All of gareth's Comments + Replies

Answer by gareth10

I understand your struggle. I dream of being able to coherently communicate my ideas in a structured, understandable and dare I say convincing manner. I succeed when I start with an idea, write it down and start adding notes, ideas and talking points. Then I start fleshing out the ideas, asking myself how can I explain that concept or idea, whilst building an evolving narrative. Usually what starts as a mess of notes evolves into something coherent when I put myself in the position of the reader, asking myself i) what am I trying to communicate; and ii) a... (read more)

gareth30

Meditation and morning pages / journaling are 2 things that I regularly do. I have found that meditation is helpful for focus and clearing my mind. Morning pages has made me much better at understanding my thought processes and resolving issues I may have, whether personal or professional. When I started them both I wasn’t sure what the result would be but now as I practice they are both super useful tools that have improved my life.

Answer by gareth50

Relative pitch and absolute pitch are 2 different skills. While most people can learn relative pitch, some people say that absolute is genetic and can’t be learnt. I don’t believe this is true (at least in my case). My technique is to learn songs that start on a specific pitch (C for example) and internalise the pitch, imagine the sound and try to sing it before comparing with the original. Try this exercise every morning, take notes and see if you improve over time.

1Bezzi
I am one of those people. Fact is, I've spent ten years in a conservatory, surrounded by dozens of people heavily selected for music-related skills, and basically all of them agreed on absolute pitch being genetic. In a conservatory, relative pitch is considered a very important skill, taught to students of all courses through specific exercises, and some mandatory exams are almost impossible to pass without a decent relative pitch. Absolute pitch is treated the opposite way: no one tries to teach it to you and absolutely no exam requires it. The majority of my professors claimed to not have absolute pitch themselves (the choir director always carried a tuning fork with her, being unable to recall the exact frequency of 440 Hz necessary to intone the choir). These people have spent their entire lives practicing and teaching music at high levels for countless hours, and still don't have absolute pitch. I would be truly shocked if it turned out that you can learn absolute pitch through simple practice.
2Nicole Dieker
That's how I've done it, too. Once you know what pitch your favorite song starts on, for example, or what key it's in, learning pitches becomes much easier. This assumes that you can recall music from memory in its original key, of course. If you can't, your first step might involve strengthening that kind of recall.
Answer by gareth*20

If you have your booster then the symptoms of omicron will likely be mild. Anecdotally I just recovered from O after booster and my symptoms were so mild that if I hadn’t tested, I wouldn’t have known. My two unboosted friends suffered more with 3-5 days of flu-like symptoms. My decision was to get my booster, take hi-dose vitamin D and get on with my life, although everyone will have to make their own cost benefit analysis based on personal health situation, whether they can afford 5 (or 7 or 10 depending on country) days quarantine.

Answer by gareth*30

I’m not an immunologist so can’t talk of the efficacy of various vaccine strategies which seem unclear at the moment, but I ask myself - what is the opportunity cost of not getting a booster now? If we assume that omicron boosters will be available in (at best) 3-4 months, and then given to elderly or immunocompromised people first, the chance of me getting an omicron booster in the next 6 months is low. Weigh that against the chance of getting omicron covid in the next 6 months. Looking at the data, we can already establish that omicron is more contagious... (read more)

5ChristianKl
The open hypothesis is that getting the booster against the alpha-spike-protein might increase the "original antigenic sin" dynamics and reduce the effect of the Omicron booster.
gareth*120

As the saying goes, “it’s time in the market, not timing the market”. There is a lot of research that says that market timing is incredibly difficult and most people fail to do it successfully.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2016/03/07/the-myth-of-market-timing/

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/12/23/3-reasons-why-you-shouldnt-wait-for-the-stock-market-to-crash/

Also your assumption that the fed will raise interest rates to control inflation assumes that low inflation is their actual goal rather than just their stated goal. This months ARP news... (read more)

