All of EStokes's Comments + Replies

Hi any it may concern,

You could say I have a technical moat in a certain area and came across an idea/cluster of ideas that seemed unusually connected and potentially alignment-significant but whose publication seems potentially capabilities-enhancing. (I consulted with one other person and they also found it difficult to ascertain or summarize)

I was considering writing to EY on here as an obvious person who would both be someone more likely to be able to determine plausibility/risk across a less familiar domain and have an idea of what further to do. Is t... (read more)

3Nathan Helm-Burger
EY may be too busy to respond, but you can probably feel pretty safe consulting with MIRI employees in general. Perhaps also Conjecture employees, and Redwood Research employees, if you read and agree with their views on safety. That at least gives you a wider net of people to potentially give you feedback.

i like the idea of living in ingroupy housing (insofar as i am correctly understanding it as also being suitable for people with low socialization satiety thresholds)

I'm thinking a bit about AI safety lately as I'm considering writing about it for one of my college classes.

I'm hardly heavy into AI safety research and so expect flaws and mistaken assumptions in these ideas. I would be grateful for corrections.

  1. An AI told to make people smile tiles the world with smiley faces but an AI told to do what humans would want it to do might still get it wrong eg. Failed Utopia #4-2 . However, wouldn't it research further and correct itself (and before that, have care to not do something un-correctable)? Reasoning as follows: l

... (read more)
1Manfred
1: Imagine a utility function as a function that takes as input a description of the world in some standard format, and outputs a "goodness rating" between 0 and 100. The AI can then take actions that it predicts will make the world have a higher goodness rating. Lots of utility functions are possible. Suppose there's one possible future where I get cake, and one where I get pie. I have a very strong opinion on these futures' goodness, and I will take actions that I predict will make the world more likely to turn out pie. But this is not a priori necessary - we could define a utility function that swaps the goodness ratings of cake and pie, and an AI using that utility function would take actions that it predicts will lead to worlds with higher goodness rating, i.e. cake. There is no objective standard that it could use to realize that pie is better - it is merely a computer program that makes predictions and then picks the action that it predicts maximizes some function. Utopias are like cake and pie. If I give the pie utopia a higher goodness rating, and the AI gives the cake utopia a higher goodness rating, it's not "wrong" in the sense of being able to check its work and find a mistake. The AI can prefer the cake utopia even while operating perfectly. This is what happens in the case of Failed Utopia 4-2. The AI has some preferences about the world. And those preferences are very close but not quite human preferences. And so the main character ends up in the cake utopia. Even if the AI does a lot more research and checks its reasoning carefully, it is not a priori necessary that it should realize the error of its ways and make the world a pie utopia instead. It's wrong(2), but not wrong(1). Similar problems show up when you try to make any sort of AI that just "does what humans want." Eventually, somewhere, you have to turn this vague verbal statement into a precise specification (like the code of the AI), which is used to compute something like a goodness r
1Vaniver
Check out the Cake or Death value loading problem, as Stuart Armstrong puts it. There's a rough similarity to the 'resist blackmail' problem, which is that you need to be able to tell the difference between someone delivering bad news and doing bad things. If the AI is mistaken about what is right, we want to be able to correct it without being interpreted as villains out to destroy potential utility. (Also, "correctable" is not really a low-level separation in reality, since the passage of time means nothing is truly correctable.)
5PeteMichaud
Thank you!
EStokes30

Ah, I also wish there were some posts about the practical parts of signing up. An overview of options, like Alcor or CI, standby service, life insurance costs, whether to consider relocation to Phoenix or whatnot, whether to get one of those bracelet things or something, and for god's sake let the guide not be so US-centric.

Though possibly this masterpost-thing exists and I haven't heard of it, or my unusual distaste for not having every detail planned out beforehand is biasing me.

EStokes10

So basically what your saying is that it is possible for a man to "really" be a woman even though not only all the physical/biological evidence points that way, but he isn't even aware of it? This raises even more questions whether you definition of "really a woman" corresponds to anything in reality.

