All of George3d6's Comments + Replies

I think the point is being missed here, I'm saying if you solve aging at the level of a head now body-transplant becomes viable, otherwise you're indeed just stuck with an old mind.

 


As for parabiosis approaches, the sens take, etc -- My personal take is that it's hogwashy, biology is a faulty paradigm that hasn't yielded relevant results in 80+ years, primary gains in solving diseases come from diagnosis criteria being shifted, gains in mortality reduction are solving at the mean not at the edges (e.g. removing pollution, better ERs, broader vaccine a... (read more)

I'm getting longer term results on all 17 people and will publish everything soon~ish (1-2 months tops)

2ConnorH
Checking up on this because it looks like the market another commenter opened hasn't resolved yet.
George3d660

Had 20 people that were interested in replicating (well, more, but 20 got to a signal group) -- I gave them the protocol and nobody did it (because taking 1/4 to 1/3rd of your day to do something is hard)

I have data in n=17 people (but like, only 6 did the protocol, 1 dropout) - That looks pretty good and I want to have everyone retake the tests at some point to see if the effect holds over time.

 

However I took on a lot of projects in the meanwhile so I kinda lost track of this one.

1Dr. Birdbrain
Would you mind publishing the protocol?
George3d640

Yes, that sounds about correct to me.

George3d630

That is more like, a monitoring device based on NIR (which has little to no relation to the stimulation effect of NIR)

All of these issues are resolved by having controls and by the variance within control.

Using different tests, given that the results don't correlate very well, would be a mistake.

Increasing blood flow to the large masseter muscles seems to have a broadly stimulating effect on blood flow to the head in general. You can buy unflavored gum for cheap, or xylitol gum which has a positive side effect on decreasing cavity formation.

Never thought about this one, quite interesting 🙃

So, if we are trying to prove something like:

  • Plane A flies faster than plane B

We do indeed need to make sure plane A and plane B are the same in all instances, I'd say that engineering not science, but in the last 50 years little science has happened so people seem to confuse the two.

 

If we are trying to prove something like:

  • Planes can fly

Then the specific plane design is less important.

 

My point here is something like "I did a thing, and people seem to have higher IQs upon retesting than control, and I'm controlling for things like motivation, m... (read more)

1[comment deleted]

pinged you in DMs :) Happy to share, I don't need a liability waver just making sure people understand this is not medical advice, I am not a doctor+ not being assholes

That all sounds to me like increasing IQ ?

Like, if shape rotation is an underlying component of many valuable cognitive processes (e.g. math) and you get better at it in a generic way (not learning for the test)... that's getting smarter

2kave
Yep, the question is definitely about how far it transfers.

memory tests are included within the FSIQ evaluation

That's learning effects (: The tests are the same because psychometry is BS and IQ tests aren't designed to be retaken (even though people, for some reason, make claims about IQ increases/decreases)

1lemonhope
Makes sense thank you for excusing my ignorance / reading comprehension

actually -- dmed you my signal, ping there

Can you send me your email and phone number? 

If you can get a motivated group together I might be able to fund you replicating it as long as you're ok being scrappy because I don't have that much money to throw at this

I agree, that's why I did that :)

Within the article you can find examples of that:

-> Control before vs control after p values are provided (not looking good, p value within group alone is insufficient, can capture learning, hence why I do a between group % change test)

-> Control before vs after for verbal IQ (significant -- learning effect / motivation / shorter time between tests ?)

-> Intervention before vs after for verbal IQ (no significant -- backs up hypothesis that this works for fluid IQ only, and the control effect is learning + the advantages on time & motivation)

1lemonhope
One day I will learn to Read To The End Before Commenting. You really have done your due diligence.

No idea, I would re-do the tests on myself but I was semi-present for the replication so I'd rather wait more time.

All 3 of us might try to re-do the tests in a month and I can get 4-5 controls to re-do them too. Then I'd have numbers 1 month in.

This is also an important question for me.

The problem with dyi tests is that they have no external validation -- during my initial experiment I actually had a 5 min test I did 2x a day (generated so it was new problems each time) -- but the results from that don't really make sense to anyone but myself, hence why I've chosen to forgo doing it.

 

In terms of saturating the learning effect, that's a better approach, but getting people to put their time into doing that makes it even harder.

nwinter113

Right, Quantified Mind tests are not normed, so you couldn't say "participants added 10 IQ points" or even "this participant went from 130 to 140".

However, they do have a lot of data from other test-takers, so you can say, "participants increased 0.7 SDs [amidst the population of other QM subjects]" or "this participant went from +2.0 to +2.7 SDs", broken down very specifically by subskill.  You are not going to get any real statistical power using full IQ tests.

