Many questions about existential risk are speculative and hard to answer. Even specific ones, like "How have the odds of nuclear war changed after the United States withdrew from the Iran deal?", are still multi-layered and rather chaotic. Because of this, there haven't been many attempts at answering general questions ones even when they could be more significant. One such question is: what's the effect of economic growth on existential risk?
Leopold Aschenbrenner's paper "Existential Risk and Growth" (2020) begins to answer this. Since it seems like hasn't gotten as much attention as it should, hopefully more people will read this paper after this book review. Since there's this good summary already out... (read 1880 more words →)
I'm currently working on this problem and feel like I'm making headway. Wondering if the bounty is still active?