Hm, good question! I'd say: in the same way one might discover one prefers, say, some obscure flavor of ice cream one hadn't tried before to one's previous favorite of chocolate ice cream. Does that mean that the person's favorite wasn'... (read more)

EStokes30

I'm not sure I follow. Is the logic that my claim necessitates more lying because people lied about not being transgender in the past (or as I would put it, were unaware or in the closet)? The fact of it being more widely low-status in the past explains that in my explanation as well as yours. Furthermore, if that is what you mean, then do you not also think that the higher amount of openly gay people these days is similar?

-1VoiceOfRa
So basically what your saying is that it is possible for a man to "really" be a woman even though not only all the physical/biological evidence points that way, but he isn't even aware of it? This raises even more questions whether you definition of "really a woman" corresponds to anything in reality. So you agree that the claim that my explanation "necessitates a lot of people lying" that you made in the grandparent is BS. That raises the question why did you make it? It's similar, the difference being that "gay" properly refers to a person's behavior rather than an intrinsic property. And yes, the current attempt to claim that "gayness" is an intrinsic property is similarly problematic.
EStokes20

I suppose that wasn't a good example, then. Of course, my answer is that their greater non-existence was because it was socially unacceptable to be transgender.

So those are like two side of a coin, no? I say that it was socially unacceptable and less so now, so more realize it and come forth, while you say it was sometimes high-status then and more so now, so more say they are this made-up thing. Why do you prefer your explanation, which necessitates a lot of people lying?

-2VoiceOfRa
Your explanation necessitates even more people lying. The difference is that it is more socially acceptable to assert that people lied in the past than to admit that someone currently around is lying, which is the only reason your claim even sounds vaguely reasonable.
EStokes50

I'm not exactly sure what your explanation is. That transgenderism is status-seeking? In that case, I suppose I'd ask about the existence of transgender people pre-SJ...?

In any case, I disagree with your assessment of cis-ness as unconnected to any real thing (that is what you're saying, no?). Hmm... maybe I'd put it akin to being a goth. Many non-goths would feel uncomfortable if suddenly they were forced to go about their lives clearly dressed as such. It communicates membership of a group they don't identify with.

Does that clarify anything?

-2VoiceOfRa
Well let's take a look at that shall we. Hey, it appears that they were almost non-existent and largely confined to the subcultures that were the predecessors of SJ.
EStokes50

When I wasn't exposed to more transgender people and viewpoints, I didn't pay attention and connect the dots I had that pointed at my not being cis, since I'm non-binary with relatively mild dysphoria. So, I'm planning on getting top surgery in a year or two, and wouldn't have if I hadn't introspected and found myself to be not cis. This could be seen as being perfectly happy in the body I was born with until it became fashionable to be transgender, but the connotations are very different.

-4VoiceOfRa
So why should I prefer your explanation to mine? Especially since mine makes much more sense from a biological point of view and doesn't require a free-floating XML tag (whether one is "really not cis").
EStokes40

FrameBenignly's comment reflects my opinion well

EStokes40

I disagree about asking a dietician and not LW.

3JoshuaZ
Can you expand on your reasoning?
EStokes10

Hm. Would an example w/r/t triggers be that many trans men don't like being called female-bodied? This doesn't stem from seeing sex and gender as synonymous, but is just due to the terminology rubbing the wrong way.* AFAB (assigned female at birth) and AMAB are the generally preferred terms.

*I'd speculate that "female-bodied" implies that the word "female" on its own has something to do with gender (why else add "-bodied"?) which in turn makes "female-bodied"'s implied meaning "body belonging to one of the female gender". Also, not merely referring to birth assignment means that the term breaks down during medical transition as the body changes.

3VAuroch
Things like that, yes, but it applies pretty broadly. In my experience (and I've talked about this with a couple close friends to get a sense of the boundaries), anything that generalizes beyond very specific traits tends to trigger dysphoria, and that includes stuff like "you still have a typically-female muscle distribution, so you should probably use workout advice for women initially", or 'well, female bodies are usually more sensitive to extreme temperatures'; the kind of things that are talking about how their body is shaped right now, where it's the growth pattern, rather than assignment at birth, which is important. This is especially relevant because for a lot of this kind of thing, it doesn't change even when going through hormones; hip bones, larynx, and sex organs are the most obvious ones, but a lot of stuff about bone structure will only change on the scale of decades. A lot of this will become less relevant if puberty-blockers become standard, because then a lot of the generalizations will only apply to people who first considered the possibility later in life or were blocked for family reasons. Some people I know are optimistic that standard will happen soon, and if they're right, then that probably will happen before the cultural payoff of separating the terms would show up. I don't think that's terribly likely, myself.
EStokes00

Distinct?

