All of Doug_S.2's Comments + Replies

My father is a college professor and he's going to be teaching an introduction to engineering course to future electrical engineering students. He's planning on making the students learn basic electromagnetic theory by forcing them to try to perform their own experiments with a pile of stuff that would have existed around 1900 or so.

"Today's assignment: In 1820, Hans Christian Ørsted discovered a relationship between electricity and magnetism. Replicate his experiment and demonstrate that a relationship exists."

Hopefully, some student will eventu... (read more)

This is interesting and somewhat relevant to the topic of this blog:

http://www.aft.org/pubs-reports/american_educator/issues/summer07/Crit_Thinking.pdf

Doug_S.23-2

I agree; there may very well be the rare innately evil person, but promoting or implementing an ideology that is based on false premises that turns out to have evil consequences does not require "innate" evil. The 9/11 hijackers might very well be described as "neurologically intact people with beliefs that have utterly destroyed their sanity" but, if the beliefs they had about the state of the world were actually true (which they weren't!) then many value systems would endorse their actions.

If there were a diety that condemns unbelieve... (read more)

Does anyone have a book they can recommend that explains the actual math of quantum mechanics? Once I actually see the equations, things always start making sense to me. For example, my introductory modern physics course talked about the Schroedinger equation and had an optional section on operators and wave functions. Having suffered through Fourier analysis in my electrical engineering courses, the way the Heisenberg uncertainty principle comes from the application of transformations to wave functions made a kind of intuitive sense. I know an awful lot o... (read more)

1waveman
You could try "The structure and interpretation of quantum mechanics" by R I G Hughes or "The Interpretation of quantum mechanics" by Roland Omnes. Either has enough math to articulate the problem. I also really liked "Quantum mechanics and experience" by David Z Albert - it was this book that led me to realize that many-worlds is obviously true (as it now seems to me). Albert himself does not believe in many-worlds but he explains it really well. I'm now working through the university physics texts because none of the above cover relativistic QM. They physics texts though are - to a man - in the "shut up and calculate" school of thought. It is claimed that many a promising physicist has disappeared down the rat-hole of the philosophical interpretation of QM. You may also enjoy "A Different Universe: Reinventing Physics from the Bottom Down" by Robert Laughlin. He argues that so-called fundamental physics is just the lowest layer of emergent froth that we are able to see. Quantum Field Theory shows that "empty space" is full of stuff for example.

Surely one could easily replicate this "lottery" by buying path-dependent options with low exercise probability on the financial markets. People are not doing this, so this service must be less appealing than it intuitively seems.

I wonder what the odds actually are on "striking it rich" in a short period of time by treating financial markets as a gambling game. Is it better or worse than, say, the roulette wheel in a casino? If you bet $30,000 on a single number in a roulette wheel, you have a one in 38 chance of getting a 35x payout of... (read more)

It's an uncommon viewpoint, but one could, perhaps, justify the purchasing of lottery tickets as a "donation to charity" of sorts; the money goes to support the activities of the government that runs the lottery, which is (hopefully) going to use that money for good purposes. As a financial investment, though, lottery tickets are generally a bust; I suspect you'd do better playing slot machines at a Las Vegas casino. (There's the complication of rollover jackpots, but they don't have to matter here.)

Speaking of "wealth without effort"..... (read more)

1JSolitude
Although I do agree with the arguments of the writer concerning the odds, it is an article clearly written from the viewpoint of someone who belongs to the (upper) middle class, probably academically trained and with a reasonable payed job or peers or family who are financially supportive. The article lacks to identify the reasons (which ARE rational) of (mostly) lower class income people to play the lottery. As an excercise in empathy for the writer I do put forward the following scenario's: Suppose you are stuck in a dead end boring job or no job scenario, living from health care, etc. Although most educated people believe this is a situation they will not encounter in their lifetime, this situation has increasingly become real for an increasing amount of people. One might blame the world economy for this or one might blame the players who have finally been dropped out or have chosen to drop out of the rat race. May it be to poor education at a younger age, traumatic experiences, simply having the wrong education for the current playfield, being sacked at an older age, having no available finances to support further education, a lack of intelligence or simply spiraling down the road of depression due to a lack of chances or being stuck in a debt one can never recover of in a lifetime... these are all scenario's in which the player on the Lotto actually rationally pays for the soothing dream of a better (financial) future. A future that will not happen if one would not win the lottery. One might even say playing the Lotto is the same as religion. The one who plays is still a 'believer'. The player plays for hope. Despite the odds being stacked mile high against winning the Jackpot, one believes he or she might win it. It's the same as praying: by praying one hopes to find support in a supernatural being who might forsee in a better future of the believer. Sure, the person might save some money not playing the Lotto, but these savings will not be able to serio
0[anonymous]
I understand you! Currently I am working though, and hating it. It was stimulating and interesting for a few weeks, but after that I've hated it. I find it considerably better then death though! There is the time between shifts inf nothing else ;) My general plan now is to work as little as possible without unduly mooching off of someone else (did that a while, doesn't feel all that good in the end...). Currently I'm on an extended holiday (two months) and after that I'll begin working only about half time... My long-term plan though is to find something that I'd like to do anyway and make it support me: My dad is a photographer, and sort of did that: I'm not into that, but I'll find something. probably academic, but right now I really don't know. Anyway. Good luck! Edit: I don't really feel this way anymore. I guess I grew up a little bit.
0taryneast
Have you considered working as a video-game tester :)

