All of glennonymous's Comments + Replies

FWIW I am attacking certain community norms, and I’m trying to use humor to do that. I can understand how this can shock and offend people I care about in the community. I’ve been through similar things before and it sucks, but I sometimes choose to do it anyway. Gadflies are important. I’m not talking about this dumb bet, exactly, but the “bet” has inspired me to work on more elaborate things that play off it. For instance: https://rokosbasilisknovel.com. Seeking constructive feedback.

Thank you Korin43! I found this feedback super-useful.

1glennonymous
FWIW I am attacking certain community norms, and I’m trying to use humor to do that. I can understand how this can shock and offend people I care about in the community. I’ve been through similar things before and it sucks, but I sometimes choose to do it anyway. Gadflies are important. I’m not talking about this dumb bet, exactly, but the “bet” has inspired me to work on more elaborate things that play off it. For instance: https://rokosbasilisknovel.com. Seeking constructive feedback.

Further clarification: Zvi put quotes around the word “genius” and meant it ironically. Neither he nor anyone in the rationalist community has ever to my knowledge actually accused me of higher than average intelligence.

I get that the original version at least appears one-sided.

7Brendan Long
The bet is extremely one-sided. At the outset, you get a 21-year million dollar zero-interest loan, and if you win you don't have to pay it back. There's no upside for the other person at all. Even if you "lose", the "winner" is giving you several million dollars in interest. There are two reasons that offering this bet doesn't make you look smart: 1. The problem with the bet is extremely obvious and doesn't win you any cleverness points 2. In context, you appear to be using this bet to flout rationalist conversational norms. 3. You may also be violating the norms of the mailing list you're using (sending jokes, sending the same email to multiple lists) Specifically for the second point, rationalist argument norms generally expect people to do some combination of providing evidence, making a (real) bet, or acknowledging the lack of evidence (which is fine! not everything is legible, and sometimes you need time to acquire evidence). In this situation, it seems you made an argument that at least one other person found unconvincing. They responded in a way that (from your account) sounds pretty rude. At this point you have two options, either responding to the unnecessarily personal attack or respond to their argument. For example, it would be completely reasonable to say something like "I realize you're not convinced by my argument, but I'd ask that you respond to the argument itself, and not generalizations about me (calling me a crackpot)". You decided to respond to them with a counterargument (that you are in fact a genius), at which point the conversational norms above come up. "Bob" seems to have picked "make a bet", and you decided that "winning a Nobel Prize" is an unreasonable standard. I think you're completely justified in turning down an impossible bet, and there are several productive responses available to you: * Turn down the bet, and choose a different avenue to make your argument ("I'm not sure if we can come up with a reasonable bet for this

BTW: Presently trying to Steel Man the attacks against me.

I did get upset at being called a Troll. That is the only part of your description I can agree with. The bet is not one-sided.

1glennonymous
I get that the original version at least appears one-sided.

That is what was said. I’m also pretty sure it’s wrong FWIW... but I can’t explain why without spoiling the joke. I know this will get me downvoted. Shrug

Steve, I see how this was an offensive way to describe what Zvi wrote. He did use that word but not in the way I implied. All my (secret) criterion required was that he use the word “genius” somehow in his email and point it at me. To be clear: He meant if I won the bet, then I would be a genius.

1glennonymous
Further clarification: Zvi put quotes around the word “genius” and meant it ironically. Neither he nor anyone in the rationalist community has ever to my knowledge actually accused me of higher than average intelligence.

Hey Laura, would love to talk by Skype if you are free. See my note to Ray below.

Ray, I just tried calling you and Zvi. I would love to talk with someone who can set me straight. I understand well that people are upset and I almost certainly did something “bad” by some definition of that word. I don’t get all the hostility now that I mostly explained it.

1glennonymous
BTW: Presently trying to Steel Man the attacks against me.

Proust's In Search of Lost Time, with its famously long and complicated sentences that often take four or five reads to parse, is great for this. As a bonus, it's Great.

Read the Boring Advice Less Wrong thread periodically and do what it says.