Regardless, I take issue with your comment. It reads insultingly.

-2VAuroch
As far as most (I think all) trans people I know are concerned, sex and gender are synonyms, because as far as triggering them is concerned, they are synonyms. In the medium-to-long term, making their be very clear distinctions between sex (biological) and gender (social) would be a very good thing to have fixed in the broader culture, as it would normalize the distinction and have the language reinforce lack of transphobia, but in the short run it would pick at existing emotional wounds, so at least unless and until there's an organized effort to establish the distinction in common language, reflecting their strong personal preferences seems like the right thing to do.
EStokes-10

The more is donated, the better, so figure out how much you expect to want for your own spending/saving and donate the rest. Don't give so much that it takes a toll on you; it must remain something achievable that you want to do.

EStokes30

AFAIK people with mismatched romantic and sexual orientations, though very much existent, are quite rare and the -romantic terms are most often used by asexual spectrum people to describe their romantic preferences.

2hyporational
Asexuals with romantic orientations came across my mind too. I can't imagine romantic and sexual orientations as separate, but the stakes aren't high enough for me to commit the typical mind fallacy so I'll keep my mind open to the possibility :)
EStokes10

Ah, but it's quite likely that they're heteroromantic as well as heterosexual.

1hyporational
Perhaps, but why haven't I come across any homoromantic heterosexuals or heteroromantic homosexuals?
EStokes40

Thank you, this is very useful!

EStokes60

Good point! When I asked her earlier she said she wanted to save the rainforest to stop global warming, but I don't think she's completely inflexible about this.

6jefftk
"she wanted to save the rainforest to stop global warming" Katja Grace (of Meteuphoric) did some research for Giving What We Can looking into climate change charities. She wrote up her findings as a blog post.
2Lumifer
/facepalm
EStokes10

I think there was a masterpost of tumblr rationalists at some point- ask ozy about it, maybe? Besides that, it depends on your other interests.

EStokes20

My sister is interested in environmental charities, a category which Givewell has no recommendations about. Does anyone know of any actually good ones?

jefftk140

What draws her to environmental charities? Concern for animals? Concern for humans? Fighting global warming with its likely negative effects on both?

Before GiveWell/whoever can make a recommendation they need to know what the person wants. The best environmental charity for preventing species extinction is going to be very different than the best one for preventing animal suffering.

EStokes00

Surely brains have processes that compute people?

ETA: To rephrase: a person is a process in a brain

-6AndyWood
EStokes00

Try keeping food nearby? Have food in the house that's easy to prepare? Buy tastier food (even at the expense of healthiness)?

EStokes20

Some guesses on my part-

  • Maybe your tendency towards precision is at the wrong times? If practicing, for example, it might be counterproductive since you probably want quantity instead of quality, or maybe you're trying to get everything down precisely too early on and it's making your work stiff.

  • Manfred's point is good- "metaphor that captures the scene without the need for detail."... If you render background details overmuch, they can distract the viewer from the focal point of the work. Maybe put some effort into looking at how the "m

... (read more)
EStokes180

If the right thing to do is the consequentialist thing to do, and an outcome turns out bad, but it was still the best choice with the information one knew at the time, would that be consequentialism or virtue ethics?

edit: Ok, I completed the survey and just guessed. Would still like to know the answer though.

7RobinZ
It sounds like rule consequentialism to me - the ultimate arbiter of good and evil remains the consequences, but instead of determining rectitude by calculating the consequences of the action, you calculate the consequences of the decision method. Basically, to use a blackjack metaphor, the rule consequentialist says someone who doubles-down when they have two tens showing is playing badly, even if they get an ace ... unless they've been counting cards and already know that the next card is an ace.
EStokes40

Heck, I've been here quite a while and it still rubbed me the wrong way.

