by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish In this post, we point out that short AI timelines would cause real interest rates to be high, and would do so under expectations of either unaligned or aligned AI. However, 30- to 50-year real interest rates are low. We argue...
by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish [Note: This is an appendix to "AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years"] One naive objection would be the claim that real interest rates sound like an odd, arbitrary asset price...
by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish
In this post, we point out that short AI timelines would cause real interest rates to be high, and would do so under expectations of either unaligned or aligned AI. However, 30- to 50-year real interest rates are low. We argue that this suggests one of two possibilities:
by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish
[Note: This is an appendix to "AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years"]
One naive objection would be the claim that real interest rates sound like an odd, arbitrary asset price to consider. Certainly, real interest rates are not frequently featured in newspaper headlines – if any interest rates are quoted, it is typically nominal interest rates – and stock prices receive by far the most popular attention.
The importance of real rates. However, even if real interest rates are not often discussed, real interest rates affect every asset price. This is because asset prices always reflect some discounted value of future cash... (read 548 more words →)