I can't be alone in thinking this; where does one acquire the probability values to make any of this theory useful? Past data? Can it be used on an individual or only organizational level?
Many people on Less Wrong see Judea Pearl's work as the right approach to formalizing causality and getting the right conditional probabilities. But if it was simple to formally specify the right causal model of the world given sensory information, we'd probably have AGI already.
Have you ever considered studying Facial Action Coding System?