If we observe experts changing their beliefs based on evidence often, but evidence changing based on the beliefs of experts never, then it seems reasonable that the chain of causality goes reality->evidence->beliefs of experts->beliefs of non-experts, with the possible shortcut reality->evidence->beliefs of non-experts, when the evidence is particularly abundant or clear.
If you break the habit of claiming confidence you don't really have, to improve your score, then it seems the exercise has had the intended effect, no?
He didn't reply to this, so I'll take a stab at unpacking/justifying that statement.
For the number of people in the world, smaller numbers are more conservative, so suppose that number is 6 billion. For the number of truly distinct things that there are to be good at, larger numbers are more conservative, so let us suppose that number to be 600,000. (I doubt if any reader can come up with even 10,000 such things, even allowing trivial variations like "experimental high energy physicist with subspecialty A" and "experimental high energy phys... (read more)