0FiftyTwo
Likewise, it seems a large generalisation, and other facts about the person in question seem more relevant (e.g. age, educational background, financial situation.)
EStokes20

I use LW casually and my attitude towards it is pretty neutral/positive but I recently got downvoted something like 10 times in past comments, it seems. A karma loss of 5%, and it's a lot, comparing the amount of karma I have to how long I've been here. I didn't even get into a big argument or anything, the back-and-forth was pretty short. So my attitude toward LW is very meh right now. Sorry, sort of wanted to just say this somewhere. ugh :/

EStokes40

Though it might be good to tack on "though it doesn't mean it's not a valid statement" to the beginning or something. Not that I'm trying to police the way you comment, haha, I'm just trying to say this in a way that doesn't seem like aggression.

EStokes40

Oh, huh. I didn't mean to do that. Do you think you could point it out for me? I'm no expert.

And I'm not trying to say that such a large portion of straight white males aren't aware of these prejudices that you'd need to provide anecdotal evidence to the contrary, haha. ?

EStokes20

Well, I'm not trying to say that you personally doubt they exist.

What I'd meant by the first comment, excuse me if I'd caused confusion by saying comment, is this:

The Heterosexual White Males example rubs me the wrong way.

The article deals tightly scapegoating and seeing malignant agency where there is none.

EStokes20

Well, hmm. I'm not really sure that it was in good taste nonetheless. I understand that you're joking, and that there are conspiracy theories like that. That Jews, the Illuminati, or Heterosexual White Males have a big conspiracy to rule the world is a pretty silly idea, that's true. Here's what I think the thing is. Straight white males are the least discriminated against and therefore probably most likely to be dismissive of the idea that racism, sexism ect still exist and such. People don't really like hearing that their group has it good and that they'... (read more)

1wedrifid
I am well aware that these prejudices exist. I even spot prejudice implicit in this very sentence.
5[anonymous]
I don't doubt they exist at all. No. Thought I must admit I'm not quite sure which comment you have in mind. I do think I mentioned something like that in the original form of this comment, but it was aimed at categorizing the kinds of conspiracies I linked to and didn't have anything to do with this fork of the conversation. Edit: Ugh I'm so stupid, of course you where refering to the first comment in this exchange. I forgot about that line. No it wasn't targeted at you I was setting up my explanation of why I thought it made a good joke/example. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
EStokes20

The Heterosexual White Males example rubs me the wrong way. I haven't heard of what I'd call conspiracy theories about that, and it doesn't match the ridiculousness of Satan or the Illuminati. It reads like someone who wants to get back at feminists or whomever, you know. A politically motivated and sort of mean-spirited low blow. I mean, maybe there are a bunch of people that believe that on a level that matches the rest of the examples, but this is the vibe I got.

-2CommanderShepard
I've had enough of your disingenuous assertions. Gains Renegade Points
-6[anonymous]
[anonymous]120

The Heterosexual White Males example rubs me the wrong way.

The article deals tightly scapegoating and seeing malignant agency where there is none.

Our Dunbarian minds probably just plain can't get how a society can be that complex and unpredictable without it being "planned" by a cabal of Satan or Heterosexual White Males or the Illuminati (but I repeat myself twice) scheming to make weird things happen in our oblivious small stone age tribe.

The line was a joke alluding to acceptable targets. However since you responded seriously and wit... (read more)

-5Oligopsony
EStokes190

To avoid repeating myself I will just say here that I've downvoted multiple replies of yours for hostility. Stating a preference for text isn't an attack on you; misrepresenting people's responses just comes off badly.

EStokes10

What I did personally was read through them through relatively quickly. I might not have understood it at the same level of depth but if something is related to something in the sequences then I'll know and know where I can find the information if there's anything I've forgotten.

EStokes10

But then one wouldn't be able to provide negative reinforcement for his downvotes...?

3Jonathan_Graehl
Surely the cranks voting up/down only on math-heaviness are just noise. But I do admit that yours is a clever observation. :)
EStokes10

Hmm, Creative Arts seems useless for its intended purpose. The only thing I can think of that might have a benefit is Performance Arts though I don't really know, and it seems to me there'd be more effective ways to teach communication skills in the personal development class.

