Will be there. Any suggestions on where to park?
Ah interesting. I don't think the gender thing influenced my interpretations of the writing. Plus I started to figure out that he was a male fairly quickly but wasn't totally sure. I will say that he subverted my I-don't-listen-to-teenagers heuristic with some thoughtful, well-written posts. Funny too that reading his bio he strikes me as quite similar to myself, especially when I was in my late teens. In fact, I have posted on a forum with a girl-sounding name before.
Thanks to my previous employer, I actually went a step further and took a Dale Carnegie class called Effective Communications & Human Relations / Skills for Success Course. I think it was $1600 or so a couple years ago. My manager thought that I was doing a good job but that I was not particularly nice to people, which was accurate. So, thankfully, he paid for me to take the course and, as far as I can tell, it had a strong influence on me in a positive way.
The course was geared towards professionals of all flavors--engineers, salesman, executives, ...
What is the gender of gothgirl420666?
Can anyone recommend a book on marketing analytics? Preferably not a textbook but I'll take what I can get.
I have a technical background but I recently switched careers and am now working as a real estate agent. I have very limited marketing knowledge at this point.
Your can start by reading the Tim Ferriss' The 4-hour Workweek book, by the way.
Keep in mind that Tim Ferriss works extremely hard. You are not as successful and prolific as he is on a 4-hour workweek. Ironically enough.
I am unclear whether you are claiming that you're disabled or that you're simply lazy. So I am going to assume that you're lazy. But if, in fact, you are suffering from a medical condition, then it would be best to deal with that straightaway.
But I think I would always find being a 9 to 5er unappealing.
This seems to be the null hypothesis by which you basing your desire to work as little and as easily as possible on. I think your null hypothesis should be that developing a full time career will be most beneficial to you. A career is rewarding financia...
Depending on you current skill level, I'd think that the less than 2% likelihood is a generous estimate. Online poker was a bubble back in the early to mid 00's. Presently, edges are razor thin and only a very elite group are making 100K+/year.
Players are highly skilled--and getting better all the time--and able to populate multiple tables simultaneously (as opposed to live poker where you can play only a single table at a time); rake is high; online poker legality is hazy in many parts of the world; transferring money off the site is problematic; you'll ...
For the sake of clarity, my criticism of Josh's book was developed within the context of Josh promoting his book in a LW thread titled "The Best Textbooks on Every Subject."
I think the title--and especially the subtitle, " Mastering the Art of Business,"--signals that the book will be a thorough examination of business principles. As well, I think that hocking your book in a thread called "The Best Textbooks on Every Subject" signals that the book will be, at least, textbook-like in range, complexity and information containment. You now call your book "not densely written or overly technical." I call it cotton candy.
What is the status of this contest? Has there been another submission since mine? If not, then I would like my submission re-considered.
If, in fact, the spirit of the contest was to accomplish something, then, in retrospect, the value of my submission should have increased. I knocked out the article in a matter of days (here we are now, many weeks later) and it received a net of 14 upvotes. It may not have met the initial standards of the judges, but in light of new evidence--specifically, that there has been zero submission since--I think my accomplishment deserves renewed consideration.
This book, or, to be accurate, the 20 or so pages I read, are terrible. For someone who prefers dense and thorough examinations of topics, The Personal MBA is cotton candy. It is viscerally pleasing, but it offers little to no sustenance. My advice: don't get an MBA or read this book.
The mistake I made was considering the author's appearance in this thread as strong evidence that his book would offer value to a rationalist. In fact, the author is a really good marketer whose book has little value to offer. Congratulations to him, however, since he got me to buy a brand-new copy of a book, something I rarely do.
Wow, Duke - that's a bit harsh.
It's true that the book is not densely written or overly technical - it was created for readers who are relatively new to business, and want to understand what's important as quickly as possible.
Not everyone wants what you want, and not everyone values what you value. For most readers, this is the first book they've ever read about how businesses actually operate. The worst thing I could possibly do is write in a way that sounds and feels like a textbook or academic journal.
I don't know you personally, but from the tone of y...
It depends on how much time you are willing to devote. I spend 0-3 minutes per day on the cognitive biases deck which allows me to spend the additional 17-30 minutes I have allocated for Anki working on the NVC deck, which is massive. I plan to add a spanish vocab deck soon.
I'm not asking for a Rationalist of the Month Award, just a measly upvote.
After some deliberation, I've decided to withdraw this request. I am content with my submission. I am also content not to receive the prize or any portion thereof.
After some deliberation, I've decided to withdraw this request. I am content with my submission. I am also content not to receive the prize or any portion thereof.
I request arbitration and that it be done publicly.
Cross-commented from submission thread:
I think it is unfair of you to post a public critique of my submission since this is a contest. I have effectively been penalized for being first. Every submission that follows will have the benefit of seeing this critique.
I am also concerned that you have decided to change the contest format immediately following my submission. In my estimation, you had either already decided to change the format prior to my submission (clearly a major disadvantage to me), or you decided to change the format based on my submission, w...
I think it is unfair of you to post a public critique of my submission since this is a contest. I have effectively been penalized for being first. Every submission that follows will have the benefit of seeing this critique.
I am also concerned that you have decided to change the contest format immediately following my submission. In my estimation, you had either already decided to change the format prior to my submission (clearly a major disadvantage to me), or you decided to change the format based on my submission, which, again, effectively penalizes me for being first.
