All of I_Answer_Probability's Comments + Replies

3dbaupp
What do mean? (Serious question.) I was pointing out that you've inferred things about Konkvistador's state of mind that are highly speculative (but possibly true), but are purporting them as definite truth. (I was literally only commenting on that.)

You're basically dismissing everything I said because he has a high reputation. Fine, but why tell me?

5[anonymous]
I'm not dismissing what you are saying. In fact I upvoted your original comment and have updated accordingly. I'm just sharing where this leaves my estimation on how much Vladimir_M thought is useful.
2shokwave
So you can update slightly towards confidence in Vladimir_M's model?
6dbaupp
Stating that someone's reason for X is definitely Y, based on two sentences... are you a mind-reader?

Vladimir_M's statement sounds quite insightful but it's dangerously close to one of these "you can't prove that there aren't any dragons in the garage" type things (not being able to think up with examples doesn't imply they don't exist because their very nature is that they are elusive).

If I were to looking for examples myself - by analogy with the weird sort of thought patterns people addicted to smoking use, to convince themself to keep smoking - I'd try to think of ways to remove things I love from my life (e.g. being able to think whatever I like without monitoring or having my thoughts censorsed/deleted). Some of the Fun theory articles may be a good starting point.

8[anonymous]
I actually have a pretty high confidence in Vladimir_M's model of the world. I don't put a very high prior on the bits that are unknown to me to be very much less accurate or useful.
8Multiheaded
Total, ubiquitous and universally available surveillance, including automated facial expression and body language analysis (every citizen being, given some work, able to check out every hour of someone else's life the way we check Facebook status, plus low-level AI monitoring) is part of a short Weirdtopia story I'm writing. I've decided to set it on a planet in the Warhammer 40k universe BTW. Now that would be completely unacceptable indeed. Is, say, being on the business end of the mental health system in the worst way possible something like that? For myself, I don't consider a life with something like that to be worth living.

Let's consider writing a computer program to answer the question instead of doing it ourselves.

Program A: First it prints out 0.5 then it is given one of two inputs "red" or "blue". If it is given "red" it prints out 0.01 and if it is given "blue" it prints out 0.99.

Program B: Prints out 0.5, ignores input then prints out 0.5 again.

Now we can run the red/blue room simulation many times and see which program makes better guesses.

I didn't actually write the program, but with this point of view it is easy to see what ha... (read more)