All of Harmless's Comments + Replies

(I probably shouldn't interact, but I would at least like to perform a small case study on what happened here, so I am going to try just out of curiosity.)

Human substrate is generally optimised for running one human, but can be repurposed for a variety of purposes. In particular, while memes can lodge themselves quite deeply inside someone, this process is quite inflexible, and generally humans run arbitary processes X by thinking 'what is the X thing to do here?. 

Somewhere between the point where [the-generative-process-that-has-generated-for-itself-... (read more)

-7Raythen

A surprising amount of human cognition is driven purely verbally/symbolicaly - I recall a study showing that on average people with a native language that had much more concise wording/notation for numbers could remember much longer numbers. As a relatvely verbal person, my intuition about the relationship between observation and vocabulary would be that to know something is to be able to say what it means to know it, but then again it's possible that my case doesn't generalise and that I just happen to rely on symbol-pushing for most of my abstract cognit... (read more)

5LoganStrohl
I don't think that observation has much to do with what you do or do not store in long term memory. I think that the more direct an observation is (the more it is like observation rather than seeing), the more difficult it will be to retrieve using your pre-existing conceptual framework as search methods. It will be harder, not easier, because the thought will be more like the world and less like you, but the you who looks for it later will be more like you and less like the world. I think I spend an unusual percentage of my time making unusually direct observations, and I think this has something to do with how my memory is weird. In some ways I have an extraordinarily fantastic memory, and in other ways I have such an awful memory that I'd be worried about dementia if it hadn't been like this my whole life. If you ask me what a movie I watched was about, I'll say things like... Actually, how about I do that for real, so I can show you.  Recently I watched a movie whose name I've forgotten. Duncan will know what it was. The movie was about... I'm not sure, maybe something about independence, and I think the plot involved a funeral. I could probably piece it together and translate it into words if I thought about it for a while. But mostly I remember that there were chickens in a bus at the end, and a lot of green, and somebody killed a deer while wearing mud on their face, and a pretty red-haird girl reading a Brian Green book that was white, and there were really a lot of green plants, and a scary hospital beeping, and "Let's go shoppiiiiiiingggg!", and guitar music, and the guy shaved, and the dumb kids whose parents lied to them had to take showers. Just for a start.  But even though I can tell you details about the chickens a lot more easily than I can tell you about the plot (the chickens were white, and the eggs were tan, and the chickens made certain sounds I could imitate for you if you could hear my voice, and there were at least two of them, and I can

I’d also note that has anyone tried carrying around an umbrella all the time?

 

I have! This probably doesn't have any useful metaphorical properties, but my outdoor nonraincoat has deep enough pockets that my umbrella only barely pokes out the top, so I just leave it in that pocket 24/7.

It's nice to just not worry about whether or not it will rain, and it counterbalances the weight from my battery pack in my other coat pocket.

 

(I don't know if I'd recommend it - I have an unreasonably light coat for how warm it is so I can spare the weight budget,... (read more)

It might just be status quo bias or cynicism-driven pattern-matching, but I feel like for any given deadline, paxlovid-is-illegal is more of a "stable state" than paxlovid-is-legal - it feels like it would be easier to lock the general public into 'paxlovid is dangerous/untrustworthy/ineffective" with a campaign against it than it would be to lock the general public into a state of "paxlovid is safe and works and we use it" with a campaign for it, although now I'm actually trying to visualise a world in which paxlovid remains illegal indefinitely in the face of evidence I feel less confident in that cynicism than I did two weeks ago.

We still need to prevent this from becoming an assassination market - we need some mechanism that prevents the equal-and-opposite outcome of a professional FDA lobbyist/activist purchasing shares in the FDA not approving Paxlovid, and then going on to run a campaign to prevent it.