[anonymous]110

Yes, the author seems to follow the typical conceptualization of creativity as something inherently mysterious and irreducible, accessible only through extreme artsiness. Rather than the thing that happens in your head whenever you're facing a problem for which you lack a ready-made algorithm.

EStokes20

Oh boy, Homestuck music stuff. Nice. Salmon sounds a bit dark though- seems more like a Feferi and Condesce combo. Kingdom makes me think of his time on LOWAA, kind of actiony but dark or sad or something. Anyways, cool.

0David_Gerard
Thank you :-) I was consciously filling out "Kingdom" with bits that might go well with an animation (e.g. the piano figure). Yeah, "Salmon" does sound more like power realised rather than just aspired to.
EStokes10

I... don't see how making someone feel silly is going to help in the long run? If it really is a problem for them, then wouldn't they have a harder time bouncing back from thinking they've said something silly/stupid, not to mention feel alienated and alone, possibly discouraging them from talking about it again instead of doing the deed? It seems to me that an expression of suicidal intent as a cry for help doesn't necessarily make it insincere. It doesn't sound unlikely to me that someone could say they've the intent to do it, because their view of how t... (read more)

3sixes_and_sevens
I'm not suggesting that it's beneficial to make suicidal people feel silly. I'm proposing that the sensation of retreating from a position of suicidal intent is often feeling silly about having done it. I'm starting to regret posting this now. There's way too much room for misinterpretation.
EStokes00

Do you mean something like that if one has that many problems one could just walk away from them and become a bum...? I think that one could think that they or the world or some interaction of the two is the problem, and there's no escaping from that by becoming a bum.

2mwengler
YMMV. Its not about rational proof, but rather what works for you. For YEARS the idea that before I would ever kill myself I would just go live under the boardwalk at Santa Cruz and drink 1/2 gallon bottles of red wine was an extremely comforting thought. In my later life as I have contemplated my own demise, I remember that and think how much harder it is now to take comfort from that, but not impossible. In my case, I recognize any suicidal thoughts as just frustration, signalling, wanting to call the world's bluff. I NEVER want to kill myself when I am happy, its not a rational thing at all. Along these lines I would imagine bringing the person to a happier frame of mind. Explore things the person might want to talk about and get him talking about those. When we are intereacting we are connected, when we are connected we don't generally want to be dead. I am talking through my hat, I don't know anything about these topics from any sort of study.
EStokes20

I don't like the idea of torturing puppies, but that alone doesn't really tell me whether it's wrong to do so

EStokes00

It seems to me that there would be priors that are useful and those that aren't would biases, and that there would be optimal priors to have.

I don't see why there should be a better strategy for every strategy, either, because one would finally be perfect.

EStokes-10

It seems to me that there'd be a perfect rationality, and different strategies to produce results as close as possible to what it would produce.

EStokes00

What do you mean? It seems to me like the "one true rationality" would be the perfect and unbiased strategy that others tried to emulate, but I'm not sure how it wouldn't exist?

2Zetetic
In addition to Prase's comment on the possibility of an unbounded chain of strategies (and building off of what I think shminux is saying), I'm also wondering (I'm not sure of this) if bounded cognitive strategies are strictly monotonically increasing? i.e.( For all strategies X and Y, X>Y or Y>X). It seems like lateral moves could exist given that we need to use bounded strategies - certain biases can only be corrected to a certain degree using feasible methods, and mediation of biases rests on adopting certain heuristics that are going to be better optimized for some minds than others. Given two strategies A and B that don't result in a Perfect Bayesian, it certainly seems possible to me that EU(Adopt A) = EU(Adopt B) and A and B dominate all other feasible strategies by making a different set of tradeoffs at equal cost (relative to a Perfect Bayesian).
0Shmi
"One size fits all" approach rarely works. Like with CDT vs EDT (I will consider the TDT more seriously when it has more useful content than just "do whatever it takes to win"). Eh, seems like I'm still stuck at the summit on this one.
5prase
Any cognitive strategy is a bias, sort of. Take Occam's razor as illustration: if the truth is complicated, starting with Occamian prior is an obstacle. If the the laws of nature were complicated, Occam's razor would be classified among other cognitive biases. We don't call it a bias because we reserve that word for errors, but it is pretty hard to give a non-circular precise definition of "error". Are you sure that it is not the case that for each cognitive strategy there is a better one, for any reasonable metric?
EStokes30

How could there be more than one true rationality?

