LESSWRONG
LW

All of JanPro's Comments + Replies

JanPro's Shortform
JanPro3414

Prediction markets but the underlying currency is not $ but an index fund (e.g. S&P500).

People don't want to lock up their money when the world is growing and the currency is inflating.

Reply
Adrian Kelly101

IBKR just announced a new prediction market, and it pays interest on the value of your positions (fed funds rate minus 0.5%)

Reply
7leogao
One problem is that the outcome may itself be strongly correlated with the S&P 500, which would mess up the probabilities
4Dagon
Hmm, I wonder how long the term and how thin the spread must be for this to be financially equivalent to just betting the S&P500.  I think it's a promising idea to take away the first-level objection, but I'd love to hear from actual financial analysts or traders about when it's enough to get them to invest/bet.  The fundamental problem of long-dated transactions having either large counterparty risk or locked-up assets (which ALWAYS have some sort of option/liquidity value that's given up) isn't solvable, but this may make it somewhat better.  
6kave
IIRC, Kalshi has this (aspirationally) on their roadmap, but I think the regulatory hurdles are even more severe than for $-denominated prediction markets. See also Vitalik betting against Trump on EVM prediction markets by taking out a loan on his ETH to keep ETH exposure.
Introducing AI-Powered Audiobooks of Rational Fiction Classics
JanPro40

Thank you!

The Planecrash audiobook is great, and I would not have read it if it were not for the audio version.

Reply
1Askwho
Thanks! Glad you are enjoying it.
Did Bengio and Tegmark lose a debate about AI x-risk against LeCun and Mitchell?
JanPro10

Nice table and analysis why Mitchell's arguments might be compelling in debates!

I don't think the final vote means much, it just flashed there randomly without explanation after the moderator said there are issues and asked the audience for a show of hands. It could well be a system artifact or a small sample.

Reply
Agentized LLMs will change the alignment landscape
JanPro3423

Ad ChaosGPT:

Attempting to create (even weak) agent tasked with "destroying humanity" should be made very clear to be out of bounds of acceptable behavior. I feel that I want the author to be prosecuted.

Now the meme is: "haha we can tell AI to hurt us and make fun of how it fails"

  • This would obviously backfire if the substrate were able to cause lots of damage.

What I would like the meme to be: this is extremely unethical, deserving outrage and perhaps attempted terrorism.

Reply
1Sky Moo
I understand your emotional reaction to ChaosGPT in particular, but I actually think it's important to keep in mind that ChaosGPT is equally as dangerous as AutoGPT when asked to make cookies, or make people smile. It really doesn't matter what the goal is, it's the optimization that leads to these instrumental biproducts that may lead to disaster.
2NatCarlinhos
One thing that seems worth mentioning is that, based on my understanding of Alignment Theory, if some smarter version of ChaosGPT did kill all humans, it wouldn't be because of the instructions it was given, but for the same reason any unaligned AI would kill all humans - that is, because it's unaligned. It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where an unaligned agent like ChaosGPT would be more likely to kill everyone than any given unaligned AI; the whole deal with the Outer Alignment Problem is that we don't yet know how to get agents to do the things we want them to do, regardless of whether those things are benevolent or destructive or anything in between. Still, I agree that this sets a horrible precedent and that this sort of thing should be prosecuted in the future, if only because at some point if we do solve Alignment, an agent like ChaosGPT could be dangerous for (obvious) different reasons, unrelated to being unaligned.
3lc
This seems like a bit much.
5Prometheus
Yeah, all the questions over the years of "why would the AI want to kill us" could be answered with "because some idiot thought it would be funny to train an AI to kill everyone, and it got out of hand". Unfortunately, stopping everyone on the internet from doing things isn't realistic. It's much better to never let the genie out of the bottle in the first place.
awg2614

I wonder if/when/how quickly this will be criminalized in a manner similar to terrorism or using weapons of mass destruction. 

Reply
Applications are open for CFAR workshops in Prague this fall!
JanPro20

Not an organizer, but when they refer to a village "90 mins from Prague" I'd assume they mean by public transport, since it is quite good in the Prague area.

Reply