2DirectedEvolution
That’s a good point. I think the right frame here is “activation energy” and “catalysis.” Let’s say that for each uncertain question, the outcome is based on three factors at any given time. One is random chance. Another is potential energy - the most stable possible state. The third is activation energy - the energy input required to move from the current state to a more stable state. Prediction-market-funded activism seems like it would just provide a catalytic input for change generally, lowering activation energy across the board. So for the incentive effect to be net good, you’d sort of have to assume that on the whole, the long-run most stable states for social changes are best. You’d also assume that activation energy (incentives, coordination) is the main barrier to getting there from here. So in the case of Paxlovid, if you assume that the “stable state” is getting it approved - since it’s so effective and necessary - then lowering the activation energy for activism seems likely ultimately to result in speeding its approval. Even if it got anti-Paxlovid activists motivates good, those activists would be pushing uphill. This optimism is just a gut assumption that underpins my intuitions that prediction markets could be net good in situations like this. But that’s literally all it is at this point - a gut assumption.
2[comment deleted]

You might want to try recruiting from people from a more philosophical/mathematical background as opposed to recruiting from a programming background (hopefully we might be able to crack the problem from the pure logic perspective before we get to an application), but yeah now that you mention it "recruiting people to help the AGI issue without also worsening it" looks like it might be an underappreciated issue.

Do you think it will ever be possible to simulate a human mind (or analagous conscious mind) on a deterministic computer?

Do you think it possible in principle that a 'non-deterministic' human mind can be simulated on a non-deterministic substrate analagous to our current flesh substrate, such as a quantum computer?

If yes to either, do you think that it is necessary to simulate the mind on the lowest level of physics (e.g. on a true simulated spacetime indistinguishable from the original) or are higer-level abstractions (like building a mathematical model o... (read more)

1YimbyGeorge
My intuitive view is that human minds cannot be simulated by turing machines because  Qualia are not explained by computation.  I beleive Roger Penrose's views are similar. However useful Philosophical Zombie like AI can be created by turing computation. I Think the Blindsight novel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blindsight_(Watts_novel)  describes a world where conscious and non consious intelligences both exist.

I don't have a specific mental image for what I mean when I say 'non-deterministic', I was placing a bet on the assumption that YimbyGeorge was hypothesizing that conscious was somehow fundamentally mysterious and therefore couldn't be 'merely' deterministic, based on pattern-matching this view rather than any specific mental image of what it would mean for consciousness to only be possible in non-deterministic systems.

When you say 'require new physics that can explain consciousness', are you imagining:

 

"New insight shows human brain neuron connections have hundreds of tiny side channels that run much faster than the main connections, leading scientists to conclude that the human brain's processing apacity is much greater than previously thought"

or

"New insight reveals thin threads that run through all connections and allow neurons to undergo quantum superposition, allowing much faster and more complex pattern-matching and conscious thought than previously thougt pos... (read more)

1[anonymous]
When you say "nondeterministic" do you mean the human brain works akin to a Nondeterministic Turing Machine (and thereby can solve NP-complete problems in polynomial time), or simply that there is some randomness in the brain, or something else?
1YimbyGeorge
3rd or 4th  options

I would also note that most modern-day AI like GPT-N are not actually optimisers, just algorithms produced by optimisation processes - the entity of [GPT-N + its trainer + its training data] could be considered an optimiser (albeit a self-contained one), but as soon as you take GPT-N out of that environment it is a stateless algorithm that looks at a short string of text and provides a probability distribution for the next letter. When it is run in generative mode, the set of its weights and answers will be no different from its isolated guesses when being trained.

I think it might be useful to think about what it would mean for the sentence “time is an illusion” to be true, or to be false.

There’s a certain contrarian perspective I find it useful to be able to take, by applying that perspective to this question I generated a few scripts:

“Of course a timeline is defined as a static object – if you take time out of the world-in-which-your-model-is-embedded and put it directly into your model you’ll find that there’s no time left over for your model to change in. There’s only one dimension of time, so you can’t have a m... (read more)

2Slider
Interestingly regarding the first paragraph in the perspecitve that outcome is not a neccecity. It is not a given that time is 1D. Not every time dimension needs to be ontological time. Say that you produce a movie that has a plot that takes place in 2020-2024. Say that the production of the movie happens 2019-2021. Then say at 2022 a censor demands a change to make it more morally acceptable. Even if we remove the "24 fps" time then pre and post censor still makes sense. If we try to import "surrounding time" in our models we usually fail to do it in one jump. What is more usual that we continually import it in a way that we expect to be compatible with the future. On the set of the movie if you have film roll, the roll of the film is changing. It goes from totally empty to having more and more of the pictures burned in.
1mtaran
There's a more elaborate walkthrough of the last argument at https://web.stanford.edu/~peastman/statmech/thermodynamics.html#the-second-law-of-thermodynamics It's part of a statistical mechanics textbook, so a couple of words of jargon may not make sense, but this section is highly readable even without those definitions. To me it's been the most satisfying resolution to this question.
1[comment deleted]

