All of Grif's Comments + Replies

The comments baffle me. I think it can be taken for granted that people on this site have an elevated sense of skepticism -- perhaps not enough to repel ALL scams, but certainly enough to recognize a scam when your attention is explicitly drawn to it contemporaneously. Why are we now wasting time with in-depth discussion ABOUT scams and methodology, WITH the scammer in the conversation? And if you believe him not to be a scammer, why are you putting a burden of proof onto him to countersignal "fishy behavior" rather than simply lay out behaviors which will not be tolerated, or setting up an escrow Bitcoin wallet?

0CynicalOptimist
"I think it can be taken for granted that people on this site have an elevated sense of skepticism" I disagree. Being a participant on this site implies that one has accepted some or all of the central premises of the community: that we can significantly improve our lives by thinking differently, that we should be willing to think and behave in ways that are very counter-intuitive to the average person, and that we can learn to do all of this by reading and talking on a website. A great many 'normal' people would dismiss Less Wrong as a silly venture. Likewise, they'd be willing to dismiss something that looks like a scam immediately, without any thought at all. Those of us who pride ourselves on being clever, being willing to embrace an idea that other people would reject, and want to exploit loopholes and inefficiencies that other people have missed? I suspect we're less skeptical than the average person. Being on the site only signals that we want to be rational, and like to think that we are. It doesn't necessarily mean that we're good at it.
1Silver_Swift
Rationality isn't just about being skeptical, though, and there is something to be said for giving people the benefit of the doubt and engaging with them if they are willing to do so in an open manner. There are obviously limits to the extend to which you want to do so, but so far this thread has been an interesting read so I wouldn't worry to much about us wasting our time.
3Viliam_Bur
They also have an elevated sense of contrarianism. I suspect it's not enough to make them literally send money to a scammer, but enough to argue publicly about giving the benefit of doubt. My long comment was written for the audience. To make people potentially swayed by clever arguments remember the context -- that this is a website where we publicly talk about donating to MIRI, publicly talk about money in general, already have a lot of quality financial advice, and no one is preventing our mysterious benefactor from posting an article.

You lost me at "junk heap." There is no conscious choice available to a layperson ignorant of philosophy and logic, and such ways of life are perfectly copacetic with small-enough communities. If anything, it is the careful thinker who is more shackled by self-doubt, better understood as the Dunning-Kruger effect, but Ayn Rand has made it obvious she never picked up any primary literature on cognitive science so it's not surprising to see her confusion here.

Quote from 1971's The Romantic Manifesto.

0Robin
Sorry you're so averse to negative descriptions of the average person's philosophy. Yes there is, they can choose what music, TV, movies, videos etc to buy/view/play. Do you mean communities where the leader knows about philosophy and can order people around? It's reasonable to doubt certain things, but if learning increases your self doubt than you're doing it wrong. She was associated with Nathaniel Branden, a well regarded psychologist. Cognitive Science is a relatively new field. I don't think she's confused, she's saying something you disagree with. If you think you've refuted it, I think you're the confused one.

Unfortunately this self-debasing style of contradiction has become the norm, and the people I talk to can instantly notice when I am pouring sugar on top of a serving of their own ass. Perhaps they are simply noticing changes in my tone of voice or body language, but in sufficiently intellectual partners I've noticed that abruptly contradicting them startles them into thinking more often, though I avoid this in everyday conversation with non-intellectuals for fear of increasing resentment.

Perhaps the tooth fairy doesn't magically sense baby teeth under pillows, but she has to be sent a telepathic note from the child's parents first.

In Bakemonogatari, the main characters often encounter spirits that only interact with specific people under specific conditions, although the effects they have are real (and would manifest to another's eyes as inexplicable paranormal phenomena). As such it's more a request about shoring up inconsistencies in sense perception, than it is about inconsistencies in belief.

0Baughn
That, and I'm getting the distinct impression their world is a non-euclidean mess.

I suspect that later, when they have more presence in the public and expert view, they will open up new payment options to increase visibility of their reports, but only after they have employed significantly more researchers and run them through rigorous epistemic ethics training. Otherwise, there's little stopping a Big Pharma company from hiring Metamed for a $3,000 report, and then posting a biased summary of the report on their news page, along with an "APPROVED BY METAMED" sticker. Even worse if Metamed considers the "approval sticker" to be useful to spreading awareness of evidence-based medicine. The potential for corruption is just too high.

If someone doesn’t value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide that proves they should value evidence? If someone doesn’t value logic, what logical argument would you invoke to prove they should value logic?

--Sam Harris

If you can't appeal to reason to make reason appealing, you appeal to emotion and authority to make reason appealing.

