There are many cases were people are jailed arbitrarily, or unfairly. At no point in a legal case is the jury asked to consider whether it is moral to jail the defendant, only whether the law says they should be in jail. At best, the only moral leeway the legal system has is in the judge's ability to change the magnitude of a sentence (which in many countries is severely hampered by mandatory minimums).
An individual's morality may occasionally line up with law (especially if one's subjective axiom is 'Don't break the law'), but this alignment is rarely if
...Even if that were true (it isn't, since laws do not map to morality) it wouldn't really have anything to do with the is-ought problem unless you presume that the entity implements a utility function which values not being jailed (which, is exactly the subjective axiom that allows the bridging of is-ought in my analysis above).
Moral oughts are not different to any kind of other ought statement. Almost all of my post is formulated in terms of a generic policy and utility function, anyway, so you can replace it with moral or amoral ought as you wish. If you dislike the icecream example, the same point is trivially made with any other moral ought statement.
I also feel like this conundrum is pretty easily solved, but I have a different take on it; one which analyses both situations you've presented identically, although it ultimately reduces to 'there is an is-ought problem'.
The primary thrust of my view on this is: All 'ought' statements are convolutions of objective and subjective components. The objective components can be dealt with purely scientifically and the subjective components can be variously criticised. There is no need to deal with them together.
The minimal subjective co...
As an aside, I think it is equivocation to talk about this kind of probability as being the same kind of probability that quantum mechanics leads to. No, hidden variable theories are not really worth considering.
But projectivism has been written about for quite a long time (since at least the 1700s), and is very well known so I find it hard to believe that there are any significant proponents of 'frequentism' (as you call it).
To those who've not thought about it, everyday projectivism comes naturally, but it falls apart at the slightest consideration.
When it comes to Hempel's raven, though, even those who understand projectivism can have difficulty coming to terms with the probabilistic reality.
The law is the product of many individuals each with different subjective axioms separately trying to maximize their particular utility functions during the legislation process. As a result the law as written and implemented has at best, an extremely tenuous link to any individuals morality, let alone society at large's morality. Murder is illegal because for biological reasons the vast majority of people assign large negative value to murder so the result of legislators minimax procedure is that murder is illegal in most cases.
But if an individual did not
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