Consumer CPU price/performance as well as stand still GPU price/performance 2016-2019 Is probably what contributed massively to public perception of Moore's law death.
In 90s and early 2000s after about 8 years you could get CPU for nearly the same money 50 times faster.
But since 2009 up until 2018 we maybe got 50 or 80% performance boost give or take for the same price. Now with Ryzen 3rd gen everything is changing, so after 10 disappointing years it looks interesting ahead.
In 2015 consensus for AGI among AI researchers was 2040-2060, most optimistic guess was 2025 which was like 1% of people.
We are very bad at predicting AGI based on these sort of tests and being impressed AI did something well. People in 1960s though AGI was right around the corner based on how fast computers could do calculations. Tech people of that time were having similar discussions all the time.
It's much more useful to go by the numbers. Directly compare brain computation power vs our hardware it's not precise, but it'll probably be in the right ballp... (read more)