I'm more than a little ashamed to admit I'm only reading this now, after writing about half of a first draft of what is nominally a piece of "Rationalist Fiction," Erica's Adventures In The Multiverse.. I say nominally, because reading this I realized that I didn't even know what "rationalist fiction" is, despite having read and loved HPMOR and having other, even more embarrassing reasons, to school myself in this regard.

The good news is, I'm going through what I've written so far, and I think I can salvage what's good about it while re... (read more)

I'm confused. Is the date and location in the body of the post correct or not? These "I've amended the X" comments seem to imply so, but this thread would suggest the date is now the 16th, and the post says the 9th. Please clarify. I live in Central NJ and would love to attend if I can. Either date works for me.

0Larks
Please note we're meeting at the Small World on Witherspoon, not Nassau. I didn't realise there were two.
0Larks
Sorry, it seems that when you create a meetup, LW creates two different pages, which share comments, but can have different text. I changed the text for one, but didn't realise there was a second I wasn't changing.

Great post. Here's my unvarnished answer: I wouldn't jump, and the reasons why involve my knowledge that I have a 7-year old daughter and the (Motivated Reasoning and egotism alert!!) idea that I have the potential to improve the lives of many people.

Now of course, it's EXTREMELY likely that one or more of the other people in this scenario is a parent, and for all I know one of them will invent a cure for cancer in the future. In point of fact, if I were to HONESTLY evaluate the possibility that one of the other players has a potential to improve the plan... (read more)

-2MugaSofer
What are the actual odds of that, though? Compared to the good you do (you're on LW, so I'm guessing you're more likely to do some rational altruism and save more than five lives than they are.) I would assume you're massively biased/emotionally compromised with regards to that scenario, just for evopsych reasons. So I'd be iffy about using that as a yard stick. That said, you also presumably know them better, so there's the risk that you're treating the five victims as faceless NPCs. Ultimately, it comes down the instrumental values. The five get a x5 and also automatically save four net lives, so you would have to be noticeably above average - but I'd say there's enough low-hanging fruit around that that's far from impossible. After all, it's not like these people are signed up for cryonics.
-2Shmi
Beware of the straw Vulcan/Dickensian rule "The needs of the many...". This is deontology disguising as utilitarianism. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't, and you don't have to feel bad when it doesn't.
0MalcolmOcean
There's a possible loophole in the possibility that living with the grief of your dead family (and specifically, the knowledge that you could have prevented it) would prevent you from making the world so super-awesome.
6ArisKatsaris
Of course there is -- e.g. if you care more for yourself than for other people, rationality doesn't compel you to sacrifice even a cent of your money, let alone you life, for the sake of others. People must REALLY REALLY stop confusing what is "rational" and what is "moral". Rationality says nothing about what you value, only about how to achieve it. They must also stop confusing "should" "would" and "I would prefer to".
5Skeeve
I find myself thinking mostly around the same lines as you, and so far the best I've been able to come up with is "I'm willing to accept a certain amount of immorality when it comes to the welfare of my wife and child". I'm not really comfortable with the implications of that, or that I'm not completely confident it's not still a rationalization.

My "Q.E.D." was not making the point that your disagreeing with me constitutes proof of my assertion. It was that every time I have made this assertion to anyone not already familiar with Harris' book, they immediately rejected it, making it a perfect example of the kind of thing the original post was asking for.

As for the mountain of evidence supporting my claim, the "pop psychology books" I linked to are extensively referenced. The easiest way to think about it is to consider twin studies. Since identical twins have the same genes, we... (read more)

2Hul-Gil
How far apart were the different homes - in the same neighborhood? School district? I also wonder how different the parenting styles considered were; at the same economic level in the same town, for example, divisions in "style" might be minor compared to people elsewhere, of different means. It doesn't seem plausible, but you assert the books have mountains of evidence and I am not curious enough to check myself, so I ultimately withhold judgment.

Wow. Well I see that my comment has been downvoted out of existence, which I'm pretty sure means that it is a perfect example of that the original post was looking for. FWIW, people hating on this would do well to at least LOOK at the books to which I linked in my comment. Harris' book in particular is beautifully and rigorously argued, and very useful. The chapter in Pinker is a nice encapsulation.

