All of Despard's Comments + Replies

Despard00

Yes indeed. I thought people here, especially those connected to CFAR, might find it interesting. Critical thinking is only one part of rationality training of course, but its is a very useful one.

Despard00

I can be, though I'll want to be heading to Seattle around that time. No restrictions on travel really except I'd like to be in LA within two weeks of New Year.

Despard00

I'll be in Vancouver for New Year and shortly afterwards - any meetups planned for that time?

0[anonymous]
Hopefully. Will you be around for the weekend after new years?
Despard120

I actually know one of the guys working on it - I could ask him to come over here if you like.

0[anonymous]
It looks like we only have one question - still I think a lot of people (me included) would like to see it answered. Would you mind contacting your friend?
3[anonymous]
This seems like a great idea - if we put together a concrete list of questions to ask, it could be worth his time to come over. If anyone wants to ask any questions, leave a comment and maybe we can get some direct answers. (But make sure your question isn't in the AmA, first!)
Despard00

Note for following meetups - I'll be in Seattle in early January, would be good to meet some of you!

0jsalvatier
Awesome! We look forward to meeting you :). Join the mailing list
Despard00

Not sure for this trip; I'm mostly going West from Detroit, and I'll be back in the States (to NYC) next year but probably not heading to DC. All plans can change however!

Despard20

Nice! I'm actually doing something similar in December, bussing though various cities in the States (thread at http://lesswrong.com/lw/e9t/the_wandering_rationalist/) before going, mildly ironically, to Australia. I actually think I'm going to be in Austin around the same time as you, though not for as long. I'll be reposting my message with dates shortly.

3Maelin
If you happen to be in Melbourne while you're in Australia, see if you can come to one of our twice-per-month regular meetups!
1shokwave
Indeed you are! (Your post was the inspiration+reminder for this post, actually). We should try to run into each other somewhere in Austin.
Despard60

It's not necessary to have them completely performed and controlled by a third party - but the idea is if you want to do a drug trial, you sign up with an independent register saying which drug you're testing and what your methodology is. Then when the trial is done, you must report your results publicly.

That stops companies hiding negative trials and only publishing positive ones. It doesn't stop the data being manipulated, but that's another problem.

Despard20

Nice article. Much of psychology suffers from the failure to replicate experiments, for various reasons like funding, time pressure, and difficulties in obtaining the population required. I've worked in sensorimotor control for several years and recently some researchers have come up with the idea of putting together a database of studies on perturbations during reaching (which is a very widely used paradigm) because they can so often be divergent due to tiny changes in the experiments.

I'd love to see more of this kind of thing in psychology in general, ju... (read more)

0GeraldMonroe
How would registry of the trials work? When I heard a lecture on this subject (there is pretty damning statistical evidence that drug trials are always slanted towards the company paying for the trials) the only viable proposal I heard discussed was to have the testing completely performed and controlled by an unbiased third party. (probably the government)
Despard10

I will hopefully be in New Zealand in January, just passing through. Keep me informed!

0Slackson
Awesome, if something gets going I'll let you know.
Despard10

Good catch. Just chatting to the editor to try to get this fixed - apparently there's a problem with the edit feature on issuu.

ETA: unfortunately it can't be changed. It can be re-uploaded but then they'd lose the view stats.

Despard30

I guess it does a little - the piece was edited slightly from my original submission. I don't think it sounds all that strange, though I'm almost certainly biased on that front...

Despard60

That's actually a really interesting thought. I am white and male and straight and am very aware of my privilege, and also am very interested in heuristics and biases and how they are part of our thought patterns. I consider myself very much a feminist, and also a realist in terms of how people actually work compared with how people would like each other to work. I might brood on this for a bit and write about it.

4[anonymous]
This could be something that's kicked around in Discussions for a while perhaps? Related, I'd like to see defensiveness discussed through the lens of cognitive bias. It has wide impact; it can be improved; improving it likewise has wide impact on one's life. I think it's one of those meta-levels of improvement where upgrades significantly affect our ability to upgrade many other things.
Despard00

That's not a bad idea - except I have a friend in Lansing, MI I said I'd look up on the way. If I do too many zig-zags it will raise hell with my schedule, and I've spent a lot of time on the East Coast fairly recently. Still... I'll think about it.

Despard20

Hello,

Not sure if any SLCers have seen this thread:

http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/e9t/the_wandering_rationalist/

...but I'll be travelling through SLC sometime in December and it would be great to meet some of you if you're planning another meetup around that time. Offers of hanging out and accommodation gratefully received!

3hamnox
We'd love to have you! We're doing meetups every third Saturday, though if you can keep in touch and let us know when you'll be around we can certainly make time to meet as you pass through.
Despard20

As I recall from my readings on amnesia, having no conscious recollection of events but nevertheless having an unconscious preference (or lack of preference) is fairly common. Essentially patients have impaired declarative (explicit) memory but some spared implicit perceptual and motor memory. So the fictional example of Sammy Jenkis is actually quite reality-based.

What needs to be distinguished in this scenario is whether Omega is only wiping your declarative memory or if he's also going in and getting rid of your implicit memory as well, which takes care of lower-level responses to stimuli that might otherwise cause problems after the event.

