All of Jakub Supeł's Comments + Replies

There's no reason a priori to suppose that any positive or negative effects not currently priced will be of the same order of magnitude.

There are some a posteriori reasons though - there are numerous studies that reject a causal link between the number of firearms and homicides, for example. This indicates that firearm manufacturers do not cause additional deaths, and therefore it would be wrong to only internalize the negative costs.

If you think there are benefits to having a population where most people own guns that are not going to be captured by the i

... (read more)

Quite apart from the application of this argument to AI, the example of a gun shop/manufacturer is quite bad. One reason is that passing on the negative externalities of selling a gun without passing on the positive externalities* (which is never done in practice and would be very difficult to do) creates an assymetry that biases the cost of firearms to be higher than it would have been in rational circumstances.

 

(*) Positive externalities of manufacturing and selling a gun include a deterrent effect on crime ("I would rather not try to rob that store... (read more)

1Ege Erdil
In general, I don't agree with arguments of the form "it's difficult to quantify the externalities so we shouldn't quantify anything and ignore all external effects" modulo concerns about public choice ("what if the policy pursued is not what you would recommend but some worse alternative?"), which are real and serious, though out of the scope of my argument. There's no reason a priori to suppose that any positive or negative effects not currently priced will be of the same order of magnitude. If you think there are benefits to having a population where most people own guns that are not going to be captured by the incentives of individuals who purchase guns for their own purposes, it's better to try to estimate what that effect size is and then provide appropriate incentives to people who want to purchase guns. The US government pursues such policies in other domains: for example, one of the motivations that led to the Jones Act was the belief that the market would not assign sufficient value to the US maintaining a large domestic shipbuilding industry at peacetime. In addition, I would dispute that some of these are in fact external effects by necessity. You can imagine some of them being internalized, e.g. by governments offering rewards to citizens who prevent crime (which gives an extra incentive to such people to purchase guns as it would make their interventions more effective). Even the crime prevention benefit could be internalized to a great extent by guns being sold together with a kind of proof-of-ownership that is hard to counterfeit, similar to the effect that open carry policies have in states which have them. There's a more general public choice argument against this kind of policy, which is that governments lack the incentives to actually discover the correct magnitude of the externalities and then intervene in the appropriate way to maximize efficiency or welfare. I think that's true in general, and in the specific case of guns it might be a reas

I agree! I don't think consciousness can be further analyzed or broken down into its constituent parts. It's just a fundamental property of the universe. It doesn't mean, however, that human consciousness has no explanation. (An explanation for human consciousness would be nice, because otherwise we have two kinds of things in the world: the physical and the mental, and none of these would be explicable in terms of the other, except maybe via solipsism.) Human consciousness, along with everything physical, is well explained by Christian theism, according t... (read more)

The statement that they are potential lives is incorrect. An embryo is already alive and, since it has continuity through time with an adult human being (obviously actual living human), it has human identity as well. Therefore, it is a living human being.

 

"Only one life can come out of this process" is also incorrect. This is like having 4 teenagers and choosing 3 of them to be shot, and then concluding that "only one adult can come out of this process, therefore the 3 teenagers are merely potential lives and can be destroyed".

 

Why would inherent moral worth depend on the number of neurons or complexity of the brain? 

the existence of decision-making beings is the best thing ever

I didn't say it's the best thing ever. Why are you misrepresenting what I said?

Effects caused by natural laws aren't "caused by God". They are caused by natural laws. It's not the same thing. God did create natural laws, but they serve a number of good purposes as I began to outline above.

1Mitchell_Porter
Exaggerating it only a little, out of exasperation at its inanity.  If God thinks as you described, then the best of humans are more ethical than God, because they wouldn't set in motion thousands of years of wars and famine, and millions of years of ruthless natural selection, for the sake of - I don't even know what. The eventual existence of "meaningfully moral agents"?  All these theodical problems arise for well-understood reasons - you insist on believing, despite appearances, that God is both all-powerful and good. Maybe you'd be better off with some process metaphysics in which good is scarcely present at the beginning, but can improve with time. I'm not particularly endorsing it, there are numerous metaphysical possibilities, but at least it would make more sense. 

what caused the evils of the Thirty Year War?

Struggle for power between the Habsburgs and France?

1Teerth Aloke
So, did it happen due to atheism? 

