Slightly orthogonal comment here. One crux in some AI timelines might be how good we should expect AI to get at research taste, and how soon we should expect this to happen.
E.g. some fairly load-bearing claims in AI 2027:
“Human-only years from automated median researcher to superhuman coder: ~0-3 [years] assuming SC has 25th percentile research taste, more uncertainty if not.”
“The research taste gap alone is about 3x between their company’s median and best researchers.”
I’d be interested in [a future post noting a few of] your tho... (read more)
Thanks for this!
Slightly orthogonal comment here. One crux in some AI timelines might be how good we should expect AI to get at research taste, and how soon we should expect this to happen.
E.g. some fairly load-bearing claims in AI 2027:
I’d be interested in [a future post noting a few of] your tho... (read more)