ignoranceprior

Replying toThe case for C19 being widespread

ignoranceprior6y

The case for C19 being widespread

FWIW, if UK death toll will surpass 10,000, then this wouldn't fit very well with this hypothesis here.

The UK death toll currently stands at 10,612 according to:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Replying toThe case for C19 being widespread

ignoranceprior6y

The case for C19 being widespread

Alternatively, if the Covid-19 deaths in NY state go above 3,333 in the first week of April, that seems like it would also falsify the hypothesis. (NY state has fewer than one third the population of the UK.) Unfortunately I think this is >80% to happen.

On April 4, the death toll in NY state surpassed 3,333. As of April 10, there are 7,844 deaths.

Replying toHas LessWrong been a good early alarm bell for the pandemic?

ignoranceprior6y

Has LessWrong been a good early alarm bell for the pandemic?

The "Rationalist prepper thread" was actually posted on January 28, not January 20.

Replying toThe case for C19 being widespread

ignoranceprior6y

The case for C19 being widespread

This is indeed what I meant. Also I was thinking about once-the-dust-settles IFR, not "crude IFR".

Replying toThe case for C19 being widespread

ignoranceprior6y

The case for C19 being widespread

If the IFR is indeed .003% (the upper end of your range), then assuming the worst case scenario that 100% of the population of the UK gets infected eventually, only .003%*66.4 million = approx 2000 people will die total.

Would you consider the theory falsified if the death toll in the UK surpasses 2000?

Replying toThe case for C19 being widespread

ignoranceprior6y

The case for C19 being widespread

I'm confused why you assume that 36-68% of the population in the UK is infected. I thought, based on comments here, that those numbers were the output of a model that made highly optimistic assumptions about IFR, not an attempt at estimating the actual proportion of infections.

Do you think this is a realistic range for the proportion already infected in the UK?

Replying toThe case for C19 being widespread

ignoranceprior6y

The case for C19 being widespread

What is your personal point estimate or credible interval for IFR?

Replying toMarch Coronavirus Open Thread

ignoranceprior6y

March Coronavirus Open Thread

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model (archive)

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now,

ignoranceprior6y

What will be the big-picture implications of the coronavirus, assuming it eventually infects >10% of the world?

I'd greatly appreciate it if you could respond here:

https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/ACyGvQchWzGjGkKgS/coronavirus-open-thread/comment/LeYZeyPGndDGaMhMQ

Replying toMarch Coronavirus Open Thread

ignoranceprior6y

March Coronavirus Open Thread

Does anyone have thoughts on the recent Oxford study that claims that only a very small minority of infections lead to hospitalization or death, and that >50% of the UK population is already infected?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf

UC Berkeley launches Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence

ignoranceprior

Source article: http://news.berkeley.edu/2016/08/29/center-for-human-compatible-artificial-intelligence/

UC Berkeley artificial intelligence (AI) expert Stuart Russell will lead a new Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence, launched this week.
Russell, a UC Berkeley professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences and the Smith-Zadeh Professor in Engineering, is co-author of Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, which is considered the standard text in the field of artificial intelligence, and has been an advocate for incorporating human values into the design of AI.
The primary focus of the new center is to ensure that AI systems are beneficial to humans, he said.
The co-principal investigators for the new center include computer scientists Pieter Abbeel and Anca Dragan and cognitive scientist Tom Griffiths, all from UC

... (read 487 more words →)

[Link] NYU conference: Ethics of Artificial Intelligence (October 14-15)

ignoranceprior

10y

FYI: https://wp.nyu.edu/consciousness/ethics-of-artificial-intelligence/

This conference will explore these questions about the ethics of artificial intelligence and a number of other questions, including:
What ethical principles should AI researchers follow?
Are there restrictions on the ethical use of AI?
What is the best way to design morally beneficial AI?
Is it possible or desirable to build moral principles into AI systems?
When AI systems cause benefits or harm, who is morally responsible?
Are AI systems themselves potential objects of moral concern?
What moral framework is best used to assess questions about the ethics of AI?
Speakers and panelists will include:
Nick Bostrom (Future of Humanity Institute), Meia Chita-Tegmark (Future of Life Institute), Mara Garza (UC Riverside, Philosophy), Sam

... (read more)

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David Chalmers on LessWrong and the rationalist community (from his reddit AMA)

UC Berkeley launches Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence

Reducing Risks of Astronomical Suffering (S-Risks): A Neglected Global Priority

[Link] NYU conference: Ethics of Artificial Intelligence (October 14-15)

ignoranceprior

David Chalmers on LessWrong and the rationalist community (from his reddit AMA)

The Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence officially launches.

Reducing Risks of Astronomical Suffering (S-Risks): A Neglected Global Priority

UC Berkeley launches Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence

[Link] NYU conference: Ethics of Artificial Intelligence (October 14-15)

ignoranceprior

David Chalmers on LessWrong and the rationalist community (from his reddit AMA)

UC Berkeley launches Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence

Reducing Risks of Astronomical Suffering (S-Risks): A Neglected Global Priority

[Link] NYU conference: Ethics of Artificial Intelligence (October 14-15)

ignoranceprior

David Chalmers on LessWrong and the rationalist community (from his reddit AMA)

The Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence officially launches.

Reducing Risks of Astronomical Suffering (S-Risks): A Neglected Global Priority

UC Berkeley launches Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence

[Link] NYU conference: Ethics of Artificial Intelligence (October 14-15)