In terms of saturating the learning effect, that's a better approach, but getting people t

... (read more)

How is it contradicting ?

I'm saying "I don't think people that have a short enough attention span and level of interest to not even want to DM me will do a 4hr/day thing for 2 weeks"

But maybe some of them would be interested in DYI-ing it, because that's a different mindset.

So for those people I'd rather they DYI a thing.

2CstineSublime
DYI-ing it without specific steps quite simply isn't replicating it, it's doing something else, and any results - beneficial or not - couldn't be attributed to your experiment. I also assume that if you want people to have faith in the non-DYI full version of your experiment, then you need to share the exact steps similar to how peer review works and allow others to replicate exactly each step. I admit that I don't know much about the Scientific Method other than what I learned in High School, so correct me if I'm wrong.

You should try this and see, if noopept yield that much at doses where there's no CV side effects that'd be a great and novel finding

I would say this is not enough data to close the market, I'd need some 3rd party self-experimenters to replicate it.

I mean games as in "playing catch while blindfolded" physical group activities

As for calling meditation and journaling training, that just seems like motivated reasoning, under that definition anything is training.

If anything journaling would lead to better verbal results, and, well, read my analysis

2kave
I mean when I journal I come up with little exercises to improve areas of my life. I imagine that people in your cohort might do similarly, and given that they signed up to improve their IQ, that might include things adjacent to the tasks of the IQ test. And I don't think general meditation should count as training, but specific meditations could (e.g. if you are training doing mental visualisations and the task involves mental rotations). I'm not trying to say that there are definitely cross-training effects, just that these seem like the kinds of thing which are somewhat more likely (than, say, supplements) to create fairly narrow improvements close to the test.
1lemonhope
Journaling makes you love to think and hate to read. There is a clear read vs write (ie think) tradeoff in thinking styles IMO. I want to try your course though.

one reported being significantly better with conversation afterwards, the other being able to focus much better

4ROM
This might not need pointing out, but could still be worth saying: whatever your motivations, without providing much concrete evidence for a moderately strong claim (increase IQ by almost 1 SD in 2 weeks), it's hard to believe you.

and I'd actually like a "1000 ships" approach here where more people try to replicate in their own way 

 

How do you reconcile the need to "replicate" scientifically and people trying "in their own way"?

Sorry, the title was ironic, it seems that a lot of people got confused by that.

The point was more so that, indeed, there are no benefits to adding poison to your DMT...

See my correction, agree with both points, I don't think it changes the example, I did a quick google and I'm not into weightlifting/strongman stuff, so I didn't realize my misinformation was an order of magnitude off.

I still think it's essentially fair to say these dudes are "buffer" than historical dudes and seem to owe that to advances in training and (primarily) PEDs

Yeap, that was my impression. I will just confirm "no" and direct other people to confirm "yes" to you -- and, if you believe the trust adds up, you can resolve the market.

George3d62-10

I mean if I write this it will sound very weird and not be followable because it includes things like:

Do this <weird practice> but find areas with low proprioception and do it there using something like <here's an odd sub technique I did -- but you kinda have to asses what works best for you>

I am trying to replicate this with more people right now so I'd rather not dilute the intervention specifically -- hence why this post was not about what I did as much as why one ought to expect increasing IQ, in general, works.

3Shiroe
Did you end up writing the list of interventions? I'd like to try some of them. (I also don't want to commit to doing 3 hours a day for two weeks until I know what the interventions are.)

Somewhere in between actually, I tried to do something like (2) but in part I'm sure it's (1)

I avoided any conceptual/learning tasks and just did brain stimulation, non-stimulant drugs and various physical practices to avoid (1) as much as possible

You can toally do n-back training or take IQ tests to increase your IQ, and it's pretty boring.

(IMO: Small effects with cheap devices, unclear side effects; larger effects with medical-grade lasers, but easy to hurt yourself and also unclear side effects; having the sun shine red/IR light at you probably works better.

Define "small" ? I'm using ~100W of NIR + RED and my current EEG feedback + NIR stimulation prototype will be at 24W (but with clever use of interference, which no devices do at the moment afacit, if you know of one I'd love to buy it though)

1Mikhail Samin
Hmm, interesting! What devices do you use? (I meant small effect sizes)

Lovely, if I end up doing this with the LW people that data might be credible enough to close the market ?

Otherwise I can provide confirmation from the people I'm doing it with presently (all fairly respectable & with enough of a reputation in the bay tech scene)

I can ping you to resolve NO if the first run fails.

