David Glidden
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David Glidden has not written any posts yet.
David Glidden has not written any posts yet.
Join us at Union Pub, the "political sports bar", on Thursday, September 26th at 6pm for the inaugural Washington, DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup!
Expect a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting (Cowboys @ Giants should be on the TVs), or anything else relating to predicting the future.
We've got a private space in the back of Union Pub to facilitate good conversation. Look for the sign for the meetup. Note: due to this month's venue, this event is 21+. We're hoping to switch it up to somewhere more friendly to students under 21 in future months!
Who are we? We are... (read more)
One thing I don't see mentioned here is PredictIt's advertising approach can bias markets. I haven't done much research into this myself, but a top PredictIt trader mentions in this post that PredictIt advertised on Breitbart during the 2016 election, bringing in lots of money from die-hard Trump supporters: https://politicalpredictionmarkets.com/blog/
Counter-argument: Other prediction markets (that presumably are not mimicking PredictIt's advertising approach) also had similar odds for the 2020 election that were quite far from 538.