All of ErnestScribbler's Comments + Replies

I take some of those points. I don't know the state or trend of polarization in other countries (only countries with two main parties would be of interest for this model, multi-party elections yield a different system). Though I maintain that one country is still an observation to be explained, requiring a hypothesis. I could also believe that donations or activism don't drive election performance.


But fundamentally, I think you're addressing an issue with my suboptimal framing of the puzzle, rather than the puzzle itself. I'm not really interested in the t... (read more)

I very much agree this is possible, if voters vote in primaries based on ideological proximity rather than electability. But then how come the national elections are close? Coincidence? And what would happen if a politician moved a bit more towards the center after winning the primaries?

2jmh
A bit late seeing this. And I don't think I have answers but a couple of thoughts on your questions. I don't think it's coincidence but more like party affiliation have similar population sizes and similar voting participation rates then outcomes will likely be very close even when party platforms are far apart.  If the primary process pushes each side farther apart then  any post primary move towards the center will only get shifts form those in the tail of the "other side" they want to steel votes from while probably alienating voters from a fatter section of the distribution they represent. So that is a p1*n1 = new votes taken from center and p2*n2 = votes lost from other half of your support distribution. I suspect p1 might be fairly high but n1 is very low while p2 is low (not sure how low to guess at) while n2 is probably much larger than n1. (This said, I do think you not only have generally seen that "move towards the center" in many elections as well as while in office. But seems to me this has not been happening in the more recent elections where are seeing party platforms much farther apart than say the past 40-50 years.)

This is an interesting explanation. But then how do you think voters enforce their views to make politicians more radical? Suppose there were general elections between two candidates, and then a voter's preferred candidate made his views more moderate to appeal to a larger audience. Would the voter not vote at all in these elections? Or would that politician just not pass the primaries? Otherwise, even if voters dislike it, a politician could still get elected while being less liked than they could have been by their party's voters, but importantly - win the elections.

Interesting. And how do you think they enforce this dislike of moderates? By not voting at all? By voting for the other party if it's more extreme? If they prefer extreme politicians but still vote for the politician closest to their views, the puzzle isn't solved.

2Dagon
They vote for the politician that represents their signals, and that irks the other tribe.    

Not sure I understand how this explains the polarization of politicians. What is preventing Biden from saying "Abortion is a state issue"? His tribe will still support him, but some fraction of the swing voters will find him more appealing. Couldn't it sway the elections in his favor? Why didn't he do it? Generally I don't see how tribalism is a challenge to the thesis.

1Phil Scadden
Again, as an outsider, I scratch my head over the behavior of the US politicians themselves. It seems more centrist positions would indeed bolster election chances, but instead politicians play to their bases and I dont think that helped Trump nor is it helping Biden. Despise of compromise? Or that playing to the base is necessary for winning the primary and you cant retreat? I find your hypothesis 4 pretty compelling.  I think elections are generally close because successful parties have evolved to find electable platforms. If you always lost, you would change your platform to become more electable.  (Look at the rise the "Labour" parties in countries like UK, Australia and NZ as they gradually lost extreme positions. Similar things are happening in Green movements). 

That's interesting. I agree I glossed over many (most) parts where the parties agree (on general democratic principles, on capitalism in some form, on the order of magnitude of budget for many things) and focused on issues where they disagree.

But I think for my thesis, any remaining differences are a puzzle to be explained, and the perceptions that the parties differ is what drives the results. Since public debate focuses on issues where parties differ substantially, these should be the issues driving voting behavior - you can narrow down the model to thos... (read more)

Thanks for the thoughtful comment!
I agree that the normative parts were the weakest in the Book. There were other parts that I found weak, like how I think he caught the Moral Foundations and their ubiquitous presence well, but then made the error of thinking liberals don't use them (when in fact they use them a lot, certainly in today's climate, just with different in-groups, sanctified objects, etc.). An initial draft had a section about this. But in the spirit of Ruling Thinkers In, Not Out, I decided to let go of these in the review and focus on the pa... (read more)

1Benjamin David Steele
@EnestScribbler - You wrote that, "I think he caught the Moral Foundations and their ubiquitous presence well, but then made the error of thinking liberals don't use them (when in fact they use them a lot, certainly in today's climate, just with different in-groups, sanctified objects, etc.)." Others noted that same problem. If the moral foundations truly are inherent in all of human nature, then presumably all humans use them, if not in the same way. But he also doesn't deal with the dark side of the moral foundations. Some of the so-called binding moral values are, in fact, key facets of what social scientists study in right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation. How can one talk about the view of tribalism while somehow not seeing that mountain on the landscape? As with the personality traits of liberal-minded openness and conservative-minded conscientiousness, Haidt doesn't grapple enough with all of the available evidence that is relevant to morality. Many things that liberals value don't get called 'values', according to Haidt, because he is biasing his moral foundations theory according to a more conservative definition of morality. So, liberals are portrayed as having fewer moral values, since a large swath of what moral values is defined away or simply ignored. @TJL -  You wrote that, "If we want to know the right thing to do, we can't just assume that all of the moral foundations have a grain of truth, figure we're equally tribalistic, and compromise with the conservatives; we need to turn to reason." It's interesting how Haidt dismisses moral pragmatism and utilitarianism but then basically reaffirms it's essential, after all. So essential, in fact, that it seems to undermine his entire argument about conservative morality being superior. Since the binding moral foundations have much overlap with right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) and social dominance orientation (SDO), that probably should give us pause.  Should we really be repackag

Thanks!
I think you'll very much enjoy the part of the book about the hive switch, and psychedelics.