This reminds me of

You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into.

which I believe is a paraphrasing of something Jonathan Swift said, but I'm not sure. Anyone have the original?

2BerryPick6
This is from the Sam Harris vs. William Lane Craig debate, starting around the 44 minute mark. IIRC, Luke's old website has a review of this particular debate.

You put them into a social enviroment where the high status people value logic and evidence. You give them the plausible promise that they can increase their status in that enviroment by increasing the amount that they value logic and evidence.

5Andreas_Giger
Put them in a situation where they need to use logic and evidence to understand their environment and where understanding their environment is crucial for their survival, and they'll figure it out by themselves. No one really believes God will protect them from harm...
1Nisan
You can find out what persuades them and give them that.
5Qiaochu_Yuan
Take all their stuff. Tell them that they have no evidence that it's theirs and no logical arguments that they should be allowed to keep it.

A: Embodies the Way. B: Has studied. P(A|B)>P(A|~B). P(A|B)0.

2A1987dM
“it is quite difficult to approach the Way without studying” is more like P(A|~B) << 1.

There is a hugely successful webcomic called Homestuck (maybe you've heard of it; it raised over $2 million in one month to make a game out of it) and a significant part of the comic's events are reliant on time travel. The comic itself is dense and insanely complex, so I will do my best to spoil as little as possible, because to my knowledge there are no plot holes, and in the end it all makes sense if you keep reading through to Act 5 and beyond.

The basic idea is that the four main characters are playing an immersive video game called Sburb, and the game... (read more)

It's an example of how even absurd amounts of research can fail to move a religious thought. I think too many people will fail to get the joke and the potential for abuse is too high.

The potential for abuse of this quote is too high. While it's an example of how even absurd amounts of research can fail to move a religious thought, too many people will fail to get the joke.

I stand by the sequences. When I first found them, I knew that they were/are the single most comprehensive treatment of epistemic thinking that I was going to encounter anywhere.

-1Grognor
I'm sorry you've gotten downvoted. I upvoted your comment, and it sits at -1, which means at least two people downvoted it. I guess this sort of comment sets off "ick" or "useless" filters, like the article itself does.

Typo: Next, let B be the event "X=??11", so P(B)=2 -2 ., and recall that A is the event "X=??11"., A should be X=111?

I'm coming. Wouldn't miss it for the world. I'm probably bringing my best friend along, who is a strong christian and consciously engages in self-delusion in order to avoid dark spots and stay productive. He can say some very useful things about personal finance, but mostly I just want to see what kind of effect this has on him.

I have learned today not to fluff my posts with phrases like "a dozen more runners" and "ancient Greece" unless it makes sense to do so. Upon further reflection it's also possible that Zig said "Roger Bannister was a flea trainer" in a metaphorical sense--though he most definitely used that kind of words.

The "impossible 4-minute mile" myth, also upon reflection, seems like a similar myth that I stopped believing in, that some boxers, fighters and martial artists were required by law to register their hands as lethal... (read more)

Roger Bannister allegedly broke the four-minute mile by applying a lesson in flea training. You train fleas by putting them in a lidded jar. As they jump and jump and jump, they hit their head on the lid and condition themselves to jump only so high--even after the lid is removed.

Bannister, according to inspirational coach Zig Ziglar, knew that for centuries it was judged "impossible" to break a four-minute mile, and all the negative input from trainers and doctors and coaches was erecting a mental barrier to what was possible. History speaks: wi... (read more)

This story is not true. Bannister broke 4:00 in May of 1954. The next person to do it was John Landy 46 days later. Bannister's training partner Chris Chataway did it the next year, as did another British runner. However, I think Bannister and Landy were the only two to do it in 1954. The first American to do it was Don Bowden in 1957.

I found a list for the US here Also a master list of many runners, but difficult to parse.

There were three runners close to the sub-four mile in the early 50's. The other two were Wes Santee and John Landy. They didn't... (read more)

I've been pretty excited to meet other LessWrongians for a while. Most "rationalists" in my life are so on a strictly titular level, though many of them are otherwise bright. Since I'm in Camden county I'm more or less restricted to the Philly area and I'm glad meetups are starting again. The biggest problem is that I work out of town every weekend and probably won't be able to attend any of them unless I get enough notice to request time off. I'm serious about this and would gladly eschew work responsibilities for a LW workshop. Otherwise, what is the likelihood of a meetup being planned for a Tuesday or Wednesday?

0DasAllFolks
Grif, I've added a poll (see my most recent post) that should give us a better idea of who is available on what days. Hopefully this will give us a better idea of what date and time might work best for as many people as possible!