All of davidgasquez's Comments + Replies

Did a quick search on the episode transcript and couldn't find it.

I'll probably re-listen it though! That said, would you be able to confirm this is the episode by quickly taking a look at the conversation transcript? I'd love to dig deeper if that's not the episode!

2Henrik Karlsson
I tried searching too, but couldn't find it. I can't remember his wording exactly. I do have that episode downloaded to my mp3-player though, so it seems likely. If I haven't hallucinated it all.

I've heard that interview but I'm having some issues finding it back. Would you mind sharing a link to the Patrick Collison interview?

2Henrik Karlsson
I didn't put a link in because I wasn't sure. My best guess is this one.

Nice resource! It reminds me about the Chapter 3 of Adventures in Cognitive Biases.

Is there anything similar to The Credence Calibration Game but works online and has some recent facts?

It would be cool to be able to replay some closed Metaculus questions and see how well would you do against that!

2Neel Nanda
The Clearer Thinking Calibrate Your Judgement tool seems worth checking out. https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/2019/10/16/practice-making-accurate-predictions-with-our-new-tool

Thanks for sharing Dagon, you made me realize a couple of things! I never thought about EMH applying in this situation and that some adequate equilibriums might not be reachable without a very large change.

I still think some of the examples shared by others might be still partially useful to think about when deciding who to vote or discussing issues with other people.