3thomblake
As I'm seeing it right after you made this comment, your comment has been downvoted to -1. That's certainly not "out of existence", nor even worth commenting on. On net, one out of the myriad readers here didn't think your comment was high-quality - wowzers.
0Strange7
What? I'm not saying insufficient parental nurturing is the cause of all psychological problems, I'm just saying that is a very strong claim, and that I have seen very strong evidence against it. You're going to need to make a hell of a case. (please note: linking two pop-psych books and saying that my politely disagreeing with you constitutes proof is not much of a case at all.) This makes me think of someone looking at the equations for electromagnetism and gravitation, then concluding "logically" that gravity will have nearly zero effect on the path of a projectile.

As elucidated by Judith Rich Harris in The Nurture Assumption and Steven Pinker in The Blank Slate, and completely contrary to our current cultural fad of attributing all neurosis to the failure of parents to properly nurture their children, parenting has close to zero effect on how children turn out. How our peers interact with us has a far greater impact on personality development than whatever our parents do or don't do, whether they abuse us, slather us with affection every day, ignore us, constantly berate us, constantly tell us we are wonderful, et c... (read more)

5Vaniver
Does this really count as our current culture? As an example, autism was being blamed on parenting style in 1950 but that blame has been successfully opposed by parent lobbies, to the point where I don't think it's the sort of thing that can be mentioned on public television without career damage. (It also appears that there may be some justification for the claim that parenting style causes or exacerbates autism, but that's not the sort of question people are willing to pay for the answer for.)
0thomblake
Isn't that trivially obvious for this culture, given that parents tend to spend very little time with their children? In the relevant studies, do they control for the massive penalties incurred by the default mode of parenting, or examine cases where 'peers' doesn't mean a bunch of unsocialized children in an institutional setting?
0glennonymous
Wow. Well I see that my comment has been downvoted out of existence, which I'm pretty sure means that it is a perfect example of that the original post was looking for. FWIW, people hating on this would do well to at least LOOK at the books to which I linked in my comment. Harris' book in particular is beautifully and rigorously argued, and very useful. The chapter in Pinker is a nice encapsulation.
3Strange7
No, I'm pretty sure PTSD from parental abuse is a real phenomenon.

The first answer that occurs to me:

  • I am very significantly happier and more even-tempered.

To expand: I have long suffered from mood swings in which I would 'enjoy' a month or two of borderline hypomania, followed by one to four months of depression and anxiety, accompanied by a lot of akrasia and mildly self-destructive behavior.

Before my 'rationalist conversion' in 2005, my main support system for dealing with these problems had become various Alcoholics Anonymous-style 12-step groups. After my rationalist conversion (I'll use BRC and ARC from here),... (read more)

I think I may have a valuable point or two to contribute because of some of my life experience, e.g.:

  • I had a business as a Life Coach (in California in the 90's).

  • I used to be a fairly avid consumer of various flavors of coaching, motivational programs, self help etc. (I still am, I've just gotten MUCH more discriminating -- that's why I'm here.)

My primary reactions to your post are:

  • There is almost certainly a market for the service you describe. Your big problem, especially at first, is going to be sales and marketing. I'm sure this much is obviou

... (read more)
2TheOtherDave
Note that the comment syntax around here uses two carriage returns to indicate a paragraph break and two spaces to indicate a line break.

Hi all,

My name is Glenn Thomas Davis. I am a 48-year old male living in Warren, NJ with my wife and 5-year old daughter. I was born and raised in Ketchikan, Alaska. I am a creative director for a pharmaceutical marketing agency. I have been interested in science and skepticism since reading Godel, Escher, Bach in my 20's, but became a really serious skeptic and atheist after I started listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe podcast in 2005ish. I beacame a fan of Eliezer and the Singularity Institute after seeing him speak on Bloggingheads 3 years ... (read more)

0Ezekiel
Well-put. Although, strictly speaking, you can prove a negative. Given the basic axioms of number theory, the statement ~0=S0 (zero does not equal one) is provable.