2palladias
Having no conscious experience of events but having an unconscious something can also occur. This is what happens to the severed corpus callosum patients when you show them two images or words so that each is only in the field of vision of one eye. They only report seeing one, but the 'unseen' image can color their interpretation of the 'seen' one. For example, if I show your talking half the word "cleave" and put a picture of two people hugging in the second, unseen slot, you're more likely to define "cleave" as "joining" than you would be if the second picture was of a knife cutting fruit.
Despard30

I've done Amtrak before and I quite liked it. What I'm wavering on is whether to buy the $450 30-day bus pass which allows me unlimited travel for that period or be a bit riskier and hope I'll find enough rides to get me across for cheaper. I need to sit down and do the research and the maths really.

I can rent a car for sure (I'm 31) but I haven't driven in ten years and considering it'll be December I'm not confident in my driving ability in bad weather conditions...

1Vaniver
Interestingly, there are two ways to do this and I'm not sure which is better. The first is estimating a probability that you'll be able to find a ride across any particular arc, and then calculating the cost (and stopping and buying the pass if it's more than $450/(1-p)). The second is calculating the cost C, and then asking "is p>(C-$450)/C?" (Both assuming risk neutrality.) If Ridejoy publishes any numbers about success rates, then the first is probably the better choice, but if you're guessing, it might be psychologically easier to do the second (though it also puts you at risk for anchoring). Wise choice!
Despard00

Don't see why I wouldn't be able to stop a night! It's going in the right direction at least.

Despard00

No worries. I'm definitely interested in seeing nice things as opposed to just going places as quickly as possible, depending of course on how my travel time is going. I need to figure out what I'm actually going to do for Christmas - hopefully some friends of mine on the West Coast will take me in and feed me...

1David_Allen
If you need a place to stay in Boise I might also be able to help with that.
Despard00

Well, it seems fairly close to Des Moines, and I don't know anyone there... it's just on my way to OK at this point. I'll bear it in mind!

Despard00

I'll definitely look into that.

Despard00

I know very little about what the most optimal way to get from place to place is in the US. Since I don't have a car, I figured big highways would be the way to do it, either by bus or by grabbing rides. But of course I'm happy to take advice.

I've also heard Austin is fun. I wasn't really planning on doing Texas and Austin's pretty far out of my way, but I'll think on it.

0Vaniver
My favorite way to cross the US, especially if you're not in a hurry, is by Amtrak train, though I don't have too much experience with buses (Amtrak or otherwise; I've taken one Amtrak bus and no Greyhound buses). Train tickets tend to be cost-competitive with bus tickets, except that the routes are way more limited. (Their train route map is here, and so you can see that going from Minneapolis to Oklahoma City requires going east then south then west then north, rather than just south, but you may end up having to do similar things on buses.) If you're old enough, renting a car might be a good option, especially if you want to do a lot of touristy stuff.
Despard10

I was thinking of doing that anyway, but I wanted to have a general post up early to prime people that I'll be travelling through. It would also be fun to see if I could pop from meetup to meetup and maybe post a cross-country review of them. Got a few months to plan it more carefully anyway.

Despard00

Thanks - it's a possibility. I'd love to see China. I do want to try to make Korea and Japan this trip as well.

Despard20

Awesome, thanks! Madison's actually somewhere I need a place to stay; I have friends in Chicago and Minneapolis already, for example. Good to know you're there, I've heard Madison's a lot of fun.

2orthonormal
It is! Glad you'll be stopping by.
Despard00

Fixed - thanks for that!

Despard00

Very useful information and incredibly relevant for, among other things, rationality testing. I have some experience with these kinds of effects from my research on motor control, but it's good to keep them in the forefront of one's mind when designing studies.

Despard20

I'm not sure growth is necessarily a thing LW needs per se, as some of the other commenters have pointed out. But I do think there is scope for improving the landing page and decreasing the bounce rate of people we want to be here. That last is crucial.

In my case, I still only have a handful of comments due to not having much time to post at the moment, but I got here through HPMOR and read the Sequences... and still had problems sticking around to post anything as I was somewhat underwhelmed by the design and ease of navigation. I think things can definitely be made a little more user-friendly without ruining the community.

Despard00

So I'm here a couple more days - still up for grabbing a pint?

Despard20

I'm interested in this - my PhD and postdoc work has all been in motor control, which is of course very much tied up with perception and action. I'm less interested in motor control now and more interested in beliefs, but this analysis demonstrates that the two systems are very much intertwined. You need to have beliefs about the world, which come from perception, before you can generate a useful motor command, for example.

Only thing I'd take issue with is that linking this process solely to reinforcement learning is a little simplistic. Motor learning is ... (read more)

1tgb
When commenting, click the "Show help button" on the bottom right of the text box to see the commnts. Block quotes are lines starting with >
Despard30

This already happens in some cases. PLoS One, for example, publishes open-access entirely online and invites community criticism:

http://www.plosone.org/static/information.action

(Sorry, I've yet to figure out how to link things and suchlike; can HTML be used here?)