Oh, an one more thing. My updated premise 2 is:

2'. Whenever John says that X, then X. ( ∀ X:proposition, says(John, X) ⇒ X )

Note that X here is not a statement (grammatically valid sentence?), but a proposition. John can express it however he likes: by means of written word, by means of a demonstration or example, by means of a telepathy, etc. There is no need, specifically, to convert a proposition to a string or vice versa; as long as (1) is true and we most likely understand what proposition John is trying to convey, we will most likely believe in the correct normative proposition (that, if expressed in a statement, requires an "ought").

"It's all for the best in the end" is not a good argument, no. Such things are justified because the kind of world that serves the purposes God had in mind when creating it (for example, world in which moral agents exist and in which their choices are meaningful, i.e. make a practical difference) requires regular and predictable natural laws, and these (again, in the presence of meaningfully moral agents) have the side-effect of causing suffering from time to time. People have the option of committing good or committing evil, and these options are open to ... (read more)

2Mitchell_Porter
According to your philosophy, an agent did cause it  - God! God chose to create a world containing abundant physical and moral evil, because the existence of decision-making beings is the best thing ever, and the existence of physical and moral evil is a necessary side effect of that. 

Ugh, you are using the language of programming in an area where it doesn't fit. Can you explain what are these funny backslashes, % signs etc.? Why did you name a variable fmtstr instead of simply X?

Anyway - statements obviously exist, so if your theory doesn't allow for them, it's the problem with your theory and we can just ignore it. In my theory, every sentence that corresponds to a proposition (not all do of course), if that sentence is utterred by John, that proposition is true - that's what I mean by John being truthful. There is no additional axiom here, this is just premise 2, rephrased.

1DaemonicSigil
Just to give you some (very late) clarification: The theory I describe above (a first order theory) can handle statements perfectly well, it just represents them as strings, rather than giving them their own separate type. The problem isn't inherently with giving them their own separate type though, it's with expecting to be able to just stick a member of that type in our expression where we're supposed to expect a truth value. You can skip past my proof and its messy programming notation, and just look here.

"we find out that we used the axiom true(QUOT[ought(X)]) ⇔ ought(X) from the schema. So in order to derive ought(X), we still had to use an axiom with "ought" in it."

But that "axiom", as you call it, is trivially true, as it follows from any sensible definition or understanding of "true". In particular, it follows from the axiom "true(QUOT[X]) ⇔ X", which doesn't have an ought in it.

 

Moreover, we don't even need the true predicate in this argument (we can formulate it in the spirit of the deflationary theory of truth):

2'. Whenever John says that X, then X. ( ∀ s:proposition, says(John, s) ⇒ s )

1DaemonicSigil
I think the issue boils down to one of types and not being able to have a "Statement" type in the theory. This is why we have QUOT[X] to convert a statement X into a string. QUOT is not a function, really, it's a macro that converts a statement into a string representation of that statement. true(QUOT[X]) ⇔ X isn't an axiom, it's an infinite sequence of axioms (a "schema"), one for each possible statement X. It's considered okay to have an infinite sequence of axioms, so long as you know how to compute that sequence. We can enumerate through all possible statements X, and we know how to convert any of those statements into a string using QUOT, so that's all okay. But we can't boil down that infinite axiom schema into a single axiom ∀ S:Statement, true(quot(S)) ⇒ S because we don't have a Statement type inside of the system. Why can't we have a Statement type? Well, we could if they were just constants that took on values of "true" or "false". But, I think what you want to do here is treat statements as both sequences of symbols and as things that can directly be true or false. Then the reasoning system would have ways of combining the sequences of symbols and axioms that map to rules of inference on those symbols. Imagine what would happen if we did have all those things. I'll define a notation for a statement literal as state(s), where s is the string of symbols that make up the statement. So state() is kind of an inverse of QUOT[], except that it's a proper function, not a macro. Since not all strings might form valid statements, we'll take state(s) to return some default statement like false when s is not valid. Here is the paradox. We could construct the statement: ∀ S:Statement, ∀ fmtstr:String,(fmtstr = "..." ⇒ (S = state(replace(fmtstr, "%s", repr(fmtstr))) ⇒ ¬S)) where the "..." is "∀ S:Statement, ∀ fmtstr:String,(fmtstr = %s ⇒ (S = state(replace(fmtstr, \"\%s\", repr(fmtstr))) ⇒ ¬S))" So written out in full, the statement would be: ∀ S:Statement, ∀ fmts

What about that thing where you can't derive an "ought" from an "is"? Just from the standpoint of pure logic, we can't derive anything about morality from axioms that don't mention morality. If you want to derive your morality from the existence of God, you still need to add an axiom: "that which God says is moral is moral".