1Jacob G-W
Sounds good. Yes I think the LW people would probably be credible enough if it works. I'd prefer if they provided confirmation (not you) just so not all the data is coming from one person. Feel free to ping me to resolve no.

See my other replies:

Because it's an individualized approach that is a WIP and if I just write it down 99% of people will execute it badly.

If someone is smart enough to do this in a solo fashion they can literally google search for various techs used in various diseases, figure out what's easy and would fit a healthy person, then do it.

I posted a broad overview of what I did, I can't actually get it into a format where I could instruct someone to replicate everything well, that's practically my point... if this was pill-level difficulty I'd be on shelves b... (read more)

I believe you, but why do you only want to explain the exact stems in private messages? Are you uncomfortable giving away your work for free, or afraid that some of the methods will be ridiculed?

 

Because it's an individualized approach that is a WIP and if I just write it down 99% of people will execute it badly.

If someone is smart enough to do this in a solo fashion they can literally google search for various techs used in various diseases, figure out what's easy and would fit a healthy person, then do it.

I posted a broad overview of what I did, I c... (read more)

1StartAtTheEnd
I see! Thanks for your reply. Even if you make a perfect recipe, I don't think it will be on the shelves ever. The brain changes in response to effort, and generally only when it believes that you're doing something relevant/important. People who are looking for an easy way to super-intelligence might be the types who try to get around effort rather than welcome it. And I guess that the random participants in scientific studies might be too average as well, that they don't try hard enough to get the desired effects. I hope your experiments go well! It will be interesting to see what the ceiling is on the long-term results (and how many effects you can stack)

Because it's an individualized approach that is a WIP and if I just write it down 99% of people will execute it badly.

If someone is smart enough to do this in a solo fashion they can literally google search for various techs used in various diseases, figure out what's easy and would fit a healthy person, then do it.

I posted a broad overview of what I did, I can't actually get it into a format where I could instruct someone to replicate everything well, that's practically my point... if this was pill-level difficulty I'd be on shelves by now, but it's not, it's easy but easy at a level that's hard to reach in current social structures.

2Shiroe
Why is that a problem? Do you mean this in the sense of "if I do this, it will lead to people making false claims that my experiment doesn't replicate" or "if I do this, nothing good will come of it so it's not even worth the effort of writing".

Is this in the bay?

I'm in SF right now and 6 friends (3 control, 3 intervention) are doing a self-experiment on a version of this stuff with me.

What I'd say is:

a) Wait until March 13/14th when I will have the data, that way it's not a waste

b) If you think it's a success (I can just give you the raw data and you can run your own analysis) and you have 6 or more people that want to part-take (split control/intervention, ideally -- the controls can just go after) -- I can come over for a few days and help you set up + lend some of my hardware (I'm currently w... (read more)

Can you email me ? I'd love to set this up for you. If you're in the bay I might run a cohort for this, and if you aren't I can send you detailed instructions (but would love for you to have a control ... I am trying to get a standardized protocol so people doing things the same way ~ish would help me)

You would need ~300$ worth of equipment and substances (off amazon), and for the version I'm doing now an EEG but one may go without it I suppose.

Ideally you'd also want to throw money on some helpers along the way, I managed to incorporate most the "wowo" st... (read more)

Is there some reason why you don’t want to post the procedure here, on Less Wrong?

Can you CC me too? 

I work from the same office as John; and the location also happens to have dozens of LessWrong readers work there on a regular basis. We could probably set up an experiment here with many willing volunteers; and I'm interested in helping to make it happen (if it continues to seem promising after thinking more about it). 

Will retest in 2 weeks and probably in 6-12 months too. But some of the bits I did I quite like and I'll just keep doing

5Jacob G-W
It has been 15 days. Any updates? (sorry if this seems a bit rude; but I'm just really curious :))

Will have an update on this in 2 weeks or so.

4Dr. Birdbrain
It has been 3 months, is there an update?

I realize that I was too vague with it, I think my main point is not so much:
 

This one intervention works

Because what I did was not that difficult, but rather "there's a lot of cases of IQ increases happening and people ignore them, here's why" -- hence why I lead with a study showcasing a much higher increase and advise people to do a search and see the hundreds (thousands) of studies attesting to such.

Are you interested in replicating the experiment ?

Yup.

[EDIT April 5: I do not currently "have the ball" on this, so to anybody reading this who would go test it themselves if-and-only-if they don't see somebody else already on it: I am not on it.]

