The following seems a bit unclear to me, and might warrant an update–if I am not alone in the assessment:
Section 3 finds that even without a software feedback loop (i.e. “recursive self-improvement”), [...], then we should still expect very rapid technological development [...] once AI meaningfully substitutes for human researchers.
I might just be taking issue with the word "without" and taking it in a very literal sense, but to me "AI meaningfully substituting for human researchers" implies at least a weak form of recursive self-improvement. That is, I would be quite surprised if the world allowed for AI to become as smart as human researchers but no smarter afterwards.
Ah, by the "software feedback loop" I mean: "At the point of time at which AI has automated AI R&D, does a doubling of cognitive effort result in more than a doubling of output? If yes, there's a software feedback loop - you get (for a time, at least) accelerating rates of algorithmic efficiency progress, rather than just a one-off gain from automation."
I see now why you could understand "RSI" to mean "AI improves itself at all over time". But even so, the claim would still hold - even if (implausibly) AI gets no smarter than human-level, you'd still get accelerated tech development, because the quantity of AI research effort would increase at a growth rate much faster than the quantity of human research effort.
5CBiddulph
I interpreted this as "even without a software feedback loop, there will be very rapid technological development; this gives a lower bound on the actual pace of technological development, since there will almost certainly be some feedback loop"
The following seems a bit unclear to me, and might warrant an update–if I am not alone in the assessment:
I might just be taking issue with the word "without" and taking it in a very literal sense, but to me "AI meaningfully substituting for human researchers" implies at least a weak form of recursive self-improvement.
That is, I would be quite surprised if the world allowed for AI to become as smart as human researchers but no smarter afterwards.