One issue with just allowing anyone to comment on a paper though is a high proportion of misinformed or ignorant people who can hijack the discussion. LW gets round this very well with its judicious gardening, and other sites do this too, so perhaps it's not as big an issue as I'm making it out to be. Unmoderated comment forums tend to turn into slimepits though.

Despard10

I generally agree. I have an aversion to just reading abstracts because it doesn't let you get at the nitty-gritty of how exactly the studies were performed, but it's way better than just reading the news reports - and not everyone has full-text access to studies anyway.

Despard00

It's definitely a good idea to be skeptical. There is definitely some badly-designed research out there, and some that shows less than it claims to. The best way to deal with that is to read the original papers and make sure the studies were adequately performed, although this doesn't entirely solve the issue (see: publication bias).

0printing-spoon
The Economist recently had an article about how sitting in wobbly furniture makes people crave "emotional stability." They also mention a study finding that people sitting in chairs that lean to the left reported more liberal opinions. http://www.economist.com/node/21558553 As far as I can tell they are completely serious.
8Cogitus_Maximus
It would be really nice if studies had a sort of thoroughness check list at the top of the paper next to the abstract clearly stating sample size, sampling process, number of peer reviewers, study methodology(double-blind, panel etc), and any other relevant information to the papers validity. If some sort of crude standardization could even occur within specific fields it would make cross-study comparison much easier. Or what if papers could be published online in a format inviting public criticism and community concerns would be forced to be answered to by authors.
5VincentYu
And even just reading the abstracts is already a huge step forward for epistemic hygiene because science reporting and journalism can be so damn shoddy (besides, I regularly find that the abstracts are easier to read and understand than their popularizations).
Despard270

Hello everyone,

Thought it was about time to do one of these since I've made a couple of comments!

My name's Carl. I've been interested in science and why people believe the strange things they believe for many years. I was raised Catholic but came to the conclusion around the age of ten that it was all a bit silly really, and as yet I have found no evidence that would cause me to update away from that.

I studied physics as an undergrad and switched to experimental psychology for my PhD, being more interested at that point in how people work than how the univ... (read more)

Despard10

Great stuff - I just attended the June minicamp. I'm pretty sure you'll love it. I look forward to meeting and picking your brains about it!

Despard20

Fashion update: many people have complimented me on how good I'm looking!

This last couple of weeks I've started using RememberTheMilk to manage my tasks a bit better. It's coming along. I'm probably not using it to its full potential yet but I'm actually GTD so that's a start.

I've also experimented with Pomodoro to increase productivity; the couple of times I used it it seems to work. More data required.

Despard20

I'll be in town August 5th-11th for the Fringe - any chance of a meetup during that time?

0scaphandre
Cool - I am away at the LW July minicamp in California, but I think I get back in Edinburgh around the 5th August. I would be up for a meetup then.
1sark
No problem. I'm here for the entire summer. You may choose to contact myself closer to time and we'll organize a meetup then.
Despard200

That's a beautiful site! And looks like all the links work.

I have very few criticisms. First there is a tiny use of jargon words like 'win' in a context they're not normally used in, but I think it's probably ok, the context is fairly self-explanatory. Though I might be getting used to the jargon words by now, so I'll inevitably be biased.

Second I think the causal model graphic on the front page can be improved: I think you need to change 'perfect reasoning' and 'perfect decisionmaking' to 'improved reasoning' and 'improved decision-making'. No reasoning o... (read more)

5Viliam_Bur
I was going to write the same thing, though my suggestion would be "Rational reasoning / decisionmaking". Well, maybe repeating the same word everywhere is not a good idea. Therefore, another suggestion: "Better reasoning / decisionmaking".
Despard30

Good point and good call. My plan is to arrange some clothes shopping time with friends when I get back to Kingston. I rather suspect they will be shocked when I ask them to accompany me. :)

I realised last night that I spent about 3 hours clothes shopping yesterday, without getting anxious once. It's much easier when you think of it as simply a problem to be solved...

Despard110

Having just attended the June minicamp and having some time to kill in the Bay Area, I'm spending this afternoon on Haight hacking my fashion. So far my clothes choices have elicited a compliment on the fit from the clothing store staff at least, so I think that's a positive step.

I'm glad you're focusing on improving your appearance, but be careful. If they think you're going to be a one-time customer (Which is likely, since you don't live here. Yes, people can tell.), the staff have a massive incentive to say you look good. Bring a friend if you want an honest evaluation.

Despard250

Great post - I definitely agree with some of your points. I'm very new to LW and haven't even written an introductory post yet, but I'm very impressed with what I've seen overall. I am even flying out to San Francisco tomorrow to discuss joining the newly-renamed CFAR. My background is entirely academic, as I have a PhD in experimental psychology and I'm interested in formalising some of the rationality measures CFAR is looking at. I even had a brief email exchange with Anna Salamon about the usefulness and validity of academic publications.

Here's my take ... (read more)

Despard20

There's a spelling error on the first section of the Research page:

"If you’re new to the entire topic, see the 5-page Reducing Long-Term Catastrohpic Risks from Artificial Intelligence."

It should be Catastrophic.

1lukeprog
Fixed.