoy driving much, so Travel Distance is usually the highest-ranked Value Category, thoroughly eliminating food options that are too much of a deviation from my route. Next is Existing Desires, then Diminishing Returns, which let me pursue my desires and avoid getting overexposed to things. My finances are generally in a state where Price Tag doesn't make much difference on location selection, but it will play a more noticeable role when it comes time to figure out my order.

Agreed on both counts, yeah. I still don't think this is actually evidence against the possibility of the political nexus shifting away from social justice (in fact, I would count it as evidence we're near peak intensity) and I still think there is a lot of value to trying to understand and capture interesting insights from the social justice movement, but I don't think a real concerted effort do do this is possible until things relax a bit.

If someone can think of reasonable ways to verify whether the cultural toxicity of the SJ fight has &a... (read more)

Given that politics is problematic it's worthwhile to discourage people from posting low quality political posts on LessWrong

I did not say "low quality" and I do not think this post is low quality. I think it is of middling quality, around what I would expect an average LessWrong member to be capable of writing. It is less specific than I would like and I think overreaches in the amount the key insight is able to explain but there is a key insight. One I found useful and novel and well constructed.

Further, while it would be very bad to have ... (read more)

All math, world languages, and all visual and performing arts courses should have an ethnic studies equivalent.

Ah, I think you're right. It seems like they want an "ethnic studies" version of everything and students have to take at least one ethnic studies course per year. I'm not a huge fan of that and it seems like it is taking some well-deserved criticism.

Looking at this presentation through the lens of the original post, it seems like what the Ethnic Studies Board is trying to do is create safe spaces and reduce perceived harms agai... (read more)

4at_the_zoo
FYI, there is virtually no criticism within the city / school district itself, because (1) it's too progressive / left-leaning and (2) anyone who does offer criticism gets labeled as "racist" or "white supremacist", even if the critic isn't white. (Look up "internalized oppression" if you're not already familiar.) That's part of it, but it's also about turning students (and not just minorities) into social justice activists. See this quote from page 31 of the presentation: Combine this with other forms of political correctness (e.g., it's taboo to even talk about "culture" as a factor in educational disparities; any differences in educational outcomes must be the result of racism/oppression) and it's hard not to be concerned about the outcome of this educational philosophy and to see certain worrying historical parallels. BTW, I don't know if it's a good idea to get into a big object-level discussion about this here. Initially I just wanted to offer some clear-cut evidence to correct your belief that "bring SJ into all the sub­ject at school" is unlikely. Hopefully that's settled at this point?

Right, so, a few things:

The curriculum isn't mandatory

There is a huge difference in my mind between forcing teachers to adopt a specific curriculum with political implications and providing them the resources to include political topics as they see fit.

I'll admit, looking over the framework itself feels pretty icky. There are a few things I like about it, though.

SWBAT identify ancient mathematicians and their contributions to mathematics

I've long felt that more history of mathematics should be included in math curriculum (for much the same r... (read more)

2ChristianKl
Christian-advocacy groups always have very little influence on what happens within education departments in universities. Deconstructionist thought on the other hand has a lot of influence within those departments. It would be a big problem for the career of a professor in an education department to argue that more creationism has to be taught in science classes. On the other hand today a professor in an education department who would argue that there are only two genders would get massive problems.
7ChristianKl
Reasonable-if-flawed posts about political issues have no place on LessWrong. Given that politics is problematic it's worthwhile to discourage people from posting low quality political posts on LessWrong and there's nothing shameful about discouraging such posts. The behavior of discouraging has little to do with outgroup toleration.
6at_the_zoo
I believe this is a mis-reporting, or talking about part of the curriculum. See pages 27 and 28 of this presentation:
It might be that nobody gets a degree in education without professing allegiance to SJ and those teachers then go to bring SJ into all the subject at school.

This sounds unlikely, uncharitable, and frankly more than a little conspiratorial. I'm not even sure if this is something most social justice advocates would even want.

What comes next might be a version that's even more radical.

I would not consider this an actual paradigm shift in the way the atheism->SJ shift occurred and I do not think it will actually happen.

My model of culture wars is ... (read more)

1ChristianKl
If you take the outside view there are plenty of cultural conflicts that end very bloody. From the outside view it's possible that a social force gets weaker but it's also possible that it gets stronger and goes on to project more power. New Atheism vs. fundamentalist religion isn't even a good comparison because neither of those camps had a lot of institutions behind them.
7at_the_zoo
It's already happening IRL. See this Reason article:
Where do we go from here? I’m not sure. The socialist wing of the Democratic Party seems to be working off a model kind of like this, but hoping to change the hamartiology from race/gender to class. Maybe they’ll succeed, and one day talking too much about racism will seem as out-of-touch as talking too much about atheism does now; maybe the rise of terms like “woke capitalism” is already part of this process.