1FCCC
Yeah, that's exactly how I look at it: The benchmark is the index, not cash. So I would see it as a 30 percent gain. But I figure that either I need to recalibrate my odds, or I need to make a bet that maximises long-run growth based on my credences. I don't think holding cash is optimal. Well aware of the risks, but I'd kick myself if I were right and didn't act. I'm buying puts so the limit is the initial investment. Can't go bankrupt. Thanks, mate.
gareth20

Or just put a checklist in your travel bag. I recommend the small refillable bottles that you can get at places like muji (no idea if muji is a thing where you are) as they mean I can just take enough for a weekend or one week , keep volume to a minimum and allow me to take my bag as carry-on. Having spares is a great reason to do this though.

gareth40

This seems a little harsh. Sure Wikipedia has many rules, mostly to prevent bias or people pushing agendas. It’s not perfect, but in general I have found it to be a reliable, neutral source of information especially in controversial subjects such as Middle East politics for example.

Also research shows that Wikipedia is a reliable source https://www.zmescience.com/science/study-wikipedia-25092014/ although I’m sure you can find research that shows the opposite.

And as the original poster says, if you find something inaccurate, spend 5 minutes to give back an... (read more)

Answer by gareth50

Seems like you’re looking for anecdotes rather than data which strikes me as strange for a purported rationalist. The plural of anecdote may be data, but the quality of those data will be low. If it helps, I had one dose of AZ and had minimal side effects (slight headache, tiredness) that were gone in under 24 hours.

9DPiepgrass
At the least, I would have expected this to be a poll, so as to get a denominator. 5 data points: my household and two coworkers suffered from (at most) temporary sore arms (4 Pfizer, 1 Moderna). Oh, and a mild headache under 24 hours. Edit: 670,000 more datapoints. Update Aug.1: after the same 5 people got a second dose, one coworker got strong Covid-like side effects for about 24 hours, starting 12 hours after vaccine administration; he basically took the day off in consequence. I'm unsure which vaccine he received. Among the other 4, the worst effect was short-lived, mysterious, temporary pain in various locations (24 hours or less).

Seems like you’re looking for anecdotes rather than data which strikes me as strange for a purported rationalist.

There's a hypothesis in my post and I'm running a cheap experiment to disprove it. Absences of anecdotes would falsify the hypothesis.

If the hypothesis isn't falsified that would justify running more expensive experiments. Having detailed accounts of side effects in turn allows setting up expensive experiments in a more targeted way.

"Anecodates are not evidence" is a slogan that's quite fundamentally opposed to what this community that founded o... (read more)

Answer by gareth-40

The risk of death from covid after vaccination is near zero and this seems to be the case despite the variants. The vaccines all seem to be holding up well against the variants so your friends info is anecdote not data. If you’re still worried, keep wearing a mask, taking vitamin d and avoid large gatherings with people of unknown vaccination status. Apart from that, assuming you are living in an area with high vaccinations rates, just get on with your life. I would suggest that the risk to your mental health from continued isolation is higher than the risk of long covid.

5dawangy
tbh, I would just ignore the anecdotes and focus on the JoinZOE paper preprint I linked in the post. I'm not worried about death from Covid as much as I am about the long haul symptoms. Death from Covid, as you have noted, is very rare among vaccinated individuals. I still wear a mask almost everywhere I go. Only exception is for outdoor dining, where it's not possible. But hey, it's outdoors.

The risk of death from covid after vaccination is near zero and this seems to be the case despite the variants

This seems to be true, but this doesn't obviously imply the risk of long COVID is significantly decreased. As far as I'm aware, no one has really studied this. On priors I'd guess that vaccines help a bunch, but I don't understand what's going on here very well.

And I think this is an important question, long COVID seems to represent a lot of the harm of COVID to young people. If case rates in your area aren't that low, this definitely seems like a valid question to ask

Answer by gareth30

There are 2 ways to interpret this :

  • people will be 95% protected from Covid
  • 95% of people will be protected from covid

The reality is probably somewhere in between with some people being 100% protected and a small number with much lower protection.

