All of Jasen's Comments + Replies

Jasen10

Thanks for the info PJ!

PCT looks very interesting and your EPIC goal framework strikes me as intuitively plausible. The current list of IGs that we reference is not so much part of CT as an empirical finding from our limited experience building CT charts. Neither Geoff nor I believe that all of them are actually intrinsic. It is entirely possible that we and our subjects are simply insufficiently experienced to penetrate below them. It looks like I've got a lot reading to do :-)

Jasen200

Hey Peter,

Thanks for writing this.

I’m the primary researcher working on Connection Theory at Leverage. I don’t have time to give an in-depth argument for why I consider CT to be worth investigating at the moment, but I will briefly respond to your post:

Objections I & II:

I think that your skeptical position is reasonable given your current state of knowledge. I agree that the existing CT documents do not make a persuasive case.

The CT research program has not yet begun. The evidence presented in the CT documents is from preliminary investigations carrie... (read more)

5pjeby
FWIW, the idea of a person's belief system having some fundamental criteria has been influential on my work with what I call EPIC beliefs (beliefs that are necessary for a person to see themselves and the world as having Esteem, Predict/ability, and being an Independent Collaborator). However, I have not found intermediate mapping of beliefs to be all that helpful, since the kinds of things I help people with tend to center on concrete childhood experiences (or patterns thereof), and most all of the relevant beliefs can be found by inspecting the six layers or belief classes I call SAMMSA (Surface, Attitude, Model, Mirror, Shadow, and Assumptions). EPIC and SAMMSA are the result of spending a lot of time mapping my own and others' beliefs and looking for common structural patterns, and mostly noticing that even among people with experience at RMI or Gendlin's Focusing, it's hard to keep the mapping exercise tied to concrete emotional beliefs without wandering off into all sorts of random distractions. Based on my own experience, I would suggest that EPIC is a more basic or fundamental model than IG's are, and that IGs are simply things people believe are necessary conditions for themselves or the world to be EPIC - i.e., basically good, fair, predictable/masterable, with a place for them to participate in a meaningful "higher" purpose than just existing, by their own free choice. I also don't think that "elegant updating" is or should be a premise in CT: compare with PCT's model of "reorganization", and you'll see that their model is more basic: stuff gets rewired until the conflict goes away, and "elegant" is defined evolutionarily, i.e., what you get is what's easiest for your brain to rewire to, not what necessarily involves the most human-level elegance of belief update. By the way, when I was first referred to the CT website, my first reaction to the "evidence" put forth on the site amounted to, "ugh... these guys don't understand what 'evidence' means". I
Jasen60

I'll chime in to agree with both lukeprog in pointing out that the interview is very outdated and with Holden in correcting Louie's account of the circumstances surrounding it.

Jasen20

Awesome, I'm very interested in sharing notes, particular since you've been practicing meditation a lot longer than I have.

I'd love to chat with you on Skype if you have the time. Feel free to send me an email at jasen@intelligence.org if you'd like to schedule a time.

1DavidM
Great, I'll send you an email in a day or two (things are rather busy on my end, apologies) and we'll work something out!
Jasen400

First of all, thank you so much for posting this. I've been contemplating composing a similar post for a while now but haven't because I did not feel like my experience was sufficiently extensive or my understanding was sufficiently deep. I eagerly anticipate future posts.

That said, I'm a bit puzzled by your framing of this domain as "arational." Rationality, at least as LW has been using the word, refers to the art of obtaining true beliefs and making good decisions, not following any particular method. Your attitude and behavior with regard... (read more)

DavidM250

I'm a newly registered member of LW (long-time lurker) and was thinking of posting about this very topic. Like many in the community, I have a background in science / math / philosophy, but unlike many, I have also spent many years working to understand what Jasen calls the "Buddhist claim" experientially (i.e. through meditation) and being involved with the contemporary traditions that emphasize attaining that understanding. I see myself as an "insider" straddling both communities, well-situated to talk about what Buddhists are going o... (read more)

6Skatche
These are some interesting points. I meant "arational" in the sense that our actions are arational - rationally motivated, perhaps, but it would be incorrect to say that the action itself is either rational or irrational, hence it's arational. What intrigues me is the fact that these arational phenomena are deeply embedded in the way our minds are structured, and therefore can perhaps inform and augment the process of rationality. Indeed, some of them may be extremal states of the same systems that allow us to be rational in the first place. I'd definitely like to see this post on Buddhism; you seem to have an excellent grasp on it.
5lukeprog
I agree with Jasen. I don't think Skatche's (fascinating) story is an account of much arationality. Rationality is about having true beliefs and achieving your goals, not about acting like Spock.
Jasen00

Attention: Anyone still interested in attending the course must get their application in by midnight on Friday the 8th of April. I would like to make the final decision about who to accept by mid April and need to finish interviewing applicants before then.