This is what I was referencing, I think it is unlikely social justice will remain the political center it has been for th... (read more)

8ChristianKl
What comes next might be a version that's even more radical. It might be that nobody gets a degree in education without professing allegiance to SJ and those teachers then go to bring SJ into all the subject at school. SJ is more then an online phenomena. It's also a fight for the control of various institutions and I see little reason that the people you won power will suddenly let it go.

I'd like to thank you for writing this up. I have a strong intuition that many of the ideas central to social justice would work well alongside the rationalist movement if it were less politically charged. Maybe if Scott Alexander's thesis about New Atheism transforming into Social Justice is correct (and the corollary that a new hamartiology will show up soon and take its place) then it is plausible social justice ideology will become less toxic and more amenable to an approach at the object-level (which is where I think we excel).

I am not sure ... (read more)

5ChristianKl
I don't think anything about Scott's thesis indicates that it's easy for Social Justice to be replaced. That movement has social dynamics that drive people to take more extreme positions and not express dissent that don't exist in the same way in New Atheism.

It was, as I admitted, a mistake. I was being inexact as it was not critical for my central point, if it was I would have looked it up, failed to find it, and adjusted my approach (or more likely, left out IQ altogether). I'm unsure what continuing to belabor this accomplishes aside from chastising me for insufficiently respecting numbers.

2ChristianKl
You admitted a mistake but it wasn't the mistake for which I was criticizing you. I don't have a problem with people misremembering numbers. This prompted me to explain my criticism.

Amusingly, the article you linked redirected to a different article which seems to reinforce your first point and I think helped clarify for me the exact dynamics of the situation. The author defends Dr. Littman's paper on what she terms 'rapid-onset gender dysphoria' against the heavy backlash it received (mostly on twitter, it seems) and especially Harvard's response to that backlash.

I find it difficult to imagine that healthy academic discourse could take place in an environment that conflict-heavy. Critically, this does not require ... (read more)

8ChristianKl
No, I lost it because it was a LessWrong meetup and there are such discussions on LessWrong (and our meetup.com page says SSC/LW, so SSC association was also a problem). The problem was not that the topics might be discussed on the meetup with was more applied rationality focused. The problem was one of association, not one of meetup content. We could have held the meetup if we wouldn't link from any LW or SSC branded page and called it 'rationality meetup'. The 'Darwinian Gender Studies' facebook group seems one place worth mentioning. TheMotte was founded to have a place where discussion could be happen with less collateral damage. There might still be a risk for any insider to participate in them with their public identity attached. Private discussions behind closed doors would be less risky.
5Zack_M_Davis
Perhaps /r/TheMotte?! (Backstory.)

This is a stronger case than the one Anderson made, I think, and it is one I take seriously (which is why I plan to approach this problem by reading material first to see what the landscape is actually like).

Any field that has dogma's that aren't allowed to be publicly debated has a problem with the kind of open discussion we are having here.

I agree with this statement, but the question is whether modern gender studies is actually such a field. Trying to make bold claims about the quality of academic discussion in a field neither I nor my convers... (read more)

We lost a room in which we held LW meetups in Berlin because LW discusses topics that shouldn't be discussed. The discussion in itself is 'unsafe' regardless of how you discuss or what conclusions are reached.

That's norms for using a meeting room. When it comes to norms that the gender studies community expects there own members to follow, a person who has a reputational stake in the community has a lot more to lose from violating norms in that way.

This isn't even a question of the academic quality of their discourse. a/atheism doe... (read more)

I agree, that was a confused point for me to make that didn't advance my main argument. The initial claim Anderson made was that the field of gender studies advocated total social determination of all observed differences between genders, I argued that this was not the case and provided an instance of a gender communications researcher discussing the biological influences on gendered behavior.

The point about IQ was a half remembered factoid from a metastudy I read a while back and I've been unable to find subsequently so it's likely misremembered. It's irrelevant to the discussion though, I think.

1ChristianKl
Exactly 50-50 would be very surprising result for a meta-study. "50% heritable" has an exactness that "around half heritable" doesn't have. Treating both of those the same way is what I would expect from people who don't respect actual numbers.
I'm afraid that's the case.

Alright, a different angle then. If we did find some academic feminists or gender studies researchers who were willing to engage in good faith, serious discussion without trying to be activist or throwing around accusations of -isms or -phobics, would you object to their presence in the community? The hostility you've shown towards an entire field is something I find deeply concerning.

Perhaps you and I just have fundamentally different approaches towards outgroups since I honestly cannot think of a single group I w... (read more)

4Stuart Anderson

I contest that those are not actually claims made by sociologists. Or if they are, they are minority opinions (in which case there would be other sociologists debunking them).

As a test, if you provide links to sociologists (or academic feminists/gender studies researchers) making each of those claims I will try to find others within the same field arguing against them.

9Stuart Anderson
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Are you claiming that none of the differences between men and women are cultural? To me, that seems as obviously incorrect as saying all of them are. Not to go all 'fallacy of the grey' here but this really does seem to be an issue where both sides are a major influence. IQ is around 50% heritable, the other 50% also matters, though.