I agree with all of this. Maybe it doesn't come across clearly in my post, but I tried to differentiate between rank trivia and applicable knowledge, such as cognitive biases, decision theory concepts, logical fallacies, stuff you listed, etc. I don't know what exactly differentiates applicable knowledge with near-worthless trivia, however.
I was trying to avoid re-inserting the links, so thanks so much for your time!
I am working on this vigorously and expect to produce a submitted product soon. Proceed at your own risk if you are considering competing for this prize.
Getting it done to other's satisfaction and getting it done to your own are not mutually exclusive. You can work quickly to win the prize and then go back and expand.
Why do you care if it is done to your satisfaction when the prize is awarded based on other's satisfaction with it?
This is an expected value problem. Decide how much a unit of your time is worth, how much time you are willing to invest and then (the hard part) estimate your likelihood for success.
So, if you value your time at $10/hr, are willing to invest 10 hours and estimate you will win the $155 X% of the time then we get this equation:
P(winning)$amount won - P(losing)$amount not won = initial investment
x$155 - (1-x)$0 = $10/hr * 10 hours
solve for x
x ...
I am an Anki user and I am interested in working on this project.
While for a couple periods I counted my calories, measuring nutrients--either of the food or my own--is a low priority for me. If I could afford to pay someone to do these things for me I wouldn't hesitate. I'm content for now with this simple reasoning: How bad could it be to eat only fruits and vegetables? Plus, I can alter the diet in a moment if needed.
Redacted because I misread Manfred's comment the first time.
The diet is the result of a 5-ish year development. The major changes were, first, elimination of animals, then animal products, then processed products and finally everything that wasn't fresh fruits and vegetables and some pb and tofu. I heard a couple reasonable talks in the past year making the case that fresh fruits and veggies are unequivocally the healthiest foods. I said fuck it, why not just eat all fruits and veggies then? This was ~3 months ago.
In every way that matters to me it has been an overwhelming success: it's cheap, it tastes good, it gi...
I wouldn't be reading LW right now.
I try to eat only fruits, vegetables and peanut butter. I live alone and prepare my own food. I am at the grocery store 5 to 7 days a week. When freshness is essential and overstocking is bad, then I don't know of a better way.
A tip on consuming more vegetables and fruits when you have them: don't also keep other food around that you prefer to veg/fruits. If you prefer x to mangoes and have x and mangoes available to eat, then you'll eat more x than mangoes. Take willpower out of the equation. Force yourself to eat what you "should."
You should say something like "Now that we can agree on x, let's discuss y." (Given that agreeingt on y is dependent on a prior agreement about x.) Getting someone to agree with you is not the end of the conversation, it is the beginning. Thanking them for agreeing with you makes it seem like all matters are settled and now you may peacefully part ways.
Also, I disagree that it is intrinsically rational or polite or part of some gentlemen's agreement to thank someone when they concede your point.
Judging both from experience and after reading the original comments for this post, it seems that many people share the misconception that betting--be it on ideas or sports, etc--is always done at odds of 1:1, ie I bet $100 that my prediction y will occur by date z and if i am wrong I lose $100 and if I am right I win $100 (plus my original wager). In fact, astute gambling is about predicting the likelihood of an event and then finding someone to bet with whom you think has done a worse job than you at predicting the likelihood of the event.
For instance, ...
What's the evidence that knowing about cognitive biases is more dangerous than knowing math? My claim is that it is just as easy to apply math in an unbalanced way that favors one's already-held beliefs as it is to apply cognitive biases in a similarly unbalanced way.
In other words, why did EY speak specifically to cognitive biases as opposed to the general problem of using your knowledge more vigilantly to attack others arguments than to attack your own arguments?
I don't understand what makes learning about cognitive biases intrinsically different from obtaining any other type of knowledge. That is, couldn't you make a parallel argument that learning math (or any rationality skill) is dangerous unless it is applied evenhandedly to your own beliefs and to the beliefs of others?
GMO tech is used for a broad set of purposes and on a broad set of organisms. Monsanto uses GMO tech for specific purposes (firstly, to profit) on specific organisms. I don't see why this is a big problem for GMO tech even if there is an ethical breach by Monsanto.
The claim that "the purpose of GMOs is so Monsanto can have a plant they own.." is false. One tiny aspect of GMOs which objectors constantly harp on is Monsanto's business model.
I tend to treat anger and frustration as resulting from my map not matching the terrain somewhere. I suspect that your frustration is rooted in inaccurate mapping concerning the prior commitment that prevented you from meeting Patri. My guess is that you correctly assumed that there would be a small chance that something “better” than your commitment would pop-up that you would have to miss; but, you failed to properly assess the emotional impact this unlikely scenario would have on you. Now you can update your priors, do some re-mapping and be better prepared emotionally to deal with low-probability/high-annoyingness events.
Also, how similar is the present Patri-hysteria in Finland to the Beatles-hysteria in the 60's?
Somehow I doubt that the part about needing a guy to have lots of sex with you is worth mentioning.
I was going to say that same exact thing in 10x as many words.
While I would be interested in contributing to someone's independent research, a vague post on LW doesn't come anywhere close to meeting my minimum threshold for confidence to do such a thing. I would recommend that you continue working and spend your free time writing a paper or an intricate analysis or something else to inspire confidence in your potential to contribute significantly to the singularity/AI body of knowledge. Otherwise, why shouldn't I just donate my money to SIAI?
Great thx.