The former, there are no good tests designed to be retaken otherwise I'd use it with one.

Oh, ok, the mechanism is familiar to me and in hindsight this makes sense !

But then, my follow-up would be, if all you are doing is up/down-regulating certain proteins or regions encoding several proteins wouldn't you be able to more easily either get the proteins or plasmids or RNAviruses expressing the proteins into the brain ? Which would be temporary but could be long lasting (and cheap) and would not pose this risk

I don't particularly see why the same class of errors in regulatory regions couldn't cause a protein to stop being expressed entirely or accidentally up/down-regulate expression by quite a lot, having similar side effects. But it's getting into the practical details of gene editing implementation so no idea.

2GeneSmith
A bad enough error in a regulatory region could cause a protein to stop being expressed. But the insertion or deletion of a single base pair is not nearly as devastating. Let me explain by talking through how a promoter works. Promoters sit upstream of a region of the genome that codes for a protein. They generally serve as a binding site for a very important enzyme called RNA polymerase, whose job it is to transcribe DNA into mRNA, which can then be exported from the nucleus and turned into proteins. You can delete a letter from a promoter and RNA polymerase will still be able to bind. The "binding affinity" (meaning the strength of the bond) will be affected by this deletion, but except in rare circumstances it will still work. You can see this reflected in the distribution of insertion and deletions throughout the genome; there's not that many in coding regions, but there are tons in non-coding regions (on the order of 3-5 million).

Quite confused about the non-coding region edit hypothesis.

Either you mean "non-coding" as in "regulatory" in which case... wouldn't off-target mutation be just as bad?

Or do you mean "non-coding" as in "areas with an undetermined role that we currently assume are likely vestigial" - in which case, wouldn't the therapy have no effect since the regions aren't causal to anything, just correlated? [Or, in the case where I'd have an effect, we ought to assume that those "non-coding" regions are quite causal for many things and thus just as dangerous to edit]

3kman
Non-coding means any sequence that doesn't directly code for proteins. So regulatory stuff would count as non-coding. There tend to be errors (e.g. indels) at the edit site with some low frequency, so the reason we're more optimistic about editing non-coding stuff than coding stuff is that we don't need to worry about frameshift mutations or nonsense mutations which knock-out the gene where they occur. The hope is that an error at the edit site would have a much smaller effect, since the variant we're editing had a very small effect in the first place (and even if the variant is embedded in e.g. a sensitive binding site sequence, maybe the gene's functionality can survive losing a binding site, so at least it isn't catastrophic for the cell). I'm feeling more pessimistic about this than I was previously.

I don't think this would cover the entirety of science, it would just cover the bits that require statistical tests right now. I agree this is not a way to automate science, but statistical models are in themselves not expalinable beyond what a universal modeler is, they are less, since they introduce fake concepts that don't map onto reality, this paradigm doesn't.

As per reddit, I think the marginal donation doesn't affect anything, a trend might.

Here's a different counterfactual than what I gave on reddit:

If cca 80% of humans were lifelong sterile wuld you have an easier time getting orders of magnitude more funding for your research?

Can we force researchers to open data first ? and all medical institutions second ?

There are actually many potential data points here, they are maliciously hidden.


As an alternative, yes !


Or we could just spend more money and loosen regulations around artificial organs and potentially partially solve longevity while at it.

Second order effects rarely overrule first order effects

This is the type of argument that I expect from tall poppy syndrome afflicted Twitter users, not LessWrong.

This is a strewn about claim you can't possibly justify.


Sometimes this is true and sometimes it isn't, hence why I provide the example of artificial blood (both obviously doable with current tech and non-existent), it is the closest one I could find.

I'm of course not claiming this is a guarantee for kidney donation, but it is a possibility, and it's a possibility in which donation is destroying a... (read more)

lc*1610

There is no efficient market of moral intervention. If fatal kidney disease doubled gradually over the next ten years, society would not double its efforts to artificially produce kidneys in response. We live in a sad unfortunate world where the connection between "size of ${problem}" and "resources spent solving ${problem}" is very weak. And even if we did live in such a world artificially inflating problems in order to get more funding allocated to them would be net-negative.

This argument proves too much. A lot of people die of HIV, and more money would be spent curing it if more people had it. Therefore, it's a moral imperative to infect as many people with HIV as possible.

I think this is similar to the broken window economic argument because you're saying we should make something worse to redirect resources, but you're ignoring the value of the resources' current use. Ignoring the fact that there's already enough people dying of kidney disease to create a huge market, the money society doesn't spend on kidney disease is bein... (read more)

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