 

The hypothesis that we can't derive an ougth from an is is not a proven theorem. In fact, it is easy to prove the opposite - we can derive an ought only from purely descriptive statements. Here is how we can do it:

  1. John says that I
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1DaemonicSigil
Yeah, it definitely depends how you formalize the logic, which I didn't do in my comment above. I think there's some hidden issues with your proposed disproof, though. For example, how do we formalize 2? If we're representing John's utterances as strings of symbols, then one obvious method would be to write down something like: ∀ s:String, says(John, s) ⇒ true(s). This seems like a good way of doing things, that doesn't mention the ought predicate. Unfortunately, it does require the true predicate, which is meaningless until we have a way of enforcing that for any statement S, S ⇔ true(QUOT[S]). We can do this with an axiom schema: SCHEMA[S:Statement], S ⇔ true(QUOT[S]). Unfortunately, if we want to be able to do the reasoning chain says(John, QUOT[ought(X)]) therefore true(QUOT[ought(X)]) therefore ought(X), we find out that we used the axiom true(QUOT[ought(X)]) ⇔ ought(X) from the schema. So in order to derive ought(X), we still had to use an axiom with "ought" in it. I expect it's possible write a proof that "you can't derive a ought from an is", assuming we're reasoning in first order logic, with ought being a predicate in the logic. But it might be a little nontrivial from a technical perspective, since while we couldn't derive ought(X) from oughtless axioms, we could certainly derive things like ought(X) ∨ ¬ought(X) from the law of excluded middle, and then there would be many complications you could build up.

God is not a human. Why would the moral duties of humans be applicable to God? 

Edit: unless you meant "God is evil by those moral standards that govern human behaviour". In which case I agree. It's not a very useful statement though. An omnipotent and omniscient being who is a creator of everything has more moral freedom to do to his creation as he pleases. For example, he gave us life (unlike our parents, he is the ultimate creator of it), so he also has the right to take it away.

2Mitchell_Porter
Let's consider two very simple forms of natural death: death by starvation and death by being burned alive (e.g. in a forest fire). You say that an omnipotent creator has the right to allow these things to happen, over and over. I can only imagine this is to be justified because "it's all for the best in the end", and the creator knows this because of its omniscience? 

One flaw with your argument though...

eventually you may see the private prison industry die

you seem to think it would be a good thing? Why?

3thefirechair
How is that a flaw?  The harms of it are well known and established. You can look them up. It's beside the point however. Replace it with whatever cause you want - spreading democracy, ending the war on drugs, ending homelessness, making more efficient electrical devices.  The argument is the path to the end is convoluted, not clear ahead of time. Although we can have guideposts and learn from history, the idea that today you can "optmize" on an unsolved problem can be faintly ridiculous.  James Clear has zero idea of what is good or great and the idea that you can sit there and start crossing off "good" things in favor of "great" is also highly flawed.  Hence the examples of reducing HIV infection rates and reducing health consequences of infection. Not an OR gate but an AND and the idea of opportunity cost doesn't really apply. 

Commenting here to explain how I voted on this comment (since it was unusual): downvoted the comment and agreed with it. I think the point stands that LW often misses things others have done and it's worth connecting them, but downvoted for being snarky about it. Yes, reinventing things is a thing LW is notorious for, but I personally don't want to see a social dynamic take hold like exists on sites like Hacker News and many subreddits where people become afraid to post because they'll get harsh comments.

"And yet there are these regular causal connections. These are causal connections (in both directions) between kinds of brain event and kinds of mental event, so detailed and specific that it is most improbable that they would occur without an explanation; yet it is immensely improbable that there could be a scientific explanation of the connections. Mind–brain connections are too ‘odd’ for science to explain; they cannot be consequences of a more fundamental scientific theory, and there are simply too many diverse connections to constitute laws. But once ... (read more)

Since qualia don't have any influence upon the external world and qualia are not caused by the physical world, then qualia must have a causal history that is independent of the physical world. The best explanation is that they are created by a mental substance which all of qualia-possessing beings have, the best explanation of which is God's creative action.

Qualia don't serve any evolutionary purpose. They don't have any causal influence on the external world at all. Which is also why we may never know whether animals have qualia (unless someone like God reveals that information to us).

How do you explain the fact that the state of the mind known as "seeing color" has the property that it cannot be accessed/observed by anyone except its owner (I hope you know what I mean by the "owner"), while the neuronal excitations can be observed by anyone in principle? Doesn't it mean that colors are not neuronal excitations?

