LESSWRONG
LW

All of DittoDevolved's Comments + Replies

Burch's Law
DittoDevolved00

In the UK it's tax free, anyway.

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0entirelyuseless
Ok. Not in the USA.
Burch's Law
DittoDevolved00

Never a good idea. Unless you win. Ask the recipient of $100m tax-free whether or not it was a good idea to buy a ticket.

I don't buy lottery tickets, but as much as the chance is so ridiculously small that you might as well burn the ticket as soon as you buy it, that doesn't stop people from winning.

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1entirelyuseless
Lottery income is most definitely taxed, although this likely makes little difference to your point.
The Proper Use of Humility
DittoDevolved00

Wouldn't having three deities instead of one be more complex by their interactions with one another? Even if they existed on separate planes of existence, they would have to all be exerting some kind of influence for them to be gods, no? And in their shared application of influence, would they not be interacting?

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2see
The interactions of three people is more complex than the interactions of one person with himself. But the theory that my house contains three different residents still explains observations of my house much more simply than if you start with the assumption there's only one resident. You accordingly cannot actually use Occam's Razor to disfavor the theory that my house has three residents simply because the interactions of three people with each other are more complex than the interactions of one person with himself. Similarly, adding a cat to the three persons hypothesis actually improves the explanatory power of the model, even though you now have three sets of human-cat interactions added to the model; rejecting the cat on the basis of Occam's Razor is also a failure. Is a trinity more complex than a unitary godhead? In itself, sure. But if you're trying to do something as notoriously convoluted as, say, theodicy, the question is, does the trinity provide extra explanatory power that reduces the overall complications? And I strongly doubt anyone is both knowledgeable enough about theodicy and sufficiently rational and unbiased on the unity/trinity question to give a trustworthy answer on the question of which is the actual lesser hypothesis there. Especially since the obvious least hypothesis in theodicy is that there is no God at all and thus nothing to explain. If you're going to claim that a unitary godhead is favored by Occam's Razor over a trinity, you actually need, among other things, a whole unitary-godhead theodicy. But if you actually worked one out, in order to have a rational opinion on the relative viability of the unitary and trinity theories, I'm going to wonder about your underlying rationality, given you wasted so much time on theodicy.
Conservation of Expected Evidence
DittoDevolved00

Hi, new here.

I was wondering if I've interpreted this correctly:

'For a true Bayesian, it is impossible to seek evidence that confirms a theory. There is no possible plan you can devise, no clever strategy, no cunning device, by which you can legitimately expect your confidence in a fixed proposition to be higher (on average) than before. You can only ever seek evidence to test a theory, not to confirm it.'

Does this mean that it is impossible to prove the truth of a theory? Because the only evidence that can exist is evidence that falsifies the theory, or... (read more)

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0nshepperd
The important part of the sentence here is seek. The isn't about falsificationism, but the fact that no experiment you can do can confirm a theory without having some chance of falsifying it too. So any observation can only provide evidence for a hypothesis if a different outcome could have provided the opposite evidence. For instance, suppose that you flip a coin. You can seek to test the theory that the result was HEADS, by simply looking at the coin with your eyes. There's a 50% chance that the outcome of this test would be "you see the HEADS side", confirming your theory (p(HEADS | you see HEADS) ~ 1). But this only works because there's also a 50% chance that the outcome of the test would have shown the result to be TAILS, falsifying your theory (P(HEADS | you see TAILS) ~ 0). And in fact there's no way to measure the coin so that one outcome would be evidence in favour of HEADS (P(HEADS | measurement) > 0.5), without the opposite result being evidence against HEADS (P(HEADS | ¬measurement) < 0.5).
1lucidfox
It is correct that we can never find enough evidence to make our certainty of a theory to be exactly 1 (though we can get it very close to 1). If we were absolutely certain in a theory, then no amount of counterevidence, no matter how damning, could ever change our mind.
Rationality Quotes September–December 2016
DittoDevolved30

I think I understand. The facts should be told because no one would really take the facts at face value, and not draw any conclusions from them. Using the original example, if they say 'they are going to cut off his head' then whoever hears the message will be allowed to work out for themselves whether or not the 'debt to society' was paid. But if they tell us from the start how to think about the events, then we are prejudiced, or at least an attempt has been made to prejudice us.

In this specific example of prison/execution, we already think that the just... (read more)

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