edge_retainer — LessWrong

LESSWRONG
LW

I also want to separately add that part of my frustration here (and the "can-kicking" part i mention) is that I worry this is just going to be weaponized as a reason to keep EA and LW glued together, even as obvious cracks develop. That would be fine - if we had a democracy - but we don't. So at some point glue is a weapon for those in the community with de facto control to keep trudging forward without having to account for the increasing differences in moral views of those within.

edge_retainer1mo

Actually, they are extremely well known outside of rationalist circles. Many subgroups of the Jewish and Buddist faiths are pretty much built upon these principles. My parents told me "don't put all your chips on the table" and ~keep optionality open. Some might even argue this is the core principle that has led to "democracy". And yes as you rightly mentioned these are clearly foundational principles behind LW and EA. That's why I use the strong language of "circlejerk". This is really unnecessarily reinventing common english phrases. Viatopia perhaps gives the idea a bit of an action relevant flavor so I guess it extends a bit beyond the others, still not particularly... (read more)

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edge_retainer1mo

CEV, Idealized reflection, viatopia are all obvious and just a can-kicking circlejerk. Anti realism is true and this changes nothing. The religious undertones that there is some sort of convergent nirvana once you think hard enough is not true. Cosmopolitianism is only better than heroin tiled rats if you assume certain axioms. You should listen to smarter wiser people, duh. We all know this already. How is this profound when applied to normative ethics.

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edge_retainer's Shortform

edge_retainer

9mo

This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.

edge_retainer9moQuick Take

is there a term for ai related works ratio of increasing safety to capabilities?

is there a list of the types of ai work that have the best ratio?

e.g. you would expect governance to probably have the best ratio

Replying toWhat's up with AI's vision

edge_retainer9mo

What's up with AI's vision

i have used tons of personal photos w/ kelsey's prompt, it has been extremely successful (>75% + never get's it wrong if one of my friends can guess it too), I'm confident none of these photos are on the internet and most aren't even that similar to existing photos. Creepily enough it's not half bad at figuring out where people are indoors as well (not as good, but like it got the neighborhood in Budapest I was in from a photo of a single room, with some items on a table).

Replying toOrienting to 3 year AGI timelines

edge_retainer1y

Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines

I've seen this take a few times about land values and I would bet against it. If society gets mega rich based on capital (and thus more or similarly inequality) I think the cultural capitals of the US (LA, NY, Bay, Chicago, Austin, etc.) and most beautiful places (Marin/Sonoma, Jackson hole, Park City, Aspen, Vail, Scotsdale, Florida Keys, Miami, Charleston, etc.) will continue to outpace everywhere else.

Also the idea that New York is expensive because that's where the jobs are doesn't seem particularly true to me. Companies move to these places as much because they are trying to attract talent as the other way around. I know lots of students who went... (read more)

Replying toI would have shit in that alley, too

edge_retainer2y

I would have shit in that alley, too

its a public externality, you don't need a government division to run bathrooms, you just need to do 1. + provide a subsidy

Replying toWhy I don't believe in the placebo effect

edge_retainer2y

Why I don't believe in the placebo effect

Yea, the Cochrane meta-study aggregates a bunch of heterogenous studies so the aggregated results are confusing to analyze. The unfortunate reality is that it is complicated to get a complete picture - one may have to look at the individual studies one by one if they truly want to come to a complete understanding of the lit.

edge_retainer2y

Betting against republicans and third parties on poly is a sound strategy, pretty clear they are marketing heavily towards republicans and the site has a crypto/republican bias. For anything controversial/political, if there is enough liq on manifold I generally trust it more (which sounds insane because fake money and all).

That being said, I don't like the way Polymarket is run (posting the word r*tard over and over on Twitter, allowing racism in comments + discord, rugging one side on disputed outcomes, fake decentralization), so I would strongly consider not putting your money on PM and instead supporting other prediction markets, despite the possible high EV.

Replying toOpenAI: Fallout

edge_retainer2y

OpenAI: Fallout

As a trust fund baby who likes to think I care about the future of humanity, I can confidently say that I would at least consider it, though I'd probably take the money.

What do people think about the polymarket Eth Etf resolution?

edge_retainer

Did they make the correct decision?

How did they handle it outside of the actual side they chose?

What are the implications for polymarket and prediction markets writ large?

What does this say about UMA?

Links:

https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31

https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1794002918888091836

https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-the-polymarket-ethereum-etf-by

https://manifold.markets/JamesBills/when-will-a-spot-ethereum-etf-be-ap