LESSWRONG
LW

All of Fuji's Comments + Replies

You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
Fuji-10

The facts as presented are not accurate so that is throwing off your calculation.

For example, when discounting Knox's statement to the police most people consider that it was after a length interrogation but the truth is the questioning lasted one hour. They accept that Knox was mistreated but all the evidence points to them treating her toughly but as expected for a murder suspect. What is never mentioned in the interrogation story is that Sollecito told the police Knox was not with him the night of the murder and that he lied at Knox's request. This inf... (read more)

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Inherited Improbabilities: Transferring the Burden of Proof
Fuji-30

Exactly. The problem for Knox and Sollecito is that there is so much evidence that even if it was all weak (and it isn't) just the number of items is sufficent to arrive at a high certainty of guilt because they are all independent events.

http://themurderofmeredithkercher.com/The_Evidence

That is a lot of evidence. Some items are so strong that they in isolation would be sufficent to reach the level of certainty required to convict and others are strong evidence but not enough. I count 24 items.

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6Jack
Only works if each piece of evidence is independent. They're clearly not.
-3Decius
I find it much more ludicrous that a small army of experts would have so little disagreement if they weren't privileging a hypothesis. How likely is it that interviews at 0145 and 0545 would be confused and contradictory if the suspect was innocent, as compared to if the suspect was guilty? Personally, I think that a slightly confused interview history is slight Bayesian evidence of guilt, because someone with a prepared lie is less likely to appear confused about it than someone trying to tell the truth.