All of jayterwahl's Comments + Replies

Re: elevated oral cancer risk in ALDH-deficient populations—I asked our dentech advisor Dr. Justin Merritt about it, and he said approximately,

The acetaldehyde cancer risk they describe is legit for AFR populations. However, connecting that risk to Lumina-derived ethanol production is where the argument becomes suspect. 

Their argument is that a cariogenic diet (ie, sugar-rich) might produce sufficient ethanol in the mouth from Lumina to trigger local acetaldehyde production that damages the local epithelium; that the admittedly small total amounts of

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1EGI
What you are missing here is that S. mutants often lives in pockets between tooth an epithelium or between teeth with direct permanent contact to epithelium. Due to the geometry of these spaces access to saliva is very poor so metabolites can enrich to levels way beyond those you suggest here. This mechanism is also a big problem with the pH study above.
3ManyM
FYI, when I click on that form, it says I need permission to view it.
9romeostevensit
Big crux! Thanks for the investigative effort. Sounds mostly resolvable via assay of existing Lumina customer saliva. An interesting twist: drinking ethanol doesn't just cause acute exposure but "The concentration of ethanol in the oral cavity increases immediately after an alcoholic beverage is consumed and then decreases. It was reported after intake of an alcoholic beverage that the concentration of ethanol remaining in the oral cavity decreases gradually, as ethanol flows back into saliva from the blood for a few hours after it is taken into the body [25,26]. Most previous studies of acetaldehyde production by oral bacteria, including our study [24], used ethanol concentrations as low as 11–22 mM (approximately 0.05–0.1%), which corresponds to the ethanol concentrations seen in saliva a few hours after alcohol consumption [20,22,26,27]. " From https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8204988/

Hi! I'm Aaron, Lantern Bioworks is my company. 

Thanks. Similar to the concern of "could the bacteria colonize the vaginal tract after oral sex?" this is exactly the sort of edge-case risk we wanted to identify.  We want to reward that safety-red-teaming by paying you $500. Send me your paypal, venmo, or crypto address at your leisure. 

(The bug bounty is still $100 by default, but this was high-effort and we appreciate it. If anyone has more potential bugs to submit, email me at aaron@lanternbioworks.com !) 

I can confirm that my PayPal has received the $500, although it'll be frozen for a while.

Thanks! I had a lot of fun doing the research for this and I'm working on an update that'll be out in a few days. 

Re: elevated oral cancer risk in ALDH-deficient populations—I asked our dentech advisor Dr. Justin Merritt about it, and he said approximately,

The acetaldehyde cancer risk they describe is legit for AFR populations. However, connecting that risk to Lumina-derived ethanol production is where the argument becomes suspect. 

Their argument is that a cariogenic diet (ie, sugar-rich) might produce sufficient ethanol in the mouth from Lumina to trigger local acetaldehyde production that damages the local epithelium; that the admittedly small total amounts of

... (read more)

"Things we can't talk about" in a relationship is another form of technical debt

2Adam Zerner
Maybe "social debt" would be a more appropriate phrase?

I was a negative utilitarian for two weeks because of a math error

So I was like, 

If the neuroscience of human hedonics is such that we experience pleasure at about a 1 valence and suffering at about a 2.5 valence, 

And therefore an AI building a glorious transhuman utopia would get us to 1 gigapleasure, and an endless S-risk hellscape would get us to 2.5 gigapain, 

And we don’t know what our future holds, 

And, although the most likely AI outcome is still overwhelmingly “paperclips”, 

If our odds are 1:1 between ending u... (read more)

Where did you hear that TTS inspired dath ilan's Governance? 

6LawrenceC
https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1590113143778578432 EDIT: whoops, Tetraspace got there first.
2Tetraspace
@ESYudkowsky on Twitter:
jayterwahl*11-4

Move Over, Insect Suffering: The Insect Vibing Hypothesis

I’m pretty bullish on “insect suffering” actually being the hedonic safe-haven for the planet’s moral portfolio

So as a K-selected species, our lives are pretty valuable, in terms of parental investment, time-to-reproductive-fruition, and how long we expect to live.  As such, the neuroscience of human motivation is heavily tilted towards avoiding-harm; I think the studies say that people feel gains/losses at about +1/-2.5 valences; so, loss is felt much more sharply. (And maybe the average human ... (read more)

Is the average human life experientially negative, such that buying three more years of existence for the planet is ethically net-negative?

People's revealed choice in tenaciously staying alive and keeping others alive suggests otherwise. This everyday observation trumps all philosophical argument that fire does not burn, water is not wet, and bears do not shit in the woods.

Vaniver180

I think many of the things that you might want to do in order to slow down tech development are things that will dramatically worsen human experiences, or reduce the number of them. Making a trade like that in order to purchase the whole future seems like it's worth considering; making a trade like that in order to purchase three more years seems much more obviously not worth it.

(I predict that would help with AI safety, in that it would swiftly provide useful examples of reward hacking and misaligned incentives)

I imagine that WW3 would be an incredibly strong pressure, akin to WW2, which causes governments to finally sit up and take notice of AI.

And then spend several trillion dollars running Manhattan Project Two: Manhattan Harder, racing each other to be the first to get AI. 

And then we die even faster, and instead of being converted into paperclips, we're converted into tiny American/Chinese flags

3Celarix
Missed opportunity to call it Manhattan Project Two: The Bronx.

I suspect that some people would be reassured by hearing bluntly, "Even though we've given up hope, we're not giving up the fight."

4Vaniver
I think it's been a long time since MIRI was planning on succeeding at doing the whole thing themselves; I think even if everyone at MIRI still plans on showing up for work and putting in the thinking they're capable of, the fact that the thinking is now pointed at "die with more dignity" instead of "win the future" feels like it's "giving up the fight" in some senses.

Not sarcastically! I wanted to have a Hard Mode available for those whose fasting was going well. 

Vavilov et al certainly did it with seeds available.

I propose we surround ourselves in edible seeds, too. 

2Isaac King
This was probably meant sarcastically, but I do think that having part of the tradition be "have tasty food nearby during the fast" is worth consideration. If the goal of rationalist holidays is to help us feel like a community, then this could make us feel more "special" and perhaps help towards that goal. (Many religions have holidays that call for a fast, but as far as I know none of them expect one to tempt themselves.) It's also a nice display of self-control and the dangers of having instant gratification available. There's value in learning the ability to resist those urges for one's long-term benefit.

Fair critique! Changed. 

  1. From my email exchange with Deadwyler, I took away that DARPA lost interest, and Deadwyler himself disappeared to go work for tobacco companies. And because orexin occurs naturally in the brain, it can't be patented, which means that it's hard to make money on it. 

    (I would expect a snortable cure for sleep would be worth something regardless, but I'm not a pharma company, so what do I know.) 
     
  2. Felt very different from modafinil; on a moda all-nighter I feel just mostly normal, kinda headachey, and a numbed fatigue. On orexin I still felt like
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3Stuart Anderson
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I predict that is an overly-optimistic reason for why they're rejecting the vaccine.