All of hereisonehand's Comments + Replies

Did you all see this? https://twitter.com/SquishChaos/status/1383435339910418432?s=20

Basically, claiming in the next 12 months ethereum will undergo the supply shock equivalent of 3 bitcoin halving events. Curious if rationalists see a flaw with the reasoning or are already ahead of this

Is this sequence going to become a sequence in the lesswrong content library at some point? I kind of like having things in the library page so I can go back and read the whole thing later but I noticed it's not there yet.

Another weird takeaway is the timeline. I think my intuition whenever I hear about a good idea currently happening is that because it's happening right now, it's probably too late for me to get in on it at all because everyone already knows about it. I think that intuition is overweighted. If there's a spectrum from ideas being fully saturated to completely empty of people working on them, when good ideas break in the news they are probably closer to the latter than I give them credit for being. At least, I need to update in that direction.

Ya, it's interesting because it was a "so clearly a good idea" idea. We tend to either dismiss ideas as bad because we found the fatal flaw or think "this idea is so flawless it must've been the lowest hanging fruit and thus have already been picked."

Another example that comes to mind is checklists in surgery. Gawande wrote the book "checklist manifesto" with his findings that a simple checklist dramatically improved surgical outcomes back in 2009. I wonder if the "maybe we should try to make some kind of checklist-ish modification to how we approach everything else in medicine" thought needs similar action.

I keep seeing these articles about the introduction of artificial intelligence/data science to football and basketball strategy. What's crazy to me is that it's happening now instead of much much earlier. The book Moneyball was published in 2003 (the movie in 2011) spreading the story of how use of statistics changed the game when it came to every aspect of managing a baseball team. After reading it, I and many others thought to ourselves "this would be cool to do in other sports" - using data would be interesting in every area of every... (read more)

I have been watching this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUjc1WuyPT8 on AI alignment (something I'm very behind on, my apologies) and it occurred to me that one aspect of the problem is finding a concrete formalized solution to Goodhart's law-styled problems? Like Yudkowsky was talking about ways that an AGI optimized towards making smiles could go wrong (namely, the AGI could find smarter and smarter ways to effectively give everyone heroin to quickly create lasting smiles) - and it seems like one aspect of this problem is that the metric... (read more)

woot woot! that long-term thinking paying off!

Yup, it was a quick thought I put to page and I will quickly and easily concede that 1) my initial idea wasn't expressed very clearly, 2) the way it was expressed is best interpreted by a reader in a way that makes it non-sensicle ("what does it mean to say oxygen is produced" and I didn't really tie my initial writing to climate change in the way I wanted too so what am I even talking about), 3) even the way I clarified my idea later mixed some thoughts that really should be separated out (viable != effective), and 4) I have some learn... (read more)

Thanks for helping me get informed. I was under the impression that (and this is a separate thread) planting trees was a viable initiative to fight climate change, and by extension the survival of the amazon rainforest was a significant climate change initiative? I guess I'm wondering if along these lines as well, if climate change is important on the world stage, then the health of the rainforest would be as well?

**Thanks for correcting me about the oxygen consumption line - that is what I said and it was misguided

The fact that Amazon rainforest produces 20% atmospheric oxygen (I read this somewhere, hope this isn't fiction) should be a bigger political piece than it seems to be. Seems like brazil could be leveraging this further on a global stage (have other countries subsidize the cost of maintaining the rainforests, preventing deforestation as we all benefit from/need the CO2 to oxygen conversion)? Also, would other countries have a tree-planting supply race to eliminate dependence on such a large source of oxygen from any one agent?

Just a strange thought th... (read more)

Hey! Great question. The conclusion regarding aerobic exercise came from lots of the literature I was reading saying something like "the effect went away when compared to aerobic exercise." I should probably not have said "high intensity," as I don't really remember looking specifically at any intensities, but umm - below I'll list the evidence from my answer that kind of points this out. [all of this is just pulled from my big answer comment so if you want more context, look there for the link, etc]

Having looked at it again t... (read more)

Thanks! To be honest I wasn't nearly as systematic as I would've liked. I did keyword searches on Google Scholar and PubMed for resistance training and weight training. On PubMed, I specifically looked for review articles and meta-analysis in one search just to look for big picture studies, but as you can see, results were a bit sparse so I also just searched generally for any articles I could find.

I'm trying to get better at this process (ask a question, research the answer), and I'm in the early phases. Future goals include 1) having ... (read more)

From your post:

This is circular, but is this necessarily a problem? If your choice is a circular justification or eventually hitting a level with no justification, then the circular justification suddenly starts looking pretty attractive.

I think the coherentist article I linked to has some useful perspective here. The quote below is from a section in that article on regress. The first paragraph outlines a view similar to yours and raises an important objection against the circular justification view. The 2nd paragraph raises a potential response.

What is th

Have you checked out any work on coherentist theories of epistemic justification? I definitely haven't done the work to have an opinion on this, but I remember this dichotomy (foundationalism v. coherentism) being referred to in old introductory epistemology coursework.

cool. I'll be sure to get something in by the 16th.

Is there a deadline? I'm a bit busy until the end of this week, but I wanted to try my hand at doing some lit review soon anyways. I'll probably take a shot at this sometime next monday.

Practically speaking, how might I go about checking if a study has been replicated independently?

Thanks for the feedback. Will change the format in the future!

Thanks for the links. I think one concern that keeps popping up is that by reading more analysis of other papers I'm just learning others' thoughts rather than learning to think my own.

Constantin's fact post approach does seem like an effective way to cut through that.