As River mentioned, this was the reduction in reported symptoms during the trials last year. The situation this year is likely to be different due to the variants and also the length of time since people got their jab, with immunity levels likely to decline slowly over time, hence the possible requirement to get a further booster shot in the next 6-12 months

Answer by gareth40

TL;DR. It probably doesn’t matter too much, but there’s little risk and potentially a small upside in terms of total immunity in waiting up to 12-16 weeks for the second dose, at the cost of lower immunity while you wait. Prob not worth worrying about.

The period of 3 weeks between vaccine shots was chosen to minimise the time to complete the trials, not to maximise the efficacy of the vaccine.

To a certain extent I would say that it doesn’t matter when you get the second shot, as you’ve already done the most important part in getting the first shot. You’re ... (read more)

gareth10

The reduction comes from the passage of time. Let’s say that a company predicts 10% growth over the year but 6 months into the year they have an equivalent annual growth rate of 2%. That doesn’t mean that they won’t make 10% at the end of the year, but it makes it less likely, so the value of the company changes to reflect that new reality. It’s important to define risk and uncertainty. Risk in this case means probability of winning or loosing something, and can be measured, whereas uncertainty is about the lack of information about a situation and can not... (read more)

Answer by gareth50

One word : risk. There is uncertainty as to the company’s ability to provide that future revenue and as That uncertainty reduces, the stock price goes up.

2scarcegreengrass
Does this reduction come from seniority? Is the idea that older organizations are generally more reliable?
3tryactions
Is this the same as positing "the market is continually surprised by the pace of technology"? E.g., say I value company X's stock at $100.  Then I learn a new fact that there's a 50% independent chance the company will discover a technology that doubles its value by 1 year from today.  If I ignore all other factors, my estimate of the company's value 1 year from today should then be $150.  If the company discovers the technology, I'll value it at $200, and if not, I'll value it at $100. For the market to trend upward as it does, it seems like either: * Everyone's consistently getting those bets wrong, and underestimating how often/how much technology will pay off, OR * There's something else to the story, like time-discounting or a different way of thinking about risk.
gareth10

Maybe we shouldn't (and a decision algorithm shouldn’t) put absolute (binary) limits on free speech, but should just reduce the exposure of ideas that have no scientific basis. Banning homeopathic information or research for example might mean that we miss out on a new discovery that we can’t measure today. “Turning down the volume” or reducing the ability to transmit ideas that have been proved (at least based on our current knowledge) to be scientifically invalid will stop people being fooled and wasting their money, or worse putting their health at ris... (read more)

7ChristianKl
What do you mean with  the phrases "scientific basis" and "scientifically invalid"? How are the terms operationalized?
2Pattern
It’s not ok to shout “fire” in a theatre, Unless there is a fire. Unless there's another reason, that isn't on this list.
gareth60

It’s unlikely that a human would be better than an AI at diagnosing covid as we already know that AI outperforms doctors on other diagnoses including breast cancer for example https://www.bbc.com/news/health-50857759

Answer by gareth50

Of course everyone thinks they are excessively cautious drivers : https://www.smithlawco.com/blog/2017/december/do-most-drivers-really-think-they-are-above-aver/

As to how I am dealing with risks - by making decisions based on the best available information. The risk of getting covid isn’t the same for all the population. Super spreader events are responsible for a large proportion of cases, and I am avoiding any possible super-spreader scenario. I don’t know anyone who has had covid in the past 5 months, so the risk of anyone I know having covid at the tim... (read more)

1Nacruno96
I knew this study of people thinking they are good drivers, which could mean everything, but not that they view themselves as cautious drivers. But I red your comment anyways 
7ChristianKl
It's a question of how you can buy happiness with money. It feels to me bad to try to force disclosure of motivations and try to shame someone for wanting to spend a large amount of money to buy happiness.
gareth60

Interesting insight - could you explain why you think they are dubious and politically motivated ? Thks

8jefftk
I haven't looked into it fully, but it sounds to me like after PG&E was found liable for the Camp Fire they're responding by trying to pressure the government into not having them be liable ("if we're liable then we just can't take the risk of operating on dry days with high-wind") instead of doing things to reduce the risk of fires (clearing brush).