0Dorikka
Different strategies are unlikely to get you the same result, (i.e, the exact same output for a given utility function), but there may be a number of strategies whose outputs are fairly close to each other, such that which strategy one should optimally employ is very dependent on one's background.
1faul_sname
While there can't be more than one true rationality, there can be more than one "true rationality". The LessWrong brand of rationality distinguishes itself mainly by the idea that "rationalists should win." This is a fairly nonstandard definition of rationality, though useful.
0[anonymous]
While there can't be more than one true rationality, there can be more than one "true rationality". The LessWrong brand of rationality distinguishes itself mainly by the idea that "rationalists should win." This is a fairly nonstandard definition of rationality, though useful.
-1Shmi
There can be less.
EStokes110

Isn't that kind of missing the point of the question?

5daenerys
There was a recent discussion, Rationality of sometimes missing the point of the stated question, and of certain type of defensive reasoning, that contemplated the idea that sometimes it is useful to miss the point of the question. When I read the Eat Smart Cow question, it seemed like the type of question that requires said "missing of point". Quote below: I am in fact, rather happy that I read something on LW, and applied the thought to a different question a couple days later. It makes me feel like an a growing aspiring rationalist who Learns Things.
EStokes40

If they have all the threory and coded it and whatnot, where is the cost coming from?

1falenas108
The theory for friendliness is completely separate from the theory of AI. So, assuming they complete one does not mean that they complete the other. Furthermore, for something as big as AI/FAI, the computing power required is likely to be huge, which makes it unlikely that a small company like SIAI will be able to create it. Though, I suppose it might be possible if they were able to get large enough loans, I don't have the technical knowledge to say how much computing power is needed or how much that would cost.
EStokes60

Would it be possible to see some of your art? Do you have a website, perhaps?

1Raemon
I don't have a website for drawings. I do have a website for computer animation. I probably should be posting some examples though.
EStokes20

Ultimately I'd like to get a job as a video game concept artist, as I like video games and drawing. However, it seems pretty tough to get a job in, and art school is probably going to end up costing a pretty sum, even looking at TAD which looks promising. The bachelor's in CS will be free here in Denmark, so I'll then use that to get a job as a programmer and save up some money for art school, and then I'll have something to fall back onto if art school doesn't work out and which can work as another way into the games industry.

Related to future plans, I also like the idea of donating 10% of income to charity.

0Michelle_Z
I plan on being a video game concept artist as well. I am in the process of getting a degree in graphic design, which is a larger umbrella than the pure art that is required in order to be a concept artist. I figure I will work in whatever job I can find in graphics, meanwhile trying to get my name out there. I figure I'll also do commissions work and that kind of thing. If you ever have any questions about illustrator/Photoshop or any of that in general, feel free to pm me.
0Alexei
That seems like a very round-about way, but I understand that when money is tight, it's often necessary to go in a safe way like that. My advice is to make a lot of art on your own time. That's the best way to get good and to show that you know what you are doing. Work on indie games, do freelancing. In fact, I'm actually starting to work on a game based on Eliezer's "The Simple Truth" article. I was planning to look for some amateur artists on DeviantArt, someone who is in the situation like you: they could use practice and exposure. If you are interested, let me know (private message), and we can try to work something out. I'm not promising anything though.
2Curiouskid
Why is a BS in CS free in Denmark?
EStokes110

Er, I'm not new, but I assume this is for high schoolers regardless of how long they've been on here? That seems most convenient, at least.

  1. 16, junior
  2. Eh, not really. Nothing focused.
  3. Not a one, so far as I know.
  4. My plan is to get a bachelor's in computer science or the equivalent, save money by continuing to live with my mom, and then go to an art school.
  5. No
4Alexei
What will you do with a Bachelor's in CS? Why do you want to go to Art School after that? What will you do after all of that?
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