My own timelines shortened with the maturation of inference scaling, as previous to this we projected progress as a result of training continuing to scale plus an uncertainty about whether and how soon we'd see other algorithmic or scaffolding improvements. But now here we are with clear impacts from inference scaling, and that's worth an update.
I agree with most of your analysis in deployment overhang, except I'd eyeball the relative scale of training compute usage to inference compute usage as implying that we could still see speed as a major ... (read more)
Great post!
My own timelines shortened with the maturation of inference scaling, as previous to this we projected progress as a result of training continuing to scale plus an uncertainty about whether and how soon we'd see other algorithmic or scaffolding improvements. But now here we are with clear impacts from inference scaling, and that's worth an update.
I agree with most of your analysis in deployment overhang, except I'd eyeball the relative scale of training compute usage to inference compute usage as implying that we could still see speed as a major ... (read more)