We have a belief that X will happen in near future for any reason (but we do not know the exact number of reasons, nor the distribution among them). Then we have an evidence E for one of these reasons R which is not very probable in the world where X does not happen. What is the best way to proceed?
Say, we estimate that in non-X world the probability of evidence E is 20%.
If we attempt to divide the reasons of our X, there are a lot of them. We can think of 10 off the top of our head, mutually exclusive, and there are likely more. ... (read more)
A bayesian question:
We have a belief that X will happen in near future for any reason (but we do not know the exact number of reasons, nor the distribution among them). Then we have an evidence E for one of these reasons R which is not very probable in the world where X does not happen. What is the best way to proceed?
Say, we estimate that in non-X world the probability of evidence E is 20%.
If we attempt to divide the reasons of our X, there are a lot of them. We can think of 10 off the top of our head, mutually exclusive, and there are likely more. ... (read more)