My conjecture is that the abillity for characters to explain counting, equal quantities, and causal relations has been deliberately removed to allow those latter processes (with particular emphasis on the scientific method) to be used, to illustrate the general foundation of empiricism without needing to resort to an actually difficult problem where there might be genuine ambiguity about the answers. The lack of a common ground about causal reasoning and reality allows the process to described from the ground up, instead of resting on previous vague intuitions about reality and beliefs.

Weird but self-consistent explanation: The Chamber of Secrets itself isn't a Parselmouth. It's not really using the Parseltounge API, it just uses the raw audio of the speaker.

I didn't participate in last week's babble, and I also went from three stars to two stars - I think it might just be a miscount

5Slider
The post acknowledges by name that I made a submission. It seems the scoring is effectively "everybody that passed gets a new star, others lose 1 star". I made a submission, tried pretty hard, did not get any mentions that my submission was insufficient (such as not containing 50 entries (which other have got)). What is did was not a "no show" but a "swing and a miss" at most. And I would even argue that it was a swing and a babble hit. Given that the goal is to reward for consistency having this kind of rule makes it so that If I turn up to see what is up this week feel it is hard I am better going home to sleep and save the embarcement and work. I get that there needs to be a line between to flimsy go and a proper act, but distinguishing between trying and not trying is important too. Otherwise it migth lead into a situaiton where you will try only if you know you will succeed. By somewhat famous lyrics "I've tried so hard - And got so far - But in the end - It doesn't even matter "

Edit: Here's some buffer text, because the sidebar shows things even inside spoilers. Buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, buffer text, and more buffer text.

... (read more)
  1. Pick the lock
  2. Smash down the door
  3. Unscrew the door from its hinges and remove it
  4. Escape through a vent
  5. Hack the door
  6. Alter your administration records to show that you ought to be released
  7. Wait 10 years for natural administration changes to destabilise your holders until it is no longer remembered that you should be kept here
  8. Use a significant portion of your 10 years of energy to create an explosion that destroys the walls
  9. Walk out between the comically spaced bars
  10. Bend the bars to allow you to escape
  11. Dig into the wall and remove the bars from where they were mount
... (read more)
2Bird Concept
#35 is great (among many others)! 
2ryan_b
I'm not sure if it was the plan or not, but a lot of your solutions read like ways a persuasive AI might engineer an escape.

If I had to guess, the reasoning behind it is to nudge the game closer to a 'true' prisoner's dillemma (trying to work out if your opponent is willing to cooperate, rather taking focus away from it towards the shallower problem of trying to work out if your opponent is a copy of you)

8SarahNibs
I agree, and this design avoids that problem, but seems to introduce a much larger one, assuming the intent also includes measuring bots on their ability to survive in progressively more "difficult" bot mixes, which "Darwin" seems to imply. This choice also nudges me from "has noodled around the idea of hosting a similar competition many times and probably won't" to "same, but slightly more likely to actually do it". :D

Is the number of rounds per matchup going to be in the tens, or the thousands?

Edit: I just realised you specified in the post

2lsusr
The number of turns per round is at least 100 and no more than 1000. I have not yet determined the number of rounds. If practical, I will iterate until there is a stable equilibrium. Edit: I have edited the original post to reflect the latter statement about rounds.
  1. Saturn V rocket
  2. SpaceX Starship
  3. Shine a torch (the something you are sending is light photons)
  4. Point a radioactive source towards the moon
  5. Point a neutrino emitter
  6. Send data by interfacing with the satelites around the moon
  7. Invent teleportation, and then teleport there
  8. Create a machine that can exactly copy your object and then destroy the 'original', use it to get the object to the moon, and then resolve the resulting dilemma about whether it's the 'same' object with your choice of counterargument
  9. Space elevator
  10. Just walk
  11. Sit on a nuke, and then detonate it
  12. Actually
... (read more)

I don't know if this is already known, but you might be interested in the fact that you can currently use start prompts for GPT-2.

1Past Account
I'm aware of this. I'm slowly piecing together what I'm looking for if you decide to follow this.