If this were anything like my high school math class, everyone else in the class would decide to copy my answer. In some cases, I have darn good reasons to believe I am significantly better than the average of the group I find myself in. For example, I give one of my freshman chemistry midterms. The test was multiple choice, with five possible answers for each question. My score was an 85 out of 100, among the highest in the class. The average was something like 42. On the final exam in that class, I had such confidence in my own answer that I declared tha... (read more)

As a rabid game player, I find that the stimulation I get from playing some of my favorite video games is basically the same as the stimulation that I get from reading some of my favorite novels. There are some authors that I find to be more addictive than even some of the best games. (Terry Pratchett comes to mind.) Oddly enough, though, I find television oddly lacking when compared to print media and interactive media, as I keep wanting to DO something instead of watch passively. (Having another person watching along with me that I can talk with seems to... (read more)

Hedge funds might very well buy lottery tickets in certain circumstances if it were easy to buy them in large numbers. Sometimes the jackpots go so high that if you were to buy a ticket of every single possible lottery combination, it would cost less than the total prize money given out. However, states that run lotteries deliberately make it very difficult to buy millions of tickets, making this strategy impossible to execute in practice.

Rollover lottery jackpots can end up with prizes large enough so that the expected dollar value of a ticket is greater than the cost of a ticket; it's not necessarily foolish to buy a lottery ticket when the jackpot gets really large.

There are an awful lot of awful novice writers out there, though; just go to www.fanfiction.net and start reading. On the other hand, there are a couple of really brilliant writers there, too.

9Matt_Simpson
Looks at date of comment. Heh.

"Never give up" is bad advice?

Probability of success if you continue: small. Probability of success if you give up: zero.

Small is better than zero, am I right?

On the other hand, this analysis only matters if the cost of failure is no worse than the cost of giving up. The "rational" thing to do would be to give up if and only if (probability of success utility of success) + (probability of failure utility of failure) < (utility of giving up).

There are a lot of things that one can achieve through sheer persistence, but there are othe... (read more)

1pnrjulius
And what a trick it is!
DanielLC360

You're ignoring the probability of succeeding at something else. If you're still doing this, it's zero. If you give up, it's not.

Of course, that can also be considered a cost of failure, in which case you didn't ignore it.

Edit: This is equivalent to counting opportunity cost as a cost of failure that's not a cost of giving up, so maybe you weren't ignoring it.

6akshatrathi
The point of this post was to show that persisting at something while being irrational can only cause harm. Of course, "Never give up" is not bad advice, but Eliezer's advice is be rational and accept defeat when you need to.

"Those not willing to examine this evidence are following in the footsteps of Cardinal Bellarmine with his refusal to look through Galileo's telescope. And the refusal is for the same essential reasons: sociology and arrogance."

From the Crackpot Index: "40 points for comparing yourself to Galileo, suggesting that a modern-day Inquisition is hard at work on your case, and so on."

Anyway, based on what I've read, Sheldrake's experiments do return statistically significant results, but there tend to be problems with the experiments themselves that suggest the results are not caused by anything currently unknown to physics. For more details, just check out www.randi.org and search for Sheldrake's name.

Hmmm...

Q) Why do I believe that special relativity is true? A) Because scientists have told me their standards of evidence, and that the evidence for special relativity meets those standards.

I haven't seen anything contract when moving close to the speed of light. I haven't measured the speed of light in a vacuum and found that it is independent of the non-accelerating motion of the observer. I haven't measured a change in mass during nuclear reactions. I simply hear what people tell me, and decide to believe it.

George Orwell put it far more elegantly, and... (read more)

3Peacewise
Seems to me that a lack of patience is part of the problem. Some people would like to be able to really understand why special relativity is true and go through the argument and experiments but they'd have to invest quite some time doing so, before they'd find out for themselves. So too various other things people would like to know, but believe they haven't got the time to deeply examine. Couple that with a compressed curriculum in education where students now need to know more than ever before and know it in less time. Couple that with our society that puts information into increasingly small packets, that spends vast amounts of advertising dollars on convincing people in the shortest optimum time to buy some item, and it's revealed that people are time poor when it comes to deeply understanding and investigating what it is they want to know. Now with regards to "we still don't even know what kind of food is best to eat!" That is a question that we do know! But you probably won't find it in advertising material, you probably won't find it one particular book, and you most certainly won't find it in one particular eatery/restaurant. You will find the answer from a professional dietician/nutritionist (whatever your country calls them) that's spent about 3 years studying to find out the answer in all its complexity. Shall we trust that professional, shall we have faith in that professional? Or do we want to find out the answer for ourselves... whilst we struggle with paying the mortgage, getting the kids to school and meeting our work commitments? When we dismiss "faith" and "trust", and I don't mean in a deity, I mean when we dismiss faith and trust in other humans, we are left in a very precarious position of having to work it all out for ourselves.