"there is a mental state of "experiencing green", which is a certain functional state of a mind"

Alright... now, how do you explain the fact that this state of the mind has the property that it cannot be accessed/observed by anyone except its owner (I hope you know what I mean by the "owner"), while the properties of the brain can be observed by anyone in principle? Doesn't it mean that e.g. the image in the mind is not a brain process?

I'm confused. Do you think you don't actually have mental experiences?

Only a handful of Nazis believed in pagan religion. Most notable was Himmler. Hitler, afaik, considered it silly and distracting from the main cause.

Why do you think that "a god that deliberately and knowingly created a world like this is evil by normal moral standards"?

3Mitchell_Porter
God is a parent who lets their billions of children die in agonizing ways, enslave and murder each other, ad infinitum. By normal moral standards, we don't allow parents to do such things with the excuse of "they need their free will" or "it's all for the best in the end". 

There is no such thing as 'green" in the physical universe (obviously). It has no explanatory power, it has no causal power, and there is no viable theory of how it can be produced by other things (e.g. by light of whatever wavelength, since my experience of light of that wavelength could be different than yours). Yet, we know that "green" exists. Therefore dualism. 

Green is not a wavelength of light. Last time I checked, wavelength is measured in units of length, not in words. We might call light of wavelength 520nm "green" if we want, and we do BECAUSE we are conscious and we have the qualia of green whenever we see light of wavelength 520nm. But this is only a shorthand, a convention. For all I know, other people might see light of wavelength 520nm as red (i.e. what I describe as red, i.e. light of wavelength 700nm), but refer to it as green because there is no direct way to compare the qualia.

I'm not sure how the first two paragraphs are analogous to consciousness at all. Yes, the screen prints out numbers. These printed numbers are still mere physical entities. The screen doesn't really produce the number Pi from the physical objects, it just manipulates the physical objects. Consciousness is not about manipulating physical objects, as two identical physical configurations could correspond to two distinct conscious experiences.

As for something being "green", we can detect "green" with webcams and computers. My Gimp as a "anti-red eye filter" that can not only detect a kind of red and even its shape, and remove it. Being green is a very physical property of light, or of matter that emits/absorbs light. There is even less dualism in that than in my Pi example, or in any other kind of file (text, pictures, sound, movie, ...) stored in a hard disk.

Haha, no. Strictly speaking, we cannot detect "green" with webcams or computers (such an expression is only a simplification). We can det... (read more)

Oh, so then the question should be "What would I think about these arguments if I hadn't already committed myself to faith and I were an open-hearted truthseeker?". Your claim is that:
1) such a person should consider arguments for the Christian faith to be good, on balance (otherwise "Christianity is greatly wounded"), and
2) such a person often would not consider arguments for the Christian faith to be good.

Why do you believe (2)? That is, how can you know what a sincere seeker is going to think of any particular argument? Or, even worse, about all the arg... (read more)

The thought patterns you cite are not universally demanded by religion. They might be demanded by some religious people sometimes, but they are by no means a universal feature of religion. So, as a never-religious atheist, your perception of religion does seem to be skewed. In my experience with religious people, I very rarely encounter the kind of attitudes you mentioned.

Why does objection 1 seem valid to you? Something like "Jesus rose from the dead" is not obviously false; it is in fact true and has good evidence of being true.

What's wrong with not following epistemic rationality then if there are no moral truths? If there are no moral truths, it doesn't matter whether you are rational or not; no option is better than the other.

The claim that religion is a separate magisterium that can neither be proven nor disproven is a big lie indeed. But it is not the lie of RELIGION per se. Some religious people believe it (perhaps more than in the past) while many others don't. Just as some non-religious people believe it and some don't.

Why would this question be relevant? Let's say that the answer is "I would think that the arguments in favour of religion are stupid". What is that supposed to prove?

3orthonormal
I used to believe, as do many Christians, that an open-hearted truthseeker will become convinced of the existence of the true God once they are exposed. To say otherwise makes missionary work seem rather manipulative (albeit still important for saving souls). More importantly, the principle is well attested in Christian thought and in the New Testament (Jesus with Nicodemus, Paul with the Athenians, etc). There are and have been world religions that don't evangelize because they don't have the same assumption, but Christianity in particular is greatly wounded if that assumption proves false.

Why do you consider religious faiths to be obviously untrue? "They would be child's play for an unattached mind to relinquish, if the skepticism of a ten-year-old were applied without evasion." Why do you consider the questions of a ten-year old to be unaswerable except through evasion? On the contrary, such questions are almost invariably easily answerable to anyone who has the slighest knowledge about philosophy of religion and the doctrine of their particular religion. I would be silly to be guided by the questions of a 10-year old instead of the a... (read more)