2ata
I submitted my application at about 00:08 PST on Friday. I hope it can still be considered, or that "midnight on Friday" meant the midnight after Friday (which apparently it sometimes does).
4Vaniver
I'm interested in applying, but hoped you would respond to some of the questions and comments here before I did. I understand if you're not interested or don't have the time; thanks for doing this regardless!
Jasen230

But "produc[ing] formidable rationalists" sounds like it's meant to make the world better in a generalized way, by producing people who can shine the light of rationality into every dark corner, et cetera.

Precisely. The Singularity Institute was founded due to Eliezer's belief that trying to build FAI was the best strategy for making the world a better place. That is the goal. FAI is just a sub-goal. There is still consensus that FAI is the most promising route, but it does not seem wise to put all of our eggs in one basket. We can't do a... (read more)

5JoshuaFox
Yet as frequently discussed, the instrumental rationality techniques advocated here have not yet proven that they can generate significantly more successful people, in research or other areas. I am all in favor of attempting the impossible, but do you want to attempt one impossible task (generating significantly more rational/successful people in a way never before done) as a prerequisite to another impossible task (FAI)?
Jasen90

Good question. I haven't quite figured this out yet, but one solution is to present everyone we are seriously considering with as much concrete information about the activities as we can and then give each of them a fixed number of "outs," each of which can be used to get out of one activity.

9Paul Crowley
What advantages are you getting back in return for committing to an inflexible policy in advance rather than deciding what to do as the situation actually arises?
Jasen100

Definitely all-consuming.

9J_Taylor
You stated in the original post that the activities will be performed six days per week. On the seventh day, will there be time for personal research, or are there plans for that day as well?

OK. What's the purpose of having it be all-consuming? Are you selecting for people who are truly committed? Are there returns to scale? Are you trying to break people out of old habits by denying them time in which to indulge them?

0rabidchicken
Sounds good to me... I cannot say that I have ever been involved in something this long that could take up nearly all of my time, but I tend to do well under pressure.
Jasen30

Definitely apply, but please note your availability in your answer to the "why are you interested in the program?" question.

Jasen120

It will definitely cost us money but, due to its experimental nature, will be free for all participants for this iteration at least. If we continue offering it in the future, we will probably charge money and offer scholarships.

How much is it likely to cost in the future? That is, what's the opportunity cost of not applying now? An approximate answer is fine.

Jasen120

Congrats indeed!

We'll definitely be writing up a detailed curriculum and postmortem for internal purposes and I expect we'll want to make most if not all of it publicly available.

5NancyLebovitz
I hope that everyone who takes part is encouraged to write about their experience, whether the boot camp turns out to be useful for them or not. I think it's tempting (commitment bias? not wanting to confront a halo effect?) to not talk about it when one and the the people around one have put a good bit of effort into something, and it doesn't work well for some of the people doing it. However, this can include really valuable information. One thing I'm curious about for the boot camp is how quickly people can learn this sort of material. What's the mix between "that hurts, I don't have to do it any more" and "that's a major revision of personality, and it takes down time to make sense of it and/or grow the necessary neurons"?
Jasen80

Probably, though I'm not sure when.

Jasen10

Whoops, thank you. Post edited

Jasen50

That book was part of what gave me the idea. I expect most of the exercises will come from it.

Jasen110

I've been able to implement something like this to great effect. Every time I notice that I've been behaving in a very silly way, I smile broadly, laugh out loud and say "Ha ha! Gotcha!" or something to that effect. I only allow myself to do this in cases where I've actually gained new information: Noticed a new flaw, noticed an old flaw come up in a new situation, realized that an old behavior is in fact undesirable, etc. This positively reinforces noticing my flaws without doing so to the undesirable behavior itself.

This is even more effe... (read more)

2Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg)
Agreed! I started using this response to criticism several years ago, and actually got a compliment on it. I never thought of applying it to my own criticisms of myself, though...good idea.
7David_Gerard
If I did this I'd be shouting "Gotcha!" all the live long day. Let me tell you about this morning. I mostly work from home, but showing up at the office is very useful. So much stuff works better face to face. It saves a lot of faff on IRC. And the connection is faster. I got up in good time, had a proper breakfast, very nice cup of tea thank you, got myself ready, got on a curiously uncrowded tube train with no copies of Metro (that's your foreboding, I shall point out), got to work, and ... the large iron gates were chained shut. Because today is the New Year bank holiday. If I'd procrastinated, of course, I'd have been in bed till eleven like I'd much have preferred to be. This was a pretty much mathematically perfect example of doing exactly the right things to get something done, except for the fact of doing it at all. Edit: And today I showed up when people were actually here. My co-workers find me having shown up yesterday hilarious. The perfect employee: dedicated and stupid. The Book of the SubGenius does say that when you foul up, you should crow about it and call great attention to it and you will be thought of as a creative genius.
Jasen80

Jasen himself explained it as a desire to prove that SIAI people were especially cooperative and especially good at game theory, which I suppose worked.