My view is that if we accept both biological and cultural influences on behavior then behavioral geneticists, neurologists, evolutionary psychologists, etc. focus their effort on the biological side and sociologists a... (read more)

IQ is around 50% heritable, the other 50% also matters, though.

This sounds like it's written by a person who's not quite clear what X percent heritable means. Apart from that making up numbers like this for rhetorical purposes and treating them as if they are factual is bad form.

The right answer to the nature vs. nature debate isn't it's 50-50 but: That's a bad question and a bad frame for understanding reality.

Instead of debating nature vs. nature one should look at the empirical findings we have and build up a view on the world based on them.

5Stuart Anderson
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the second you step into the sociology department you're not only expected to ignore that, you're expected to deny it and attribute it to *oppression* without a single shred of supporting evidence.

To be perfectly honest, I've never stepped into a sociology department except to take classes that happened to be scheduled in the sociology building. The closest I've studied to sociology or gender studies in a formal setting was an introductory folklore course.

That being said, your statement sounds concerningly weakmanish, like the sort of c... (read more)

2Stuart Anderson
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I understand and to largely share your concerns. Theoretically, there's a distinction between academic and activist gender studies and while the latter probably has almost nothing to offer and would likely just cause toxicity even if acting in good faith the former might have more value. I am not confident about the degree to which this distinction between academic study and activist action exists in actual fact, though.

>This is a discipline that can only exist by the deliberate denial of the medical and psychological fields and all the reproducibl... (read more)

Any reasonable scholar who's in gender studies faces a high reputational risk if they would debate on LessWrong in a reasonable way about their field. Any field that has dogma's that aren't allowed to be publicly debated has a problem with the kind of open discussion we are having here.

Again, I'm not super confident in this and I think there is a decent chance that this will wind up being pointless but it still seems worth spending a little time investigating.

The question is not just whether it's pointless but about whether it's potentially harmful.

1Stuart Anderson
Answer by Darkar Dengeno50

I'd make an argument for 'soft-sciences' and humanities. Philosophy, cultural anthropology, history, political science, sociology, literature, and maybe even gender studies. Computer science, mathematics, economics, and other STEM-heavy fields are already pretty well represented within the current LW community.

The focus on group rationality and developing a thriving community seems like it could benefit from the expertise these fields bring to the table. This might also reduce the amount of 'reinventing the wheel' that goes on (whi... (read more)

Perhaps we need a list of inadequate equilibria. I've thought before it could be interesting to have some curated set of (ideally well-researched and discussed) 'hey this thing is dumb'. Things like higher education cost disease, paywalled scientific journals, first-past-the-post voting in democratic elections, etc. Even if we don't have coherent solutions yet, it would be good to be able to easily see the scope.

2Yoav Ravid
Great idea! it deserves its own post

Thank you! That's exactly what I was looking for! They even have an open API.

Out of curiosity, is there any tool to facilitate personal predictions? When I've tried to do this in the past (using a Google Sheet) I tend to forget to score my predictions. I did some basic searching for a short-term prediction tracker (ideally something that would let you mark the outcome of a prediction and then calculate your calibration over time) and couldn't find anything. This seems like the sort of thing that could be languishing in someone's Github.

Alternatively, if this tool doesn't already exist, should it?

7[anonymous]
I like PredictionBook.com for this sort of thing. You make predictions with confidences and then set a date on which they'll be ready to be judged. By default, predictions you make are public, but you can also easily make private predictions.
Answer by Darkar Dengeno130

One thing you might look at is the Brier Score, particularly the 3-component decomposition.

Score = Reliability - Resolution + Uncertainty

The nice thing about this decomposition is that it gives you more information than a single score. The uncertainty is a sort of 'difficulty' score, it doesn't take predictions into account and is minimized when the same outcome occurs each time.

The resolution tells you how much information each prediction gives. For an event that occurs half of the time you could predict 0.5 probability for everything but i... (read more)

1mako yass
Doesn't Indicate that this is using histogram buckets? I'm trying to say I'm looking for methods that avoid grouping probabilities into an arbitrary (chosen by the analyst) number of categories. For instance.. in the (possibly straw) histogram method that I discussed in the question, if a predictor makes a lot of 0.97 bets and no corresponding 0.93 bets, their [0.9 1] category will be called slightly pessimistic about its predictions even if those forecasts came true exactly 0.97 of the time, I wouldn't describe anything in that genre as exact, even if it is the best we have.

I think you might be overlooking the widespread cultural effects of Christian memes. When I had a similar discussion with a friend I argued "imagine a society in which the 12 Virtues had the place the 10 Commandments (or maybe the Beatitudes) do in ours".

Not everyone or even most people actually _follow_ the 10 Commandments and it is debatable whether Christians follow them any more frequently than non-Christians but if you compare a ours to a society that had basically _never heard_ of the 10 Commandments I think it is hard to imagine that othe... (read more)