Close, I was more trying to prove that I could get the Visiting Fellows to be especially cooperative than trying to prove that they were normally especially cooperative. I viewed it more as a personal challenge. I was also thinking about the long-term, real world consequences of the game's outcome. It was far more important to me that SIAI be capable of effective cooperation and coordinate than that I... (read more)

Jasen90

On a related note, a friend of ours named John Ku has negotiated a donation of 20% stock to SIAI from his company MetaSpring. MetaSpring is a digital marketing consultancy that mostly sells a service of rating the effectiveness of advertising campaigns and they are currently hiring. They are looking for experience with:

Ruby on Rails MySql / Sql web design / user interface JavaScript wordpress php web programming in general sales client communication unix system administration Photoshop / slicing HTML & CSS drupal

If you're interested, contact John Ku at ku@johnsku.com

2john_ku
I apologize for the embarrassing amount of time it has taken to respond to this. This was posted before the negotiations were actually finalized, which took some number of weeks. Then, in a matter of months, I ended up returning all of the equity in exchange for a computer and waived referral fee. At this point, I assume any further details are a moot point.
0Liron
20% equity stake in MetaSpring, or 20% of Mr. Ku's personal equity?
Jasen260

Jonah,

Thanks for expressing an interest in donating to SIAI.

(a) SIAI has secured a 2 star donation from GiveWell for donors who are interested in existential risk.

I assure you that we are very interested in getting the GiveWell stamp of approval. Michael Vassar and Anna Salamon have corresponded with Holden Karnofsky on the matter and we're trying figure out the best way to proceed.

If it were just a matter of SIAI becoming more transparent and producing a larger number of clear outputs I would say that it is only a matter of time. As it stands, ... (read more)

If GiveWell decides not to endorse charities focused on existential risk reduction as a general policy, there is little we can do about it. Would you consider an alternative set of criteria if this turns out to be the case?

Yes, I would consider an alternative set of criteria if this turns out to be the case.

I have long felt that GiveWell places too much emphasis on demonstrated impact and believe that in doing so GiveWell may be missing some of the highest expected value opportunities for donors.

It would have been a good idea for you to watch the vi

... (read more)
Jasen70

I was the main organizer for the NYC LW/OB group until I moved out to the Bay Area a few weeks ago. From my experience, if you want to encourage people to get together with some frequency you need to make doing so require as little effort and coordination as possible. The way I did it was as follows:

We started a google group that everyone interested in the meetups signed up for, so that we could contact each other easily.

I picked an easily accessible location and two times per month, (second Saturdays at 11am and 4th Tuesdays at 6pm) on which meetups wou... (read more)

2Roko
Thanks, Jasen. What is the turnout at these meetups? How did you find it grew?
Jasen00

Yeah, It will be recorded. I'll add a link to the post when the video is up.

0Singularity7337
How was it? Did you manage to extend your talk with some questions? Would love to see the video. It would be great to see what can be done.
Jasen20

Thank you for posting this!

Now I feel bad about not spreading the word sooner...but better late than never I suppose.

So far, attendance has ranged from 4 to 8 people per meetup. If enough people are interested in meeting regularly we might have to switch venues. I had a good experience at the Moonstruck Diner during another meetup, so that would probably be my second choice:

http://nymag.com/listings/restaurant/moonstruck-diner/

It was quiet, cheap, had a large empty dining area at the back and they left us a lone to talk for over four hours. If anyone ha... (read more)

0LaraFoster
Meet ups sound really cool. How many people have you been pulling at the last few?
Jasen140

This is an excellent opportunity to announce that I recently organized an OB/LW discussion group that meets in NYC twice a month. We had been meeting sporadically ever since Robin's visit back in April. The regular meetings only started about a month ago and have been great fun. Here is the google group we've been using to organize them:

http://groups.google.com/group/overcomingbiasnyc

We meet every 2nd Saturday at 11:00am and every 4th Tuesday at 6:00pm at Georgia's Bake Shop (on the corner of 89th street and Broadway). The deal is that I show up every ... (read more)

5Richard_Kennaway
Have a point of karma for Doing Something. The world needs people who Do Things.
1MBlume
Something like this? Should totally be on the first page, regardless of how much karma you have. Just pick somebody with plenty of karma, reply to one of their comments or PM them, and ask them to post it -- we totally will.
Jasen90

There are instances where nature penalizes the rational. For instance, revenge is irrational, but being thought of as someone who would take revenge gives advantages.

I would generally avoid calling a behavior irrational without providing specific context. Revenge is no more irrational than a peacock's tail. They are both costly signals that can result in a significant boost to your reputation in the right social context...if you are good enough to pull them off.

2randallsquared
Well, always revenge is more rational than always forgive, anyway. I would expect most people here to know about Axelrod's tit-for-tat, so maybe Phil means something else by revenge than the obvious.